Texas Winter 2010-2011

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downsouthman1
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2761 Postby downsouthman1 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 4:18 pm

natlib wrote:What I'm seeing and reading suggests more an East of I-35 storm if it happens. Am I going to be completely left out of the fun here in San Angelo this year?


No, I don't believe you'll be left out. I think the Models are having an extremely difficult time in the short term. That's why people are spending so much time looking at the long term Models, that have shown decent consistency (relatively) with regards to cold air diving south soon. Any moisture over the top is gonna cause problems. San Angelo is still, within reason, as much under the radar as anywhere else. Our problems seem to be short term Models waffling so much. This seems to have something to do with the fact that the overall pattern is relatively new to the Models, so they don't know how to interpret it, since much of their interpretation is based on climate & current trends. I'm saying that these current trends are relatively new to the Models, so much so that even FW NWS will not go out on a limb. They won't even address this until I'm assuming Jan 26th or 27th at the earliest.
Last edited by downsouthman1 on Fri Jan 21, 2011 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2762 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 4:19 pm

I know this is a Texas weather thread, but look at what the Chicago and Green Bay game gets to deal with on Sunday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 87.685&e=1

:cold: :cold: :froze: :froze: :cold: :cold:
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#2763 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 4:33 pm

DODGE CITY KS afternoon weather discussion


IN A RELATED
NOTE, WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MODELS TOWARDS FEB 1ST. MODELS SHOW 500
HPA RIDING ACROSS ALASKA (CROSS POLAR FLOW INTO CANADA) WITH VERY
COLD AIR AND HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES SINKING SOUTH INTO THE UNITED
STATES. THINK THAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES, (WHICH SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH DUE TO THE PESKY
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHTS OVER GREENLAND THAT WE HAVE SEEN
ALL WINTER ALONG REESTABLISHING ITSELF) THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER COLD (BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES) SNAP. THE LATEST WEEK TWO
GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, COLD AIR ALREADY
EXISTS NOW ACROSS ALASKA AND CANADA, WHICH GIVES A BIT MORE CAUSE OF
CONCERN. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY VERY WELL SET UP SHOP ACROSS KANSAS
WITH THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SLOSHING ABOUT ON A DIURNAL BASIS SO
TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY AND OF LOW CONFIDENCE. -SUGDEN
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2764 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Jan 21, 2011 4:54 pm

No one should be hung up on details this far out. Just yesterday morning, the GFS showed the potential for snow/ice north of here with a very cold heavy rain for my area next Tuesday into Wednesday. Today = nothing. The one thing I take away from all this right now is get the coats out and be ready for below normal temperatures for the next two weeks. Being a warm natured (and winter loving) person, bring it on! :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2765 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Fri Jan 21, 2011 4:55 pm

If everything pans out, it looks like the Farmers Almanac might hit the mark after all.

Image
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#2766 Postby northtxboy » Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:01 pm

Lets just say the the models we are looking at today for feb 1/2/3 was today how much snow would we be looking at? I hope this makes since :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2767 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:11 pm

Just like that 18z GFS takes away the crazy rapid bombogenesis in the southeast/east coast until further north early next week. Just reiterating the volatility in the models even in the short range. Even king Euro is suspect.
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#2768 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:13 pm

The 18z did the same thing yesterday only to have it back by 0z. The 18z is typically the wackiest model run, yes?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2769 Postby iorange55 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:14 pm

Ntxw wrote:Just like that 18z GFS takes away the crazy rapid bombogenesis in the southeast/east coast until further north early next week. Just reiterating the volatility in the models even in the short range. Even king Euro is suspect.


Yeah I'm not getting excited about anything yet especially something 12 days away. Now if it shows it under 7 days out then I will get excited about some cold and snow, but still I'd be prepared for a heartbreak. Short range or long range the models are having trouble.
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Re:

#2770 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:15 pm

BigB0882 wrote:The 18z did the same thing yesterday only to have it back by 0z. The 18z is typically the wackiest model run, yes?


Whacky or not, the point here is don't take fully at any run, whether it shows snow or no snow. Every run so far has been different. All day yesterday (12z and 0z included) were trending dry and misses, today all fun. Tomorrow it may revert back to misses and nothing. The models are clearly having issues with the Pacific.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2771 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:Just like that 18z GFS takes away the crazy rapid bombogenesis in the southeast/east coast until further north early next week. Just reiterating the volatility in the models even in the short range. Even king Euro is suspect.


Ntxw - Did you notice how much different the shortwave energy on the GFS 500mb chart looks compared to the NAM's ? They look to be around 400-500 miles apart around the 60-84 hour time frame. I'm sure if I've ever seen that kind of disparity within this time frame. Muy Loco!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2772 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:21 pm

orangeblood wrote:Ntxw - Did you notice how much different the shortwave energy on the GFS 500mb chart looks compared to the NAM's ? They look to be around 400-500 miles apart around the 60-84 hour time frame. I'm sure if I've ever seen that kind of disparity within this time frame. Muy Loco!!


Yup, I don't know what to believe anymore lol. I'm still hoping Sunday will be interesting. Keeping an eye on the satellite images from the Pac NW this weekend. I do like the NAM's look better :cheesy:

If this doesn't say clueless I don't know what does.
NAM
Image
GFS
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2773 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Ntxw - Did you notice how much different the shortwave energy on the GFS 500mb chart looks compared to the NAM's ? They look to be around 400-500 miles apart around the 60-84 hour time frame. I'm sure if I've ever seen that kind of disparity within this time frame. Muy Loco!!


