Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a quote from JB this morning: "undercutting jet leads to rain in southwest and threat of snow/ice problems deep into the south. Blocky look means Florida and South Texas not immune from damaging cold in next 20 days" Looks to me like we are definitely still on for cold. And for all of you in south Texas or Florida thinking that winter is done...just hold on..winter WILL return.

[jasons2k]

Here is a quote from JB this morning: "undercutting jet leads to rain in southwest and threat of snow/ice problems deep into the south. Blocky look means Florida and South Texas not immune from damaging cold in next 20 days" Looks to me like we are definitely still on for cold. And for all of you in south Texas or Florida thinking that winter is done...just hold on..winter WILL return.

"not immune" doesn't translate into imminent cold. It simply means the threat is there.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Here is a quote from JB this morning: "undercutting jet leads to rain in southwest and threat of snow/ice problems deep into the south. Blocky look means Florida and South Texas not immune from damaging cold in next 20 days" Looks to me like we are definitely still on for cold. And for all of you in south Texas or Florida thinking that winter is done...just hold on..winter WILL return.

I don't know about the snow/ice problems in the South, but I do believe the long stretch of above normal temps is coming to an end over much of the country in the next week or two. If I lived anywhere from Minneapolis to KC to DC, I'd be digging out the snow plow. For us in the South, we'll probably get a few shots of modified polar air out of this, but I believe there will be prolonged effects in the Midwest and NE. The ensembles have been showing this for a while now.

[jasons2k]

From NWS DFW:

OVERALL WE DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT BUCKLING OF THE WESTERLIES AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR MASSES MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS WANT TO BUILD A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IN ABOUT 10 DAYS BUT CLIMATOLOGY IS PROBABLY PLAYING MORE A PART IN THE SOLUTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME CONTINUITY IN THAT SOLUTION BEFORE BELIEVING IT.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

From NWS DFW:

OVERALL WE DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT BUCKLING OF THE WESTERLIES AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR MASSES MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS WANT TO BUILD A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IN ABOUT 10 DAYS BUT CLIMATOLOGY IS PROBABLY PLAYING MORE A PART IN THE SOLUTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME CONTINUITY IN THAT SOLUTION BEFORE BELIEVING IT.

That sounds about right coming from the NWS offices in Texas when it comes to Arctic outbreaks. Again they don't go back to the history books and rely soley on modeling

[jasons2k]

From NWS DFW:

OVERALL WE DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT BUCKLING OF THE WESTERLIES AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR MASSES MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS WANT TO BUILD A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IN ABOUT 10 DAYS BUT CLIMATOLOGY IS PROBABLY PLAYING MORE A PART IN THE SOLUTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME CONTINUITY IN THAT SOLUTION BEFORE BELIEVING IT.

That sounds about right coming from the NWS offices in Texas when it comes to Arctic outbreaks. Again they don't go back to the history books and rely soley on modeling

I doubt that, NWS offices in TX use climatology just as much as any one else, but even if that were true, the last year has completely re-written weather history all across the globe...you can pretty much toss history out the window at this rate.

[Portastorm]

Did you expect something different?

I expected nothing. I had hoped for a little more consistency.

[plainsman]

here we go again is this arctic air going to come this time... are the southern plains going to see some good snow/ice out of this? this is like the 3rd time in a month accuweather has wintry precip for the Dallas Ft.worth,tx area okc,ok tulsa,ok lubbock,tx wichita falls,tx little rock,ark wichita ks, hopefully it pans out this time.. accuweather always has a 4 degree temperature difference between Dallas and ft.worth... i know theres some pretty good elevation in ft.worth.. but that seems kinda weird to me... the northern plains should be brutally cold and the central plains should see a good sized snow event out of this!..... bring on some arctic air...

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like winter might be done after all just as I thought. Sure felt like an April day today.

[Tyler]

Looks like winter might be done after all just as I thought. Sure felt like an April day today.

Please do not focus on one model solution. Thank you.

[Portastorm]

Looks like winter might be done after all just as I thought. Sure felt like an April day today.

Please do not focus on one model solution. Thank you.

Well in that case, I guess I can't post how the new 12z run of the European is icy cold for Texas starting Saturday.

You guys are spoiling all my fun!

Oh ... the link ... here it is:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_144.gif

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Looks like winter might be done after all just as I thought. Sure felt like an April day today.

Please do not focus on one model solution. Thank you.

Well in that case, I guess I can't post how the new 12z run of the European is icy cold for Texas starting Saturday.

You guys are spoiling all my fun!

Oh ... the link ... here it is:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_144.gif

If this happens, the NWS offices are going to be revising forecasts like we have never seen this week. It should be interesting to see what the overnight AFD's say in the morning about this.

[Brent]

"Within 20 days" LOL... didn't he say that about a month ago? Above normal for the next week here... Arctic outbreak has been delayed yet again. <not surprised>

[Extremeweatherguy]

"Within 20 days" LOL... didn't he say that about a month ago? Above normal for the next week here... Arctic outbreak has been delayed yet again. <not surprised>

it has not been delayed. We have been saying the week of the 5th for over a week now and are still saying the week of the 5th.

[Tyler]

"Within 20 days" LOL... didn't he say that about a month ago? Above normal for the next week here... Arctic outbreak has been delayed yet again. <not surprised>

Ok... How many freaking times are you going to say "its been delayed". That is a completely false statement and you know it. As extremeweather just said, the week of the 5th has been said at least a dozen times as the change of the pattern. And yet, here you are saying its been delayed?

[Tyler]

Looks like winter might be done after all just as I thought. Sure felt like an April day today.

Please do not focus on one model solution. Thank you.

Well in that case, I guess I can't post how the new 12z run of the European is icy cold for Texas starting Saturday.

You guys are spoiling all my fun!

Oh ... the link ... here it is:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_144.gif

No, I was just saying to look at the overall trend. I wasn't saying you couldn't look at one model solution, just don't put too much stock into it!

[Extremeweatherguy]

My prediction is:

This week: Mild.

Week of the 5th: Becoming colder. First arctic front.

Week of the 12th: Cold and snow hit Houston.

We'll see how it plays out, but I am pretty sure this will be right. lol

[Tyler]

My prediction is:

This week: Mild.

Week of the 5th: Becoming colder. First arctic front.

Week of the 12th: Cold and snow hit Houston.

We'll see how it plays out, but I am pretty sure this will be right. lol

Boy I wish! lol

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS is really deepening that storm over the south next weekend. If it comes to pass the cold comes southward.

Possible Blizzard for Tn Vly. up to the NE.

[jkt21787]

The GFS is really deepening that storm over the south next weekend. If it comes to pass the cold comes southward.

Possible Blizzard for Tn Vly. up to the NE.

Yeah, GFS prints out about 10" of the white stuff here in Memphis. Extremely unlikely. 18z GFS should be taken out to the garbage, though it does have a few aspects correct (storm occurring w/possible severe weather in the SE). Its the blizzard in the Mid-South up into the OH Valley/Midwest and the extreme deep LP/bombing it likely has wrong.

As said on the US side of the forum, however, it will have to be watched.