As predicted the AO is about to go negative. Post Solstice there is much support in the idea that chances for wintry precipitation (particularly snow) increases when the AO is negative. It's not a guaranty but it's better than using most of the other indices for us. The science behind it as to why makes sense, lower heights = deeper cold core lows that get trapped due to blocking in Canada and the NP. Most of our big snowstorms in the southern plains the past 5 or 6 years have mostly been during -AO's. The EPO will crash again, most guidance agree and that Gulf of Alaska water agrees. What doesn't agree is (as
Portastorm have said) are the models which essentially run to run have shown variable solutions.

PNA will not go as positive as planned, thus ridging may return albeit not as strong in the SE and EC while the trough will likely be anchored in the Plains and inter-mountain west. -AO should keep any SE ridge at bay though.

All in all the Pacific is still very much in control. It has been relaxing the past week or so and for the most part we have seen tranquil weather. The indices in the EP/NP/WPO are on the move again so expect changes to come. We can use the AO/NAO/PNA or whatnot but in the end this is the year the big Ocean reigns supreme.