Texas Winter 2012-2013

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1131 AM CST FRI JAN 11 2013

.UPDATE...
NO FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED HERE AT MIDDAY AS THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ON TRACK.

CURRENTLY...THE FRONTAL TIMING FOR SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT IS GOOD. OUR MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WINTRY MIX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ARE INDICATING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION MAY EXPERIENCE WET-BULB COOLING THAT COULD LEAD TO
SLEET MIXED WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS MORNINGS GFS
KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION PROGRESSIVELY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF
THE CWA BEFORE THIS TRANSITION CAN TAKE PLACE. AS SUCH...WE HAVE
NOT COMMITTED TO A WINTRY MIX AND WILL AWAIT TODAY/S ECMWF BEFORE
MAKING THE FINAL DECISION.

[Texas Snowman]

"@BigJoeBastardi: Canadian brewing up wed-Fri southern plains to NE snowstorm Thur eve map and precip type. Heck of a way to run a thaw."

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has a little snow in NE TX between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. About 1/2" to 3/4" in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. The amounts on the map below are in millimeters of LIQUID, so you have to convert the 1-2mm liquid to snow. Keep in mind that predicting how much precip will fall to the 10th of an inch is not really possible. Could be more, could be less.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro doesn't have anything for Thursday mostly dry as the storm has no moisture

So this is what we have today, GFS went cutoff and wetter while the Euro is still cut off but drier

[Ntxw]

Putting aside the results, if one were to study Stratospheric warming events the current major that is happening up there is quite classic. The PV has been and will continue to be bombarded from both sides of the globe. You can't have another sudden warming since it's already warm but the duration as shown by the OP guidance is extraordinary. Going from one of the coldest stratospheres to complete 180 that fast is amazing. Good case to study, best event anyone could look at thus far for such phenomenon.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/s ... strat_a_f/

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/ ... =1&lng=eng

[gpsnowman]

Holy guacamole, this thread is dead!!!

[amawea]

Holy guacamole, this thread is dead!!!

Yes, it is dead as winter. Seems the winter heat has killed everything. Even the PWC. I guess Weatherman57 infiltrated the whole place and brainwashed even the ones on the GreyGoose.

[GaryHughes]

Are those crickets I hear? Need a few good model runs to get things going again!

[Ntxw]

GFS doesn't have much for next week, dry cold. The longer range hasn't shown much if any consistency to rely on. Some run/models have cold going to the Lakes, some Atlantic, some the plains, then the north pole.

This is extreme cold for the United States but again has not been consistent showing it

[gpsnowman]

What is the latest on the Polar Vortex dropping south? I read that the north and possibly the east and even the southeast may get some serious cold. Hope some of that cold gets down here.

[Ntxw]

What is the latest on the Polar Vortex dropping south? I read that the north and possibly the east and even the southeast may get some serious cold. Hope some of that cold gets down here.

There is no consistency on the models to say. We are still looking at long range of the models so when there is no agreement between models and runs, it will seem like a lot of flip flopping posting each of them. The PV won't leave Hudson bay region overall (as in exit NA) so there will be several opportunities in the pattern to reload and build more highs.

That's why we've had ups and downs day to day. They all have the cold but it's in different spots every run

[Ntxw]

Take today for instance for Thurs. GFS was wet this morning and now dry. Euro was dry this morning and now wet (850s are cold enough for snow but warm surface, maybe some dynamic cooling if it rains hard enough). Last night it was the complete opposite of this morning...

[gpsnowman]

This is like watching paint dry. Excruciating. Do we have a date that this cold will start dropping south into the northern US at least? Something we can at least watch?
At least it will be cold for the next few days. CBS 11 still calling for a chance of ice Sunday/Monday and maybe some winter on Thursday.

[Ntxw]

This is like watching paint dry. Excruciating. Do we have a date that this cold will start dropping south into the northern US at least? Something we can at least watch?

The models will push it back, the stuff they are showing now is probably not the realistic solution. We will see cold fronts for the next week/week and half. Stratwarm takes about two weeks from it's split a few days ago so don't believe anything the models say for arctic blasts until about the 20th to Feb 1st, MJO will move favorably in about a week.

[gpsnowman]

This is like watching paint dry. Excruciating. Do we have a date that this cold will start dropping south into the northern US at least? Something we can at least watch?

