Texas Winter 2025-2026

[IcyTundra]

Ya the gfs keeps the moisture up above Victoria to Houston… it’s like the freezing temps don’t make it this far south! We just need it to be a little more delayed and then come across after the front…

GFS typically doesn't handle shallow artic air masses well. Wouldn't shock me if surface temps are a bit colder than GFS is showing.

[orangeblood]

what is the euro winning out on?

Nada. It’s 4-5 days out. I have a neutral opinion on the GFS and no dog in the argument. But it literally just hit winter weather in the south 2 days ago mostly as a lone wolf model for over a week. Doesn’t mean squat for next weekend but I wouldn’t bet money against it either. It may have the ice too far south. But there’s time to adjust either way.

The GFS caved to King Euro is the point we are making. 9 of 10 times it does, well documented on this board for 20 years

[Quixotic]

One of the runs three days ago had convective type accumulation.

I’ll take my 8” and call it a winter. More likely it’s an inch or two of sleet and 3-5” of snow on top

[orangeblood]

One of the runs three days ago had convective type accumulation.

I’ll take my 8” and call it a winter. More likely it’s an inch or two of sleet and 3-5” of snow on top

Thundersleet with temps in the upper teens DFW Saturday morning on the CMC

[txtwister78]

what is the euro winning out on?

Nada. It’s 4-5 days out. I have a neutral opinion on the GFS and no dog in the argument. But it literally just hit winter weather in the south 2 days ago mostly as a lone wolf model for over a week. Doesn’t mean squat for next weekend but I wouldn’t bet money against it either. It may have the ice too far south. But there’s time to adjust either way.

The GFS caved to King Euro is the point we are making. 9 of 10 times it does, well documented on this board for 20 years

Brother not that I care about model wars, but it's the other way around. The GFS was showing cold before Euro came around (let's keep that a buck at least on that). Granted the GFS went full out to lunch mode on the 18z run but hardly a cave when it was out in front early on regarding showing the potential setup when the Euro wasn't.

[Quixotic]

One of the runs three days ago had convective type accumulation.

I’ll take my 8” and call it a winter. More likely it’s an inch or two of sleet and 3-5” of snow on top

Thundersleet with temps in the upper teens DFW Saturday morning on the CMC

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/scentus/t2m_f/1768867200/1769266800-lr0MfLDn4HA.png

I hope it transitions to snow quickly. 2003 and 2013 were awful. I felt like Jack Torrance in the Shining.

[Ntxw]

One of the runs three days ago had convective type accumulation.

I’ll take my 8” and call it a winter. More likely it’s an inch or two of sleet and 3-5” of snow on top

Thundersleet with temps in the upper teens DFW Saturday morning on the CMC

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/scentus/t2m_f/1768867200/1769266800-lr0MfLDn4HA.png

I hope it transitions to snow quickly. 2003 and 2013 were awful. I felt like Jack Torrance in the Shining.

Personally rooting for a 2010 type event, let the subtropical jet do the work the first 24 hours and see what happens! I had never seen the STJ as good as that period since. I remember one of the mets txagwxman posted looking at the EPAC toss everything it is so juiced up, the mix forecast lower totals etc. This is a colder set up surprisingly but shallower cold though.

[Steve]

what is the euro winning out on?

Nada. It’s 4-5 days out. I have a neutral opinion on the GFS and no dog in the argument. But it literally just hit winter weather in the south 2 days ago mostly as a lone wolf model for over a week. Doesn’t mean squat for next weekend but I wouldn’t bet money against it either. It may have the ice too far south. But there’s time to adjust either way.

The GFS caved to King Euro is the point we are making. 9 of 10 times it does, well documented on this board for 20 years

Hyperbole. If you are a Texan you’ve seen the euro cave to the icon in the early 20’s multiple times too. Despite its often inherent warm bias, I generally prefer the EC for winter and tropics. But no way in heck it hits 9 of 10

[Ntxw]

Nada. It’s 4-5 days out. I have a neutral opinion on the GFS and no dog in the argument. But it literally just hit winter weather in the south 2 days ago mostly as a lone wolf model for over a week. Doesn’t mean squat for next weekend but I wouldn’t bet money against it either. It may have the ice too far south. But there’s time to adjust either way.

