Texas Winter 2016-2017

[TheProfessor]

CMC drops the hammer behind the snow and has 8 degrees at DFW Saturday morning. The snow on the CMC falls Friday morning mostly whereas the GFS is Friday Night

Good! Then I'll be prepared for the cold when I get back to Ohio!

[Ntxw]

CMC drops the hammer behind the snow and has 8 degrees at DFW Saturday morning. The snow on the CMC falls Friday morning mostly whereas the GFS is Friday Night

That's kind of crazy. Though CMC is always the coldest of the bunch when it comes to cold blasts. I would've expected really cold with the big -EPO that's already pushing -2SD so...GFS is more modestly cold. Both models have pressures during the coldest period near 1040 in and around Texas

[bubba hotep]

The GFS has certainly trended towards the Euro since 12z but it hasn't totally folded. Maybe this will be one of those times were a blend of the GFS/Euro in the med-range ends up being the best option? It wouldn't take much for the 00z GFS to produce a result like the 12z Euro but the same goes for the 12z Euro, small shifts are all we need or all we should fear

[BigB0882]

I do wish this could push further south, although I am sure SELA would only see freezing rain and/or sleet out of it rather than snow.

[Ntxw]

I do wish this could push further south, although I am sure SELA would only see freezing rain and/or sleet out of it rather than snow.

It might be worth a snow chase if it does happen in N LA or C Miss

[Brent]

in depressing news did anyone see the official stats for 2016?

at DFW

3rd warmest for average temperature
8th warmest for average high
Warmest ever for average low!!!

[bubba hotep]

So what will the 00z Euro show?

[Ntxw]

So what will the 00z Euro show?

I say it flips to what the GFS was showing, amped. Just to mess with us

[bubba hotep]

So what will the 00z Euro show?

I say it flips to what the GFS was showing, amped. Just to mess with us

Some interesting changes through 30 hrs but I learned long ago to not try and guess what will happen later on in a model run based on how it starts.

[Brent]

So what will the 00z Euro show?

I say it flips to what the GFS was showing, amped. Just to mess with us

I was thinking the same thing...the CMC, UKMET, GFS para stayed with a big snowstorm back east so now the Euro should flip just because

[bubba hotep]

Through 42 hrs, not as much interaction b/w the Pacific NW s/w and the Polar s/w. Also, the Pacific NW s/w is looking more robust.

[Brent]

Euro stays below freezing Friday, now where's the precip lol

Austin gets a little with temps right at freezing but DFW just dry and cold

[Ntxw]

Funny business in KAUS again on the Euro

[TheAustinMan]

Funny business in KAUS again on the Euro

Could you, uh, clue us in a bit as to what that might mean? I see hints of some precipitation falling at near-freezing but I haven't seen a whole lot suggesting freezing precip.

[Ntxw]

Mostly dry at DFW, might be good for far east Texas and Shreveport through the southeast on the Euro

[Ntxw]

Funny business in KAUS again on the Euro

Could you, uh, clue us in a bit as to what that might mean? I see hints of some precipitation falling at near-freezing but I haven't seen a whole lot suggesting freezing precip.

It's very light stuff, could be flurries or could be freezing drizzle

[bubba hotep]

That was certainly a step towards the GFS at 500mb, the models seem to be converging on a solution. Only problem, it looks like a razors edge as far as snow in Texas.

[Ntxw]

That was certainly a step towards the GFS at 500mb, the models seem to be converging on a solution. Only problem, it looks like a razors edge as far as snow in Texas.

The suspense, the models keep teasing us like carrots on a stick to a horse. You want to step away for a day or two and not look..but you just gotta peep

[Lagreeneyes03]

There's still plenty of time for the models to change to more favorable conditions for snow across Texas. Keeping faith here.

Steve McCauley's Stat Method has insisted for the past few days on some form of winter precipitation for Friday, he's at about an 85% accuracy rate so I'm thinking we may get our wish!

[wxman57]

00Z EC confines the snow to the northern TX Panhandle Fri/Sat. We should start seeing some model agreement pretty soon, as the possible event is only 3-4 days away.