Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

Yeah i wouldnt rule out something small scale leading up to Christmas(snow as the precip ends Saturday morning. Flurries Xmas eve) but the timeframe after has big dog potential and has consistently shown a big signal on the ensembles

The only reason the post Christmas storm isnt a big dog is because the gfs warms it up but that warmup has no support from the ensembles

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Current NAM at 60 hours

[wxman57]

18z GFS with the most epic winter storm ever as most of Texas and Louisiana are destroyed.

Just saw that. Yeah, I'm sure it's right THIS time. New Year's Day ice storm. It's not looking like we'll see any frozen precip across Texas prior to Christmas. Cold and dry the 24th-25th. Keep watching the NW Canada source region for signs of significant cold. There's currently a little bit of cold air in central Canada, but nothing in western Canada, which is typically our source region. Even less cold air across the Pole. True, even above-normal temps in Siberia are pretty cold.

[Portastorm]

Let's be honest with ourselves ... the GFS in the last week has been Cat Five-n in the Gulf a lot!

Right dhweather?!

[aggiecutter]

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TORNADO WARNING for Rusk to Reklaw, Texas! Strong rotation near Rusk as of 7:10 pm CST!

[1900hurricane]

I've been keeping an eye on that cell since it formed near Hearne earlier. It was certainly the most impressive of the bunch, and the CAMs were pretty consistent in showing a decent cell tracking around there. Not chase worthy for a number of reasons, but one to watch out for given the environment in place. Like I mentioned earlier, the SPC does have a Marginal Risk up for a reason.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Let's be honest with ourselves ... the GFS in the last week has been Cat Five-n in the Gulf a lot!

Right dhweather?!

Was just thinking about that. Before long the GFS will be showing some canes in the gulf instead of winter storms for the south

[Tireman4]

I know nothing

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/943299454274334721




Low level shear from that KSHV sounding is hellacious.

[aggiecutter]

A very tight couplet SE of Tyler. Not sure what communities are in that vicinity:

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yep, 288hr the snow starts. Its finally happening!

The pattern looks beautiful though, at least its nice to look at.

Question, what makes the energy "hang back" in the SW like this? Is it an embedded SW that digs with a jet streak? Always wondered how this occurs and the models can predict this. It is VERY important to whether precip is thrown over the cold air. Thanks!

[Ntxw]

Latest NAM continues the trend of keeping the storm more intact later this week as cold air moves in. Now has rain with it and no longer a positive tilt sheared system. Could this be another whiff that was lost in the medium range but brought back as it nears?



A little more south and a little harder on the cold push and maybe in business?

[ravyrn]

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TORNADO WARNING for Rusk to Reklaw, Texas! Strong rotation near Rusk as of 7:10 pm CST!

I was in Maydelle as that storm was passing. Lots of lightning and heavy rain. I was out on the backroads and the rain was pouring so hard I couldn't tell whether or not I was on the road. I had to stop twice. On FM 2138 a few miles north of Maydelle towards Jacksonville there was debris and several branches on the road. I'm not sure if the rotation passed right over that area, but there was definitely some wind. No power on that 10 mile stretch of highway from Maydelle to Jacksonville.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah that's what I'm thinking might happen. I wouldn't be surprised if the models continue to trend that way over the next few days.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Yeah that's what I'm thinking might happen. I wouldn't be surprised if the models continue to trend that way over the next few days.

It will be onshore here pretty soon by tomorrow. Also a phase by the incoming trough behind it would be interesting if that ever plays out.

[starsfan65]

[quote="Ntxw"]Latest NAM continues the trend of keeping the storm more intact later this week as cold air moves in. Now has rain with it and no longer a positive tilt sheared system. Could this be another whiff that was lost in the medium range but brought back as it nears?



what will the temps be when the system moves in?

[Ntxw]

Latest NAM continues the trend of keeping the storm more intact later this week as cold air moves in. Now has rain with it and no longer a positive tilt sheared system. Could this be another whiff that was lost in the medium range but brought back as it nears?

http://i66.tinypic.com/ejfo7s.png

what will the temps be when the system moves in?

NAM has surface temps in the mid 30s and 850s approaching 0C in a cold pocket with the ULL. If the system is stronger (think Canadian) then it's a matter of track for something more interesting.

Remember Christmas Eve 2009 days before the models sort of had a similar trend. They kept putting the snow in Kansas/missouri but the low kept digging as incoming trough phased with it last minute. GFS kept saying positive trough, positive trough but the incoming vorticity pushed it out negative tilt.

[gboudx]

I mentioned several pages ago that Wednesday was the day I start taking notice of what the models show. It would be the start of the range where the models would start showing what everyone went nuts over late last week. Let's see.....

[Brent]

Rain and mid 30s that's how the last snowstorm started lol

[TwisterFanatic]

Some Oklahoma mets that I follow on facebook are still calling for a snow storm this weekend for most of Oklahoma into far northern Texas.

Most are calling for some light snow on Christmas eve, but haven't seen anyone claiming snowstorm at all.