Texas Winter 2014-2015

[dhweather]

We are up to 34 in Heath, DP is 14, Barometer dropping, down to 30.40 after being 30.70 12 hours ago. South winds at 5-10, gusts to 15

[dhweather]

Noticed on Levi Cowan's site:

GFS UPGRADE NOTICE: The GFS will be upgraded on January 14th. Depending on my schedule, a run may get skipped that day before I can properly set up the new model. The parallel GFS will disappear at that time as it will be the new operational GFS.

[Ralph's Weather]

38 with a dp of 3 here. May get some flurries or light snow tomorrow if we can get enough moisture return.

[Ntxw]

I have a somewhat related question on the density of these types of fronts - is there an easy explanation for why these artic fronts are typically 2-5,000 feet thick? I could be wrong but I don't recall any cold front passage (or artic) that was deeper than this in past memory. Is it a function of our latitude and warmer upper level winds that compress the height from top down? Other reasons?

I have been wondering and studying the same thing. A 1055MB high is super strong. Cold air is dense, i get that, hence the pressure increase, but the only thing i can think of why the air is extremely shallow here, and we are missing out on the truly cold stuff is because the upper level winds to come very far south with these systems. They turn the corner and head east around nebraska. We would really like the UL winds to bring it all the way down the the center of the state for a true, deeper cold

There has also been a lack of deep cyclogenesis you'd think would accompany these arctic fronts in the plains. Whether it is a result of the AO/NAO I can't say for certain but it definitely hasn't been there. The show is still beng run mostly by the EPO and in some instances WPO

Regardless looks active the next 15 days, with some reshuffling going on in the Atlantic and little change over the Pacific.

[srainhoutx]

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
308 PM EST THU JAN 08 2015

VALID 00Z FRI JAN 09 2015 - 00Z MON JAN 12 2015

DAY 2...

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST TX/UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
THE MODELS FORECAST A MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. IN ADVANCE OF
THE WAVE....MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FL ADVECTS BOTH WARMTH AND
MOISTURE OVER AN EXISTING SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS.
T AND CENTRAL TX BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL TX...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB
WARMING TO OR ABV FREEZING...SUPPORTING MELTING SNOW TO RAIN AND
RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.
THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS GENERALLY WEAK...SO ICE
AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES...WITH NEAR 0.10
INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE COLUMN CAN NO
LONGER SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...RESULTING IN A CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN.


DAY 3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION OVER SHALLOW COLD LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION SO THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TO
DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SUBFREEZING AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE
PRECIP SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST.

THE 12Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE AND SLOWER
MOVING 700 MB WAVE WHICH RESULTED IN GREATER ICING ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. THE 00-12Z ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH AND LOW QPF WHERE IS IT IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICING...SO MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THESE SOLUTIONS.


PETERSEN

[Portastorm]

Mrs. Portastorm just called me at the office to report light ice crystals falling in South Austin.

[Yukon Cornelius]

NWS has put us in a 20% chance of freezing rain Saturday night and early Sunday. Is the precipitation suppose to go further North than previously though?

[Ntxw]

NWS has put us in a 20% chance of freezing rain Saturday night and early Sunday. Is the precipitation suppose to go further North than previously though?

Sat evening and Sunday is when the actual baja system crosses the state, more widespread qpf than the next two days which is mostly impulses likely enhanced by frontal forcing. But most WFO are anticipating a warm up and moderation of the arctic air mass by Sunday.

[Ntxw]

Haven't posted this in awhile, including today and tonight coming DFW will be at 16 freezes for the season. At this time last year we had 29 freezes, December was the deal-breaker.

[Ntxw]

The ENS are showing a progression of the Aleutian low returning, then blocking off the coasts of NA and Hudson bay. With January climo I suspect that's a favorable pattern for snow. Fingers crossed.

[CaptinCrunch]

Haven't posted this in awhile, including today and tonight coming DFW will be at 16 freezes for the season. At this time last year we had 29 freezes, December was the deal-breaker.

Yeah I saw that as well, December 2014 was overly warm. On a brighter note January has been on the cold side and the pattern should hold till last week of the month. February is out as far as a opinion is concerned.

[orangeblood]

The ENS are showing a progression of the Aleutian low returning, then blocking off the coasts of NA and Hudson bay. With January climo I suspect that's a favorable pattern for snow. Fingers crossed.

Yep, with the Hudson Bay Block in place this should prevent systems from cutting to the Great Lakes, suppressing the storm track down into the southern plains to southeast US. Last 10 days of the month look pretty favorable!!

