Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman22]

18Z GEFS

[Ntxw]

With the increased confidence in the NWS discussions on possible accumulations, GFS shifts, and ENS will take a guess the various WFOs may issue winter storm watches perhaps Tuesday along the I-20 corridor (W-N-E Texas) and down to Central Texas, maybe northern parts of SE Texas.

[Fifty Rock]

18Z GEFS

https://i.ibb.co/JHGH5Qt/sn10-acc-mean-imp-us-sc-8.png

This one bores me Sir.

[Fifty Rock]

With the increased confidence in the NWS discussions on possible accumulations, GFS shifts, and ENS will take a guess the various WFOs may issue winter storm watches perhaps Tuesday along the I-20 corridor (W-N-E Texas) and down to Central Texas, maybe northern parts of SE Texas.

My wife would ask me to draw a picture or show her on paper. Directionally challenged she is. Wouldn’t know her butt from a hole in the ground when it comes to directions.

[Stratton23]

Interesting to note on the 18z Euro that surface temperatures are actually colder across portions of northern houston, mixes in some sleet and light snow across areas just north of houston- huntsville

[Brandon8181]

Interesting to note on the 18z Euro that surface temperatures are actually colder across portions of northern houston, mixes in some sleet and light snow across areas just north of houston- huntsville

Haven't seen the 18z, but this would be good news meaning that Tyler area weather would likely be a bit cooler and not as "close" @Ralph'sWeather. Maybe the Euro is catching up on being a bit warm.

[txtwister78]

Speaking of the Euro, 18z is really close to be creating a mess of mixed precip and even snow further south into SC TX as upper levels continue to cool each run. Important to note however this is the only model showing this for now outside of the CMC which has the new regional skating rink idea. Precip continues to begin earlier and earlier on some of these runs however in both GFS and Euro solutions so still some things to watch as mentioned above but beginning to see why the local office was zeroed in on this earlier timeframe across the region. Euro seems to be struggling a bit however with precip accumulation and precip types as some of this is shown as all snow in the accumulation output. Something to keep in mind when looking at accumulation snowfall totals as mentioned about the Euro yesterday (mixed precip)

[Brandon8181]

Portion of Shreveport AFD

So the overnight hours will start to see the snow falling in the
Four-State area with light amounts to start. The GFS and ECMWF
both develop a coastal low around 110mb with GFS to 1006mb south
of Baton Rouge on the coast. The ECMWF maintains 1010mb give or
take with a core well offshore. Temps warm enough on Thursday for
some transitioning back and forth. Then overnight, this surface
low will be swinging Gulf moisture northward and this is our big
snow maker once that low pivots east of I-49 in Lafayette and
races over to the FL panhandle by sundown. The WPC Winter WX
graphic on day 5 is quite a spread with 30-50% greater than 1/4"
melted. And depending on the ratio, we will see widespread 1-2
inch and a swath of 2 to 4 with some higher amounts possible. The
next cold front will lag a bit and arrive over next weekend with
some 50s for highs melting away the blanket. The NW winds drive
back some Arctic cold again Sunday afternoon. /24/

[Ralph's Weather]

Interesting to note on the 18z Euro that surface temperatures are actually colder across portions of northern houston, mixes in some sleet and light snow across areas just north of houston- huntsville

Haven't seen the 18z, but this would be good news meaning that Tyler area weather would likely be a bit cooler and not as "close" @Ralph'sWeather. Maybe the Euro is catching up on being a bit warm.

Euro warm tendencies Give me hope. Could this be the another big one like 2010 and 2021 where both gave us around a foot.

[txtwister78]

[Ntxw]

Interesting to note on the 18z Euro that surface temperatures are actually colder across portions of northern houston, mixes in some sleet and light snow across areas just north of houston- huntsville

Haven't seen the 18z, but this would be good news meaning that Tyler area weather would likely be a bit cooler and not as "close" @Ralph'sWeather. Maybe the Euro is catching up on being a bit warm.

Euro warm tendencies Give me hope. Could this be the another big one like 2010 and 2021 where both gave us around a foot.

For your region I would definitely watch above the surface. If 850s and 925s are colder than the model is forecasting, you can snow and drop to 32-33. If it's warmer it will rain/mix at 32-33F.

[Brandon8181]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736100000/1736532000-R99HMJCdxok.png

If this map would verify or close to it I would be much happier than things being so close in the Tyler area.

[Ralph's Weather]

App shows chance of flurries tonight. I checked and this evening there is a small moist layer at 900mb. Doubt anything reaches the ground but there are specks on the radar. Loving model trends but that temp profile is so tight that I won't be confident for a couple days. EPS showing a huge area of 4"+ at this range is reassuring though.

[Ralph's Weather]

Haven't seen the 18z, but this would be good news meaning that Tyler area weather would likely be a bit cooler and not as "close" @Ralph'sWeather. Maybe the Euro is catching up on being a bit warm.

Euro warm tendencies Give me hope. Could this be the another big one like 2010 and 2021 where both gave us around a foot.

For your region I would definitely watch above the surface. If 850s and 925s are colder than the model is forecasting, you can snow and drop to 32-33. If it's warmer it will rain/mix at 32-33F.

Yes as we get closer I will closely monitor 925mb temps. That's a layer I have always paid attention to and will matter a ton in this situation especially.

[wxman22]

18z Euro snowfall totals

[Cpv17]

I’m just hoping the cold later in the month will provide another opportunity for winter weather. I haven’t seen snow since December 2017. I feel like I’m due for it.

[gpsnowman]

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi

[gpsnowman]

32 at DFW airport.

[Stratton23]

Its not every day that you see an ensemble ( 18z GEFS) have that aggressive of a cold air signal look for late january, that run screams severe cold dump, cold next few weeks , but potentially very cold beyond the 19th or so

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at the model soundings for my area the melting layer is at 800-900mb and it is like 33F so I believe models are overdoing the amount of mixing. Also no way for globals to resolve that minor of a warm nose. NAM and other mesoscale models will be very interesting to watch starting Tue to start to get an idea how the details may resolve. These winter storms with convection are always so fun and someone north of I-20 is gonna see over a foot from this.