The models will push it back, the stuff they are showing now is probably not the realistic solution. We will see cold fronts for the next week/week and half. Stratwarm takes about two weeks from it's split a few days ago so don't believe anything the models say for arctic blasts until about the 20th to Feb 1st, MJO will move favorably in about a week.

Thanks for the info. Patience is key for these scenarios, which I do not have!

[Ntxw]

This is for entertainment only and at least both models are finally showing extreme cold for a single run around the same hours. Caution it will probably change

[knoxtnhorn]

Our local meteorologist here in Knoxville (yes, I know, several hundred miles from Texas) is calling for a low of 11 degrees in 6 days. Not sure what model he is using but I have a little hope.

[RedRiverRefuge]

surely CAVANAUGH developed typer's cramp over at dfw nws this am. WOW did you see his writeup 2day? I do appreciate his , what seems to be consistent, detailed analysis tho when his turn to post. He's not quite ready to jump on the ECMWF band wagon just yet for precip Thurs. Not sure i understand the last sentence of his statement. In models, isn't consistency ie being right, quality? or maybe he is just talking about its runs on this particular system as being consistent.

quoting cavy
AS A RESULT THIS FORECAST FULLY SUPPORTS THE
NAEFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE THAN JUST
ECMWF CONSISTENCY BEFORE JUMPING ON THIS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF MAY
END UP BEING RIGHT...HOWEVER CONSISTENCY IS NO GUARANTEE OF
QUALITY...UNFORTUNATELY

[Portastorm]

surely CAVANAUGH developed typer's cramp over at dfw nws this am. WOW did you see his writeup 2day? I do appreciate his , what seems to be consistent, detailed analysis tho when his turn to post. He's not quite ready to jump on the ECMWF band wagon just yet for precip Thurs. Not sure i understand the last sentence of his statement. In models, isn't consistency ie being right, quality? or maybe he is just talking about its runs on this particular system as being consistent.

quoting cavy
AS A RESULT THIS FORECAST FULLY SUPPORTS THE
NAEFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE THAN JUST
ECMWF CONSISTENCY BEFORE JUMPING ON THIS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF MAY
END UP BEING RIGHT...HOWEVER CONSISTENCY IS NO GUARANTEE OF
QUALITY...UNFORTUNATELY

You mean the "War and Peace" forecast discussion out of NWSFO Fort Worth this morning?!

All kidding aside, I thought it was a great discussion. Love Cavanaugh's work. He's outstanding.

[Portastorm]

Taking my moderator hat off and putting on my winter weather fandom hat ... and sharing some Saturday morning thoughts out of the Portastorm Weather Center:

1) The extensive dialogue over the last two weeks in this forum regarding Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) has been educational, entertaining, and, at times, frustrating. Let's be honest with each other ... we're all amateurs and while some of us are more advanced than others, talking about SSW is like talking about nuclear physics. It's a VERY complicated topic which even degreed pro mets on other forums acknowledge a tall learning curve. We know a little bit about this subject, at best.

2) With that in mind, any calls here for a certain weather pattern to develop based on yours or my understanding of SSW are flawed at best. Unfortunately expectations get raised when we make those posts and then people get disappointed when it doesn't happen.

3) Yes, this is a forum for us to bandy about our various ideas, share humor, and otherwise comiserate or celebrate whatever weather the good Lord is allowing to happen. My thoughts here are not meant to discourage that. I would just encourage people to put a filter on your expectations if you're basing them on anything other than comments from a pro met here, the NWS, or a pro met whose word you trust. Sometimes us amateurs know what we're talking about ... more times, we know a little. If you allow your winter weather hopes to soar and plummet based on the daily dialogue here, it'll kill ya! Trust me, I know. I've died a thousand deaths over the years.

4) Yes, I still believe some major-league cold is coming down the pike. The polar vortex, or a piece of it, is progged by the GFS and the Euro to come down into Canada and maybe even the Great Lakes around Jan 20-22. If that happens, it's gonna get VERY COLD here. No doubt about it. I think the late January period into February is going to provide some real excitement for many of us. And as many here have already posted, February has provided some of our best winter weather events over the years.

5) This coming week’s storm system(s) look less impressive than a few days ago. There may be a smattering of wintry precip in the mornings in some select areas but probably nothing widespread.

6) And finally … personally, one of the great things about Storm2K is the ability for rank amateurs such as myself to talk weather with more educated amateurs and even professional meteorologists. We do so in an environment which is devoid of criticism. Hopefully that encourages lurkers and first timers to post questions and comments. Don’t stop, gang! Jump in.