Yup, I don't know what to believe anymore lol. I'm still hoping Sunday will be interesting. Keeping an eye on the satellite images from the Pac NW this weekend. I do like the NAM's look better :cheesy:

If this doesn't say clueless I don't know what does.
NAM
http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/1327/nam.gif
GFS
http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/7199/gfs.gif


After looking at the NAM, European, and Canadian, the GFS is definitely the outlier for early next week. I really think its Monday night into Tuesday that is the most interesting. That energy appears like it might have a chance to cut off and move right across the northern part of the state.
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#2774 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:32 pm

We'll need to keep an eye on the northern stream energy. If we can get that piece to die out and not be so much of a factor until the east coast, I think we stand a chance. H5 maps look good, with that kind of ridging I don't like the GFS' progressive nature (it does have that tendency). I think it will dig a little more than that.

BTW for all those wanting to get excited (optimism here). Take a look at this blizzard on the GFS. :eek:

Image
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Re: Re:

#2775 Postby MSUDawg » Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:54 pm

jasons wrote:
WacoWx wrote:alright, we're back on track!!! Did the '93 superstorm setup have any effect on Texas, besides being a staging ground for mother load of all winter storms?


Not really...

I was in Birmingham, AL at the time so I was in the thick of it. IIRC, back home in Texas, the Dallas area got a light dusting of snow and some cold out of it, but nothing at all like it was for the SE & Eastern Seaboard. The storm didn't really wrap-up until a low formed in the Gulf. I remember James Spann (one of the great ones) telling us all to be on the alert for "explosive cyclogenesis" in the Gulf and boy did it ever happen.

A week later I drove home to Texas on I-20 and past about Meridian, MS, all signs of damage (downed trees, etc.) started to completely disappear.


I lived for 10 years on both sides of the MS/AL border including tuscaloosa and starkville so I ALWAYS kept up with James Spann. He truly is the best weather person I have ever watched or had the pleasure to meet. I still visit his weather blog http://www.alabamawx.com/ to learn and keep an eye on what is going on back east..and also his thoughts on what is coming to that area as it usually comes through Dallas first.

You mention him and the 93 superstorm. I was living in Gulfport,MS at that time and am pretty sure that caused the only SNOW on the beach I have ever seen.

If you are interested to seeing James Spann's coverage of the 93 superstorm..it's on youtube here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNktKPPSUEs Part 1 of 5..all are on youtube and very interesting to look back on.
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Re:

#2776 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:54 pm

Ntxw wrote:We'll need to keep an eye on the northern stream energy. If we can get that piece to die out and not be so much of a factor until the east coast, I think we stand a chance. H5 maps look good, with that kind of ridging I don't like the GFS' progressive nature (it does have that tendency). I think it will dig a little more than that.

BTW for all those wanting to get excited (optimism here). Take a look at this blizzard on the GFS. :eek:
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/1654/gfspcp240m.gif

:lol: :froze:
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Re:

#2777 Postby downsouthman1 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:58 pm

Ntxw wrote:We'll need to keep an eye on the northern stream energy. If we can get that piece to die out and not be so much of a factor until the east coast, I think we stand a chance. H5 maps look good, with that kind of ridging I don't like the GFS' progressive nature (it does have that tendency). I think it will dig a little more than that.

BTW for all those wanting to get excited (optimism here). Take a look at this blizzard on the GFS. :eek:

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/1654/gfspcp240m.gif


I can't find this map this far out. Do you know where to access it?
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Re: Re:

#2778 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 7:09 pm

downsouthman1 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:We'll need to keep an eye on the northern stream energy. If we can get that piece to die out and not be so much of a factor until the east coast, I think we stand a chance. H5 maps look good, with that kind of ridging I don't like the GFS' progressive nature (it does have that tendency). I think it will dig a little more than that.

BTW for all those wanting to get excited (optimism here). Take a look at this blizzard on the GFS. :eek:

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/1654/gfspcp240m.gif


I can't find this map this far out. Do you know where to access it?


Look here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... amer.shtml

Choose the model run time (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, or 18Z). Choose the panel size (course, medium or fine) according to your monitor size (medium works well for a 19-24" monitor). Then choose from either the "10m-Wnd 06hr Pcpn" column or click the link at the top to go to the upper-air GFS graphics and choose from the "MSLP 1000 - 500mb" column.

I also like to look at the twister site for GFS snow accumulation maps. Go here:
http://www.twisterdata.com/

Click the "GFS" tab up top and open the "Winter" section in the left navigation frame. Choose "snow depth" from the list of winter panels then navigate to the hour you want to look at. In addition, this map is clickable to produce an atmospheric sounding for wherever you click on the map.
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#2779 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 21, 2011 8:50 pm

Pay attention to Mr. McCauley tonight at 10 on channel 8 here in DFW. He dropped some hints on his 6 o'clock segment on what could happen early Feb going towards the Super Bowl. Winter magic?
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Re:

#2780 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 21, 2011 8:53 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Pay attention to Mr. McCauley tonight at 10 on channel 8 here in DFW. He dropped some hints on his 6 o'clock segment on what could happen early Feb going towards the Super Bowl. Winter magic?


I don't think he will say anything you don't already know from here :wink:. Probably something like -a ridge up into Alaska the next few weeks opening doors down to the U.S. Then something like shots of cold air but depending on trajectory we either get really cold or glancing shots. Plenty of storms lined up if one connects with the cold it gets interesting. Otherwise take the blend for the superbowl could be good or bad, wink and stay tuned-
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