Texas Winter 2013-2014

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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2761 Postby Portastorm » Fri Dec 27, 2013 12:02 pm

dhweather wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Then, of course, there is this piece of model stuff from the 6z GFS at 384 hours! This one is for you, hriverajr! Snow in Del Rio and lots of snow for the PWC!


It's hard to discount the 384hr panel of the GFS...



I know, it's like a prophecy. The Nostradamus of weather forecasting!

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!


Thus the phrase "model stuff" -- which means a weather computer model that looks appealing but is not the real thing and does not deliver the real thing.

:roll:
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#2762 Postby dhweather » Fri Dec 27, 2013 12:25 pm

I know.


Sadly, I just looked over the 12Z GFS and Euro, it's flat out depressing for the next 7-10 days. Nothing major happening, heck, nothing minor happening in North Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2763 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Fri Dec 27, 2013 12:36 pm

I'm still holding hope out for Sunday evening. It looks like parts of north Texas, especially northeast Texas, may see a little bit of wintry precipitation. The models have hinted at this.
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Re:

#2764 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Dec 27, 2013 1:45 pm

dhweather wrote:I know.


Sadly, I just looked over the 12Z GFS and Euro, it's flat out depressing for the next 7-10 days. Nothing major happening, heck, nothing minor happening in North Texas.

ALL OF TEXAS!! :roll: :cry:
BUT, as we all know models CAN AND WILL CHANGE!!
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Re: Re:

#2765 Postby Portastorm » Fri Dec 27, 2013 2:12 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
dhweather wrote:I know.


Sadly, I just looked over the 12Z GFS and Euro, it's flat out depressing for the next 7-10 days. Nothing major happening, heck, nothing minor happening in North Texas.

ALL OF TEXAS!! :roll: :cry:
BUT, as we all know models CAN AND WILL CHANGE!!


Right now I wouldn't trust one model solution beyond 72 hours. As I wrote about this morning, there are widely divergent scenarios the models are painting and things are way too volatile to be getting worked up over on any solution past three days. You'll be a glutton for emotional punishment if you do.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2766 Postby TideJoe » Fri Dec 27, 2013 5:52 pm

Portastorm wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:
dhweather wrote:I know.


Sadly, I just looked over the 12Z GFS and Euro, it's flat out depressing for the next 7-10 days. Nothing major happening, heck, nothing minor happening in North Texas.

ALL OF TEXAS!! :roll: :cry:
BUT, as we all know models CAN AND WILL CHANGE!!


Right now I wouldn't trust one model solution beyond 72 hours. As I wrote about this morning, there are widely divergent scenarios the models are painting and things are way too volatile to be getting worked up over on any solution past three days. You'll be a glutton for emotional punishment if you do.


Agree. Especially if you live in the deep south and are hoping for some snow. I've lived in Hattiesburg, MS for 12 years and have seen the global models show deep south snow 10 times more often than it has actually happened. Almost every time we've gotten measurable snow, it wasn't in the forecast until about 48 hours out at the earliest. I can remember 2 times we got better than 2" and didn't have it in the forecast until 12 hours before it happened. On top of that, the snowfall forecasts themselves have been highly erroneous. If we've gotten a forecast for 2+ inches we usually get a dusting and vice versa. I guess it's just really difficult to forecast and the models usually never have enough data to reliable more than 2-3 days out.
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#2767 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Dec 27, 2013 6:27 pm

Slow at work so I decided to log on. Just took a peek at the CBS 11 7-day and we are in for a couple of cold days starting Sunday. We all want cold but what is cool about this month is there has been no real warm up at all. No torch. Today was upper 50's and tomorrow around 60. Could be alot worse. And the next seven days reflect that. I guess we are in a holding pattern until the big one comes in January!! Holding out hope. :cold:
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#2768 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 27, 2013 9:19 pm

DFW airport snuck in another sneaky freeze last night. I'll have to check numbers, but I think we are about to at least tie the most freezes by Jan 1st, at 20 and I do believe the most by then is 22 held by 1989. Sunday and Monday should at least tie it since we are forecasted to go well into the 20s.

