Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[hriverajr]

For the warm mongerer


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5STksxSGHQ

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS for my area...

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS DISTURBANCE OVER SRN CA PUSHING THIS WAY...WITH ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS TX INTO THE MS VALLEY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE IN LESS THAN 24 HRS...AS THE UPPER TROF NOTED IN WV WILL PUSH INTO W TX BY LATE TONIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SRN PLAINS...
BRINGING SLY FLOW BACK AT THE LAST MINUTE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND NWD. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP MODE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WET BULBING. AT ANY RATE...NOT EXPECTING SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO REACH OR EXCEED WSW CRITERION ...BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CLOSE. HAVE KEPT THEM BELOW THE
1/4 INCH THRESHOLD...IN LINE WITH HPC...BUT SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY. FOR NOW...HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND THROUGH THE COLUMN BY MID DAY ON MON...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER.

[Portastorm]

For the warm mongerer


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5STksxSGHQ

Sleet in Del Rio! Sleet in Del Rio! WHOO-HOO ...

Mother Nature says "I've got your warm air aloft right here."

Oh ... and by the way ... air temps are currently 3-4 degrees cooler in Austin than progged last night. Upper 20s at the moment.

[Ntxw]

Exciting stuff! We're basically in now cast mode so modelling is really moot but NAM this morning is better reflective of how things are playing out. I see that FW chose to keep the advisories fairly far out to the west and not even include areas in the northeast like Paris or Sulphur springs. We'll see how that turns out. 0z euro once again is unchanged. I think areas along I-20 (DFW included) could pick up 1-3 inches locally 3-4 depending on banding. It's around 30 now with dewpoints in the teens. Evap cooling ftw!

[hriverajr]

We are officially down to 32 now. One item of note. The trof exiting California is moving faster than progged I believe. Precipitation amounts may be higher than forecast. The question is when will the warm advection kick in, and make it just a cold rain? Wish it was snow here.. but some form of winter weather is better than no winter weather.

[Portastorm]

We are officially down to 32 now. One item of note. The trof exiting California is moving faster than progged I believe. Precipitation amounts may be higher than forecast. The question is when will the warm advection kick in, and make it just a cold rain? Wish it was snow here.. but some form of winter weather is better than no winter weather.

Good stuff! And technically, doesn't that make two different sleet "episodes" in Del Rio in the last few weeks?

Thanks for the great video, too! I wonder where the King of Warm mongerers is this morning?

[iorange55]

I'm feeling a surprise tonight. It's got that feeling to it, doesn't it?

[Ntxw]

Convection north of Del Rio looks cool . And here the GFS was saying sprinkles Someone there must be getting quite a dosing of sleet.



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[Tireman4]

I'm feeling a surprise tonight. It's got that feeling to it, doesn't it?

You feel the need for...the need for snow!!!

[Portastorm]

As Ntxw said earlier, we are now in the short-term or "nowcast" mode for this event. Things are clearly not what the models showed yesterday.

Of note, NWSFO Austin/San Antonio (i.e. NWSFO EWX) just bumped up the Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for the Del Rio area and the western Hill Country.

[hriverajr]

I think there has been an upgrade to winter storm warnings.

You just beat me to it...

[hriverajr]

We are officially down to 32 now. One item of note. The trof exiting California is moving faster than progged I believe. Precipitation amounts may be higher than forecast. The question is when will the warm advection kick in, and make it just a cold rain? Wish it was snow here.. but some form of winter weather is better than no winter weather.

Good stuff! And technically, doesn't that make two different sleet "episodes" in Del Rio in the last few weeks?

Thanks for the great video, too! I wonder where the King of Warm mongerers is this morning?

Portions of the ground are white from sleet.

[Portastorm]

Given that radar presentation, I certainly would believe it. I'm seeing reports of moderate snow in Real County (Camp Wood) with the snow sticking to surfaces.

[Ntxw]

TXZ171-183>189-121830-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120213T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0001.120212T1432Z-120213T0000Z/
LLANO-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...DEL RIO...ROCKSPRINGS...
LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE
832 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.

* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS
WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL PROBLEMS AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO
LIFE AND PROPERTY.

[hriverajr]

Well here is a better view of sleet effects in the day light.. just for Wxman

http://youtu.be/qXMK6cxMH84

[Portastorm]

Well here is a better view of sleet effects in the day light.. just for Wxman

http://youtu.be/qXMK6cxMH84

Good thing I told Mrs. Portastorm that staying in Del Rio until this morning and then driving back to the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Austin was a bad idea!

Looks wintry out there, hriverajr!

[Ntxw]

Looks like things are changing to moderate snow (based on radar) south of Junction and Kerrville. Those towns better keep an eye out. Evaporative cooling at it's best.

Great vids hriverajr! Keep em coming

[Portastorm]

Yep, spotter reports of moderate snow in Leakey and Rocksprings coming in.

Meanwhile temps have creeped into the low 30s here in Austin, dang it! Maybe when the precip falls we'll get a little evap cooling going on.

[gpsnowman]

The Texas radar sure looks pretty. San Antonio looks to be in the crosshairs. Watch out!
That darn sun needs to go away here in Grand Prairie!

[iorange55]

Going to be a long fun day ahead! I love it when the models are wrong.