Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

I think the NWS discussion was a bit off. A high of 47 in Seattle is 4 degrees below normal for this date...not exactly summer. I think people are getting dillusional! How on Earth is 13 days in a row with subfreezing low temps summer? Come on guys! This month is averaging below normal! I guess we can all see what we want in this.

With the east wind kicking up in North Bend, that means the areas in the foothills blocked from the east wind will be in the 20s again.

I think one thing we can all agree on, is the fact that what we are seeing is just plain freakish. The weather has not behaved like this in eons! I think the only real matches to this are from the late 1920s and 1930s. It is just totally whacked!

[snow_wizzard]

By the way...I pretty much gave up on any more Arctic air about a week ago. I will never say never though. All it would take is for that big high to retrogress, and we would be in it. That having been said, it's only a very small chance. On the other hand, I will say with confidence that we are going to pay the price for this current weather before this year is over!

It could be kind of fun if we have a rotten summer, telling everyone that winter has already begun. That would be just as ridiculous as what everyone is saying now.

[andycottle]

Randy...if your still up, here`s a few weather photos I shot while back in Bellbrook, Ohio last summer. And to the others here...your very much welcomed to view my pics. -- Andy

Cirrus clouds#2
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

Cirrus clouds#1
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

Cumulus congestus#3 http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

Cumulus congestus cloud#5 http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

sunrise from plane window
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

sunset
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

[snow_wizzard]

The Canadian ensemble totally supports the GFS concerning the big ridge building over us, after a few days of rain. However, it does hint that the GFS showing heights 582 may be overblown.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ense ... 240_e.html

On this, I am hoping for the most over the top, unbelieveable, ludicrous outcome possible. If it wants to hit 80, I'm game!

[TT-SEA]

How does 56 degrees at 10:30 at night sound??

Like summer!!

That is the current temperature at our house.

Feels like a July night. Tomorrow should be awesome.

[andrewr]

I've got 34 so the wind isn't quite strong enough to affect my house this far west. Although it sounds like it will be increasing throughout tomorrow so I should notice the temperature go way up then.

EDIT: TT-SEA, still think we are going to have a wild March or are we going to be sitting under a ridge for the next few weeks?

[AnthonyC]

Dude, I just lost 20 bucks at poker tonight. I'm an amateur compared to some of my friends. I'm pretty pissed!

As for tomorrow, another beautiful day...but it's finally the transition day. The only storm that has some potential is Tuesday/Tuesday night...we might pick up some beneficial rain in the lowlands, snow in the mountains. But by Saturday, another mean upper level ridge develops in Western Canada and we're back to a Rex block. I guess only time will tell.

Well, off to bed...hopefully that money will come floating back to me in my dreams!! Man, I'm usually not that bad...but I was just having a bad night overall!

Anthony

Currently 37F with clear conditions.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...You need to mention what your low was last night! I tell you the numbers are on my side this month. Below normal temperature average. I have heard more than one person complain about the endless cold nights. Tonight is going to be the 14th consecutive low of 32 or below in many areas. The longest string in YEARS!

[AnthonyC]

Snow_Wizzard,

What's up with you and cold weather?! Why do you want record cold?! And the only reason why there's been such a streak is because of radiational cooling and clear skies. There's been no actual weather pattern that has produced such a string of cold overnight lows. Typically in winter you don't see clear skies thus it's never cold at night. But there's no "arctic" airmass that is creating these cold, overnight lows. I just find it funny you keep emphasizing how cold it is at night and how winter-like it feels, yet in the daytime it's almost 60F with sunshine. That doesn't point to winter at all!

Anthony

[andycottle]

36 degrees here at 11:13pm with humidity 100% and clear skies. Though from the latest satellite images, there are high clouds over Western, OR. right now. -- Andy

[andrewr]

Anthony's right. It's not winter...but it's not fall or summer or spring either; it's just odd.

[TT-SEA]

Exactly Anthony.

Perfectly stated.

But I cut Snow-Wizzard some slack because he so dearly loves cold weather!!

Still... this is just radiational cooling. The pattern is one of high pressure. I have heard LOTS of people talking about the warm weather and nobody complaining about frost while they sleep.