Edit: 2000 also had 22 by Jan 1st

Edit 2: Correction it is 23 not 22, miscounted, held by both listed years. Will be close!
Last edited by Ntxw on Sat Dec 28, 2013 9:58 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2769 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 27, 2013 9:46 pm

As predicted the AO is about to go negative. Post Solstice there is much support in the idea that chances for wintry precipitation (particularly snow) increases when the AO is negative. It's not a guaranty but it's better than using most of the other indices for us. The science behind it as to why makes sense, lower heights = deeper cold core lows that get trapped due to blocking in Canada and the NP. Most of our big snowstorms in the southern plains the past 5 or 6 years have mostly been during -AO's. The EPO will crash again, most guidance agree and that Gulf of Alaska water agrees. What doesn't agree is (as Portastorm have said) are the models which essentially run to run have shown variable solutions.

Image

PNA will not go as positive as planned, thus ridging may return albeit not as strong in the SE and EC while the trough will likely be anchored in the Plains and inter-mountain west. -AO should keep any SE ridge at bay though.

Image

All in all the Pacific is still very much in control. It has been relaxing the past week or so and for the most part we have seen tranquil weather. The indices in the EP/NP/WPO are on the move again so expect changes to come. We can use the AO/NAO/PNA or whatnot but in the end this is the year the big Ocean reigns supreme.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2770 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:03 am

European run doesn't indicate much for TX the next 10 days. Slow warming trend the first week of January - up to near 70 degrees in Dallas by the 6th.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2771 Postby Portastorm » Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:07 am

I posted this over on KHOU's community weather forum and thought I would share here as well ... folks, we have been well below normal temperature-wise since mid November. Yes, there has only been one real winter weather event in that time frame, DFW area's Icemageddon. But in terms of temperature averages, it's been quite cold!

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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2772 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:22 am

You don't have to tell me that it's been quite cold for the past 4-6 weeks, Portastorm. I got a new electric throw for Christmas that's always on the couch with me. I'm hoping the clouds clear out by noon so we can bike down to the downtown park where there's an outdoor ice rink.
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#2773 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:32 am

Ah yes wxman57, 70s! But what you forgot to mention was the reservoir of cold in western and central Canada the model has. You know as well as I the way teleconnections are and how things have been this year, everytime there is 70s a hefty price looms :wink: for thou! There is little zonal flow this season, it cannot last but tis result of change.
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#2774 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:36 am

Yes, the temps have been great. Could do without the 70's though. Ntwx is correct. When we warm that much in winter, we pay for it! Just one big snowfall is all I ask.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2775 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:41 am

I'd say these are the worst possible temps. Not cold enough for snow and too cold to go outside and be comfortable (on a 5-hr bike ride). I'd take 100 degrees over these temps any day. At least I can bike and be quite comfortable in the heat. Can't say the same for the cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2776 Postby Portastorm » Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:45 am

:uarrow:

Poor wxman57. Even Heat Miser needs a little love (and warmth) now and then! :wink:

Weather-wise, today is not much different than yesterday in terms of computer model volatility. The various individual members in the GFS ensembles are all over the place. The Euro op and ensembles seem to be wavering back and forth. Today (0z run), for example, late in both the Euro operational (deterministic) and ensemble runs you can clearly see an Arctic outbreak driving straight down the center of the US and into the Southern Plains/Texas. Yesterday's 12z really didn't show that idea.

As srainhoutx has mentioned we have a muddled picture at best ahead of us. Until things clear, I would be leary of any model solution beyond 3-4 days time.

To illustrate my point, in a small way, go to the link below and click back and forth on the 0z and 12z 8-10 day model runs for the GFS and Euro. See for yourself how different they are from each other, let alone how different they are within a 12-hour time frame!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
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#2777 Postby dhweather » Sat Dec 28, 2013 2:45 pm

Looking at the 12Z GFS and Euro, man, depressing. This weekend's cold shot is the highlight of the next week in these two. I just want precip at this point, any kind, and lots of it. We really need to get water back into the lakes, they are still way low.

Ray Hubbard is down 6.7 feet
Lavon is down 12.2 feet
Lewisville is down 7.1 feet
Grapevine is down 8.97 feet
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#2778 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Dec 28, 2013 2:48 pm

The GFS is starting to show precipitation for North Texas for late Sunday into Monday. It showed snow for the western part on North Texas.
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#2779 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 28, 2013 2:52 pm

New major -EPO block not unlike the one that traversed Alaska early December is coming. You can argue warmth or cold but one will not deny the North Pacific.
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Re:

#2780 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:04 pm

Ntxw wrote:New major -EPO block not unlike the one that traversed Alaska early December is coming. You can argue warmth or cold but one will not deny the North Pacific.


One could argue that a pattern not all too different from what we witnessed 40 years ago on January 11, 1973 could be possible, if the 12Z Euro is even close to being correct in the extended range. We will see... :wink:
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