Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

I personally think we are gonna get cold next week in DFW, not mega frigid, just under seasonal averages. I would hope by this time next week, we will know if the SSW actually made a significant difference.

I think its an outside shot at wintry precip next week.

It takes 7-14 days for sensible cold weather to happen after the complete split of the vortex. Then probably another week for it to advance, the central time of the split was a few days ago so if there are effects of the SSW it would come second half of the month. Current cold snap is the result of NE Pacific ridging and -AO

NE Pacific ridge rarely fails to threaten Texas with wintry precip

Edit: GFS seems to be coming back around too like the Euro did on big high coming down

[BigB0882]

So the cool down next week may not have anything to do with any SSW at all? That would still be a couple more weeks, at least? I am curious to see if anything comes of that.

[Ntxw]

So the cool down next week may not have anything to do with any SSW at all? That would still be a couple more weeks, at least? I am curious to see if anything comes of that.

It is not. There is no big high associated with it and is a result of cold Canadian air. I said a few days ago the models did not yet show a true arctic attack and that the medium range was just trending colder.

[Rgv20]

11-15 days 850mb Temperature Anomalies Lala Land but fun to look at nonetheless..

[Ntxw]

11-15 days 850mb Temperature Anomalies Lala Land but fun to look at nonetheless..

This is fun too

[orangeblood]

although its still in the 240 hr range, at least that 1060 has finally crossed the US border instead of the Arctic circle. Making progress one teleconnection at a time!!!

[BigB0882]

1060 High...come on down!! You're the next contestant on Make My Winter!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

To help the snow deprived fellows identify the foul white stuff here you go..........






is what is helping to send the cold YOUR way!

We are going to drown come spring......please send your Arks this-a-way (when you are finished with them)

[Ntxw]

We are going to drown come spring......please send your Arks this-a-way (when you are finished with them)

Is this one of the deepest snow-pack years you've had in recent memory? It looks like it on satellite

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

We are going to drown come spring......please send your Arks this-a-way (when you are finished with them)

Is this one of the deepest snow-pack years you've had in recent memory? It looks like it on satellite

This is a record snow pack.....not since records were started in the 1890's have we had this much snow in my city (for this time of year). Areas in the country have
a WHOLE LOT more. We are nearing 90cm of it so far (we also have had 2 or 3 melts that have compacted it).

Looking at the snowblower pic that is in a parking lot that is cleared often and the street was cleared just before this most recent snowfall.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

also keep in mind my city is often protected from the elements.....we are normally as bereft of moisture as one of Texas' driest cities (Amarillo, Texas I think receives the same amount of moisture as us).

Areas around the city of Moose Jaw are deeply buried.

[Jagno]

SaskatchewanScreamer, with the high today in the low to mid 70's I don't think we'll be seeing any of your white fluffy stuff anytime soon. LOL Thanks for the pics though.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

What is blocking the cold from getting down there.....I thought I read a cold front was due to hit Houston today or tomorrow?

This shows Moose Jaw with the heaviest band to our South and East. This city doesn't get the snow the countryside does....our farm is under the main dump and the winter wheat we planted to soak up some excess moisture I'm sure will drown (we only planted the few acres that have been too wet to plant every spring for the last 5 years). It was just below our farm that NASA had shown two years ago record breaking snow cover there (that is what helped flood Eastern Saskatchewan, Minot, North Dakota and Manitoba.
This year there is a much wider coverage of deep snow (for this time of year) across the province and if this keeps up we will be in a lot of trouble come spring.

).
Here is downtown Regina this morning (they got a lot more than we did but not as much as the countryside between us). The parts of Moose Jaw at the top of the Valley probably look similar (we didn't drive out of the valley).




Regina woke up to a blanket of fresh snow on Friday morning. Sheryl Rennie/CBC


The Trans-Canada Highway was closed all around Moose Jaw this morning, in the wake of Thursday's heavy snowfall and winds.

Starting at around 3 a.m. CST, the highways ministry closed the Trans-Canada, also known as Highway 1, all the way from Belle Plaine in the east to Mortlach in the west.

Highway 2 from Moose Jaw north to Tuxford is closed as well, as is a section of highway 363 southeast of Swift Current.

Travel is not recommended from the Alberta border to east of Regina.

In Regina, the public school board said the buses had been cancelled, but the schools were still open.

Further north, the storm didn't hit as hard. In Saskatoon, there were normal winter driving conditions reported by highway officials in the morning.

Snow continued to fall in sections of southern Saskatchewan Friday morning, but there should be a gradual improvement by the afternoon, CBC Saskatchewan weather consultant Wayne Miskolczi said.

"It's going to be a big cleanup day to be sure," he said.

[utweather]

Yeap, I agree, the ECMWF has been kicking butt at the medium range forecast, it has been handling the negatively tilted trough pattern in the SW US better, as well with the strong mid level ridge in the SW Atlantic/SE US.

The ECMWF has really been "on" more than the GFS in the last few weeks.

It's got to stink for the NWS, they can't (at least publicly) discount the NOAA "flagship" GFS, which has really struggled at times in the last month.


NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth

Next week will not be an easy forecast. Check out 2 models that we use - Completely different solutions #txwx #dfwwx http://ow.ly/i/1m7se

Wow! I did not know that. Thats kinda lame that they have to stick to something that is statistically 2nd best for whatever reasons and not go out on a limb and forecast something differently if it increases the odds of being correct even if still not 100% accurate but just closer at least.
Another quote from them last night..

THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL HAVE QUITE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS TO WHAT
WILL HAPPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS
OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA AND THEN PUSHES IT EAST ACROSS
TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IF THIS SOLUTION WERE TO
VERIFY IT WOULD MEAN A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS AND MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS KEEP THE REGION DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS PERIOD OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF AND
SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS BUT LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SYSTEM.

I haven't posted in a while, but each winter the models(I think its always the GFS) depicts the craziest cold weather to come pouring down in the extended. The time gets extended and cold less severe until its spring time.
For snow fans down south definitely need some global cooling or headlines making the news 'coldest average or top 10 global low temperatures recorded on record this year' instead of the opposite that has been occurring lately.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Beautiful!

[Ntxw]

If it makes the NWS feel any better about forecasting, the 12z GFS no longer is an open elongated wave. Cutoff low swinging through I-20. Not as wet and cold as Euro but certainly looks more like it.

[RedRiverRefuge]

Hi all, first time poster here. Been lurking for a while tho Found a NOAA site im sure most already have links to but I have never seen it posted on storm2K. HPC Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Guidance. Shows some possible light ice sun - mon. Was going to post the actual graphic but wasnt sure if permitted, if from NOAA

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities

[Ntxw]

Welcome RedRiverRefuge. That's a very neat link I didn't know NOAA had that. Anything they have you can post the images, all stuff by NOAA is free to the public

[orangeblood]

Euro text output for DFW next week calls for 0.01 of an inch of precip with temps below freezing on Sunday night but unfortunately has surface temps above 40 deg F when the system swings through on Thursday with very little precip (850 temps plenty cold but surface temps way too warm)

[Ntxw]

Henry Margusity posted this on his morning comments on the 0z euro last night. Lets see what the 12z says