I guess it was cool this morning here... but we did not get up until almost 9 a.m. and by that time it was sunny and warm and any frost was gone. We spent the day around our new house and in the actual city of North Bend with my parents. I was in shorts and my parents in t-shirts and in the sun it was perfect. It was actually very warm going for a walk around noon by the house we are building. It was in the 60's but it felt like the 70's.

Frost while you're sleeping is so minor. The sun and warmth of the daytime is what matters most.

[Guest]

Anthony, when these type of temperature swings happened a long time ago, Highs in the 50's and lows in the 20's, it was because of radiational cooling as well... It doesn't really matter how it comes, as long as it comes... Everyone else is emphisizing the warm weather... The only reason it is warm is because it is sunny and we had an offshore flow for so long...That doesn't usually happen in the winter... So there is a case for both sides... Just depends on how you look at it... Another thing I think SNOWWIZZ is getting at is that this is sooo unusual... Even you said the only reason we are getting cold at night is because of the unusual clearing for so long... UNUSUAL... EXACTLY... It's not the RECORD COLD TEMPS WE REALLY WANT... It's the unusualness.. if that's a word...

[Guest]

TT you say the daytime is what matters most... But that's only to what we feel... WEather could care less to how we feel... And the offshore flow helped the cold nights... With onshore flow we would have been in the mid 30's.

[snow_wizzard]

All I can say is that large numbers of sub freezing lows occur during our cold climate phases. That is regardless of the cause. Just clear skies do not create the low to mid 20s we have been seeing. It takes continental air to make it that cold. In our cold climate phases we get large numbers of cold low temps both from Arctic air, and just simple radiational cooling. Warm climate phases get much fewer of both types. I am harping on this because it is a sign we have entered a new phase. No matter how you slice it, a below normal monthly average is more a sign of being in a cold regime than a warm one....

By the way...do not forget that we have had 3 cold fronts drop down from Alaska this month. Another thing that strongly indicates something is up. The characteristics of those fronts reminds me of ones in the cold years of the 80s. Each front brought in a new shot of cold air, that helped sustain the impressive string of cold nights we have seen. How can you not be impressed by the fact that this month will have the lowest average minimum of any month since Feb 1993? That is 12 years ago! This is also the most lows of 32 or below since Feb 1993. This has meaning. I think the big problem is that I am looking at this as a climatologist more than a meteorologist. Climatology is really my forte. The past holds so many clues to what the future may hold. All I can say, is I am liking what I'm seeing!

[Guest]

The offshore flow is what made us so warm in the days and so cold at night... Without the offshore flow it would have been a regular 50-35 day... Boring and normal... Nothing out of the ordinary...

[TT-SEA]

On this point I agree.

This is an extremely rare pattern. Most notably the lack of rainfall and the persistent sunshine. Also... the almost impossibly heavy rains in California.

It could very well mean that we have entered a new phase.

I still think it has been very spring-like. But definitely strange.

[snow_wizzard]

Well, I'll be dipped...even the NWS has made the mistake about the 2 degree record low for this date! The record is from 1951, and it was 28 not 2. I wonder how that got started? I have seen that on several sites now.

At any rate...the weekly average for Sea - Tac came in at a rather unsummerlike 0.8 degrees below normal. That is after the several degree below normal average for last week. By the way...I give special thanks to the 4 degree below normal HIGH today for making this weeks average lower than I expected!

To further answer Anthony's question...I like below normal temperatures all though the year, because history says our cold phases are cold throughout the year, not only in the winter. We get our exciting weather during the cold phases, so I want it cold...always. Few people realize that our summers used to be both cooler and drier than they are now. I can't imagine a better summer than cool and crystal clear. September like weather in July. Bring it on!

Already down to 32 in Covington. YET another cold night. Wow!!! What a run!

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I appreciate your understanding in my cold weather addiction! Another thing is that I am a night owl, and probably experience more of the deliciously cold and crisp nighttime air than the average person.

When Scott Sistek first introduced me to Brennan via email, I was shocked at how much he (Brennan) is like me. The same, shall we call it, obsession with cold weather. I hope you don't mind me mentioning that Brennan!

[Guest]

Of Course not SnowWizzard I am actually proud to let everyone know that I am a cold lover... LOL... I don't think anyone on here actually knew that we talk to each other away from this forum... maybe now they'll understand why were are always on the same side of things...