The GFS caved to King Euro is the point we are making. 9 of 10 times it does, well documented on this board for 20 years

Hyperbole. If you are a Texan you’ve seen the euro cave to the icon in the early 20’s multiple times too. I generally prefer the EC for winter and tropics. But no way in hell it hits 9 of 10

For us, the Euro often is better at 500mb, especially in the medium range. The stats globally also backs it up as it is often the the highest scoring, does not mean in every region. Where the Euro can fail is southward cold air movement during major arctic outbreaks because for whatever reason it does not handle the topography, cold dense air movement vs the upper flow to well when you have zonal flow.

[Ptarmigan]

If the forecast models are having it similar to January 1997, that would be a major problem.

[Harp.1]

The CMC took away our snow around the first.

[jaguars_22]

Yep this is a central Texas to north Texas storm!

[Stratton23]

Lol dont worry about that, their are some models ( AI AIFS) and some ensemble members that suggest another surge of arctic air around the 30th, but thats a different story for another time

[orangeblood]

Nada. It’s 4-5 days out. I have a neutral opinion on the GFS and no dog in the argument. But it literally just hit winter weather in the south 2 days ago mostly as a lone wolf model for over a week. Doesn’t mean squat for next weekend but I wouldn’t bet money against it either. It may have the ice too far south. But there’s time to adjust either way.

The GFS caved to King Euro is the point we are making. 9 of 10 times it does, well documented on this board for 20 years

Hyperbole. If you are a Texan you’ve seen the euro cave to the icon in the early 20’s multiple times too. I generally prefer the EC for winter and tropics. But no way in hell it hits 9 of 10

I’m referring to the upper levels, it’ll typically figure that out way before the others. Sure surface depictions will vary but at the upper levels it is the leader. You’ll get most forecasts correct if you get 5h pinned down

[Stratton23]

jaguars_22 oh no, SE texas is definitely in play, if not its becoming very likely that SE texas sees some amount of freezing rain/ sleet combo

[Steve]

The GFS caved to King Euro is the point we are making. 9 of 10 times it does, well documented on this board for 20 years

Hyperbole. If you are a Texan you’ve seen the euro cave to the icon in the early 20’s multiple times too. I generally prefer the EC for winter and tropics. But no way in hell it hits 9 of 10

For us, the Euro often is better at 500mb, especially in the medium range. The stats globally also backs it up as it is often the the highest scoring, does not mean in every region. Where the Euro can fail is southward cold air movement during major arctic outbreaks because for whatever reason it does not handle the topography, cold dense air movement vs the upper flow to well when you have zonal flow.

It’s also failed multiple times in the last 4 years in the NW Gulf re the tropics. NW gulf is y’all but that’s alright. It doesn’t hit 90%. It’s a preferred model for me but not perfect.

[Steve]

The GFS caved to King Euro is the point we are making. 9 of 10 times it does, well documented on this board for 20 years

Hyperbole. If you are a Texan you’ve seen the euro cave to the icon in the early 20’s multiple times too. I generally prefer the EC for winter and tropics. But no way in hell it hits 9 of 10

I’m referring to the upper levels, it’ll typically figure that out way before the others. Sure surface depictions will vary but at the upper levels it is the leader. You’ll get most forecasts correct if you get 5h pinned down

No knock on that. EC at 500 and up is usually the standard.

[Ntxw]

GEFS expanded the ~1" qpf a little north and westward.

[Stratton23]

Some of the GEFS members are lingering this winter storm now into monday afternoon, that’s absolutely insane

[BAY29]

Would the lingering precipitation be in SE Texas?