[Ntxw]

The ENS are showing a progression of the Aleutian low returning, then blocking off the coasts of NA and Hudson bay. With January climo I suspect that's a favorable pattern for snow. Fingers crossed.

Yep, with the Hudson Bay Block in place this should prevent systems from cutting to the Great Lakes, suppressing the storm track down into the southern plains to southeast US. Last 10 days of the month look pretty favorable!!

We'll probably squeeze in a little warm up just before that as the Gulf of Alaska goes into troughing before storms cut south, by nature Pacific air. But that seems transient and ridging pokes right back into Alaska shortly thereafter once again.

[aggiecutter]

The variable weather pattern continues:

[Portastorm]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
325 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-082330-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
325 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THERE ARE THREE POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 71 LATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR
FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET FOR
THE HILL COUNTRY...AUSTIN METRO AREA...SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LA GRANGE.
ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME. A MIXTURE OR
RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES
FREEZING RAIN COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FIRST
ROUND WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S AND WILL BE
SLOW TO RISE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE
BELOW FREEZING AND FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT FALL BACK TO NEAR
FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A THIRD ROUND OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING. ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES AND OVERPASSES. HOWEVER...IF THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
TREND COLDER BY A FEW DEGREES...THEN A PROLONGED WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WOULD BE LIKELY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE CHANCES
OF THIS OCCURRING ARE STILL MINIMAL BUT RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[weatherdude1108]

My parents are debating whether or not to travel into Austin from San Antonio Saturday. Birthday party is at 3pm. Not a very clear forecast. Temps. make all the difference.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
314 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES LATE IN THE EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. MESOCALE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF A COMANCHE...HILLSBORO TO PALESTINE
LINE. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SOME POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE BANDS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE TIME OF BEST LIFT
SUPPORT A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW. WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME THAT SOME POST FRONTAL WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS WITH ANY MESOSCALE FEATURE...IT IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WITH ANY DEGREE OF ACCURACY EXACTLY WHERE
THE BEST FORCING WILL SET UP. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE
TO ATHENS AND MENTION A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. IF A CONVECTIVE BAND DOES
SET UP IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MORE APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.
SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT...OVERALL TRAVEL
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

FARTHER NORTH...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...IT APPEARS
THAT DRY AIR WILL COME IN WELL BEFORE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION. WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING ON THE OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT A FEW FLAKES OR SLEET PELLETS CAN OVERCOME THE DRY AIR
AND MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE DRY AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL JUST
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/SLEET FRIDAY
EVENING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING UNTIL MID
DAY AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES MOVE INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES IT
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET.
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...WILL RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOST OF SATURDAY EVENING.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN. SINCE A STOUT WARM LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING IF AT ALL...IMPACTS
FROM ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE REGION WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ALL
PRECIPITATION FROM MID MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE LIQUID.

SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST. THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. LIFT OVER THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING
MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SO
THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION. WILL
NOT MENTION ANY FREEZING PRECIP IN THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
AT THIS TIME.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-091200-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
349 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

...WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE ARE FRIDAY MORNING AT A TIME WHEN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING WILL FREEZE ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY MORNING ARE ALONG AND NORTH
OF A CALDWELL TO LIVINGSTON LINE WITH MADISONVILLE...CROCKETT AND
TRINITY AREAS MOST LIKELY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ICING OF
ELEVATED SURFACES BUT MOST LIKELY JUST A LIGHT GLAZE ON GRASSY
AREAS AND TREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. MOST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE WARMER PARTS OF
THE DAY /WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING/...SO MAIN IMPACTS
FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR OVER ELEVATED SURFACES IF
ANY IMPACTS DO DEVELOP.

SOUTHEAST TEXAS RESIDENTS AND THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
OR WHO HAVE TRAVEL PLANS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION BY FOLLOWING LOCAL
MEDIA...LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...VISITING OUR WEBSITE

[Longhornmaniac8]

Seems like EWX's thinking is starting to come into line with what the rest of us have been saying. With temperatures missing the mark by a few degrees, and more moisture returning to the area, I'm starting to think we may be looking at an extended period of time at or below freezing.

Just my opinion, of course, and I'm not a pro met.

[Shoshana]

Mrs. Portastorm just called me at the office to report light ice crystals falling in South Austin.

NE Austin: 34 and rain