Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

And right on cue, look what just showed up on the NAM....the beginning stages of the potential for a pretty significant winter system crossing the southern plains in less than 3 days

[iorange55]

And right on cue, look what just showed up on the NAM....the beginning stages of the potential for a pretty significant winter system crossing the southern plains in less than 3 days

Just saw that! Haha. I’ll pretend to be shocked. System looks like it’s trying to close off

[Brent]

And right on cue, look what just showed up on the NAM....the beginning stages of the potential for a pretty significant winter system crossing the southern plains in less than 3 days

Well that would be something. I was joking at work today it'd be funny if Fridays winter storm came back

[Ralph's Weather]

The NAM is moving towards what I expected. Storms so far this winter have liked to dig SW and then stay intact across the state. This storm may cross the state south of I20, if so the northern tier of the state will have snow on the ground for Christmas morning.

[Texas Snow]

The NAM is moving towards what I expected. Storms so far this winter have liked to dig SW and then stay intact across the state. This storm may cross the state south of I20, if so the northern tier of the state will have snow on the ground for Christmas morning.

Well despite reading this thread multiple times a day, I gave up on models the last 4-5 days. But now that we are getting a little closer and the NAM is coming on board and pointing to something interesting, it looks like I'm back to model F5 mode. I'm sure the Snow Miser would tell me to wait 2 more days, but I don't think I can.

[bubba hotep]

And right on cue, look what just showed up on the NAM....the beginning stages of the potential for a pretty significant winter system crossing the southern plains in less than 3 days

I'm not sure what Tropical Tidbits is doing but you have to go all the way up into Oklahoma to find any soundings that support snow. The surface is above freezing, so that isn't freezing rain, and I'm not sure the soundings even support sleet.

[Texas Snow]

Yea if you look at the precip types just prior to that run it never shows anything frozen in Texas, although it gets to the mid 30's with rain in the area.

0Z GFS Shows Rain and 51 in Dallas at same time period.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian might show snow in north TX this run. Continues to show a deeper trough.

[orangeblood]

Canadian is on board as well....The cold air at the surface and aloft do appear to be in question but interesting trend none the less!!

[MississippiWx]

0Z Canadian is so much different than the GFS. It shows a surface low riding just north of the Gulf on Christmas Eve. That could be a winter weather scenario for North Texas. Definitely a more suppressed solution that gives a little hope...

[MississippiWx]

The obvious difference is the handling of the 500mb feature/upper level energy. Two Canadian runs in a row have shown a slower, more southerly and closed depiction of the upper low ejecting out of the Southwest. If the Euro comes on board tonight, it’s time to get a little more excited. The recent NAM run is faster with the upper low, but is closed very similar to the CMC.

I have a hunch we are seeing the beginnings of a mid-range trend...

[Brent]

CMC goes well into Saturday with the moisture

Far more likely for a winter storm to verify, the longer the moisture stays the better

[Quixotic]

Suppression.

[South Texas Storms]

The obvious difference is the handling of the 500mb feature/upper level energy. Two Canadian runs in a row have shown a slower, more southerly and closed depiction of the upper low ejecting out of the Southwest. If the Euro comes on board tonight, it’s time to get a little more excited. The recent NAM run is faster with the upper low, but is closed very similar to the CMC.

I have a hunch we are seeing the beginnings of a mid-range trend...

Yeah I agree. Really interested to see what the Euro shows tonight. Canadian seems to be showing what has happened to the past few storm systems here. Deeper and slower trend.

[Brent]

I see the GFS is still on the warmup after Christmas

CMC Is too at first but the cold air starts flooding in for the Post-Christmas storm

[orangeblood]

I see the GFS is still on the warmup after Christmas

Check out what is lurking north of the Border

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian also continues to show the winter storm threat during the last few days of December.

[Brent]

CMC big ice storm December 28th-29th

[Ntxw]

GFS still irks me about what happened today. This model has a progressive issue it's not even funny. Friday's earlier day runs had 0.00 whopping inches of rain. Daily record of nearly 3" today.

I'm not even giving it much weight and looking at it last in the model suites.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS also continues to indicate a winter storm threat across TX the last few days of December. Decent model agreement for long range.