Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Quixotic]

The bad news in all of this is my in-laws who live in St Louis, can’t get home now and if it doesn’t happen Tuesday or Wednesday, my winter storm buzz will be attenuated by their constant presence.

[Ntxw]

Its not every day that you see an ensemble ( 18z GEFS) have that aggressive of a cold air signal look for late january, that run screams severe cold dump, cold next few weeks , but potentially very cold beyond the 19th or so

Can't emphasize this enough. The ENS are also showing a snow signal in there too. Areas soon to be hit, it shows adding to it, and possibly other regions as well. It's far out but you can't ignore the drums. Deep winter will be late January and this is just the start.

[wxman22]

The 18z Euro now has temps in the upper 20's for most of North & West Texas during the peak of the storm.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like a Dream storm coming for you guys in the DFW area. No more crying about missing the events up there!

Any word on jets sampling the data in the pacific? I think once they gather data from that region, it should help the models even more.

Something to note, JB always says if you have thunderstorms roll through, one week later you can expect snow. Interesting that this wise tale is playing out for many.

Is there any kind of science at all behind this (at all?) Or only a wise tale?

It’s folklore, but there is some legitimacy to it. Usually thunderstorms in Winter is a precursor to a major pattern shakeup.

If i had to guess, large thunderstorms can really energize the jet stream, which could lead to blocking in the atmosphere. Its easier to understand visually, but I think that's the basis behind the dynamics.

[gpsnowman]

The 18z Euro now has temps in the upper 20's for most of North & West Texas during the peak of the storm.

https://i.ibb.co/J5f2Ljq/sfct-imp-us-sc-12.png

Assuage. That would be perfecto.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 18z Euro now has temps in the upper 20's for most of North & West Texas during the peak of the storm.

https://i.ibb.co/J5f2Ljq/sfct-imp-us-sc-12.png

Assuage. That would be perfecto.

From living here for almost 4 years, the biggest flakes and snow totals occur when the temp is a few degrees below freezing. Obviously there are many factors involved, but 27-30 is the sweet spot for massive flakes and snowfall rates.

Also, possible thundersnow in DFW?

[TropicalTundra]

The 18z Euro now has temps in the upper 20's for most of North & West Texas during the peak of the storm.

https://i.ibb.co/J5f2Ljq/sfct-imp-us-sc-12.png

Assuage. That would be perfecto.

From living here for almost 4 years, the biggest flakes and snow totals occur when the temp is a few degrees below freezing. Obviously there are many factors involved, but 27-30 is the sweet spot for massive flakes and snowfall rates.

Also, possible thundersnow in DFW?

I remember Jan 2021 back when DFW got dry slotted I was getting basically quarter sized flakes or even bigger in the middle of the day. Granted it was 33F and quite moist.

[Iceresistance]

It's still snowing for me

19°F with a WC of 3°F

[orangeblood]

ENS probability charts are really ramping up now…

For the Metroplex, 90% plus chance of greater than 3” amounts now with 70-80% of 6” plus.

An extremely rare event unfolding

[Portastorm]

The bad news in all of this is my in-laws who live in St Louis, can’t get home now and if it doesn’t happen Tuesday or Wednesday, my winter storm buzz will be attenuated by their constant presence.

Poor guy. Sounds like the makings of a comedy film.

[Iceresistance]

EPS still bullseyes DFW and just west, even though I do wonder if it has trended more north since the last map I posted


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXn4e.jpg

[orangeblood]

EPS still bullseyes DFW and just west, even though I do wonder if it has trended more north since the last map I posted

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXn4e.jpg
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXn4e.jpg

[Ntxw]

ENS probability charts are really ramping up now…

For the Metroplex, 90% plus chance of greater than 3” amounts now with 70-80% of 6” plus.

An extremely rare event unfolding

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_ge_3/1736100000/1736575200-XZtb9dI6g8M.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_ge_6/1736100000/1736575200-1c52Ja77eno.png

Haven't seen this from EC ENS since I've been following it for our area. And there is time yet for that to keep up ticking. Really curious convective banding. Max for events of this caliber typically is in the 12-14" range. ~1.5" qpf equivalent would not be too crazy for someone lucky.

DFW's highest totals all time to watch for.

[Quixotic]

The bad news in all of this is my in-laws who live in St Louis, can’t get home now and if it doesn’t happen Tuesday or Wednesday, my winter storm buzz will be attenuated by their constant presence.

Poor guy. Sounds like the makings of a comedy film.

More like cabin fever really.

[katheria]

Still lurking around after all these years lol
Enjoy the snow, it's the one I'll allow this year lol
Honestly after 2021 I'm just not excited as I used to be
8 days with out power, no heat except a small electric heater off a generator, 15k in new plumbing in the old country house (Exclusion in insurance policy) 125 year old wood floors ruined etc
Time to move to the tropics

[Iceresistance]

EPS still bullseyes DFW and just west, even though I do wonder if it has trended more north since the last map I posted

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXn4e.jpg
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXn4e.jpg

https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-tx-total_snow_10to1-1736100000-1736510400-1736510400-40.gif

Well, that last run was a major uptick

[orangeblood]

ENS probability charts are really ramping up now…

For the Metroplex, 90% plus chance of greater than 3” amounts now with 70-80% of 6” plus.

An extremely rare event unfolding

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_ge_3/1736100000/1736575200-XZtb9dI6g8M.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_ge_6/1736100000/1736575200-1c52Ja77eno.png

Haven't seen this from EC ENS since I've been following it for our area. And there is time yet for that to keep up ticking. Really curious convective banding. Max for events of this caliber typically is in the 12-14" range. ~1.5" qpf equivalent would not be too crazy for someone lucky.

DFW's highest totals all time to watch for.

https://i.imgur.com/ONM2uIj.png

Me neither, likely a first for this model at DFW. ENS mean forecasting a top 5 snow event from 4 days out is crazy!

[Texas Snow]

The bad news in all of this is my in-laws who live in St Louis, can’t get home now and if it doesn’t happen Tuesday or Wednesday, my winter storm buzz will be attenuated by their constant presence.

Poor guy. Sounds like the makings of a comedy film.

More like cabin fever really.

Just made it home from a long weekend at my in-laws. This page discussing the upcoming storm is what pulled me through as I hit refresh probably one thousand times since Thursday. Thank y’all.

[HockeyTx82]

Poor guy. Sounds like the makings of a comedy film.

More like cabin fever really.

Just made it home from a long weekend at my in-laws. This page discussing the upcoming storm is what pulled me through as I hit refresh probably one thousand times since Thursday. Thank y’all.

Wait a minute. You left your in-laws just to get back on a weather forum?

[Ralph's Weather]

EPS band of ice is from Hill Country through southern East Texas, ice amounts in that band look to be generally 0.1-0.5" of freezing rain. North of there should be mainly snow with a large 4"+ area centered on a San Angelo to Texarkana line and 100 miles to either side. Max is centered on DFW with over 6". I anticipate more chance for that to shift SE than NW, but that band seems pretty locked in near where it is. I agree that convection could see someone in N TX get over a foot.