Texas Winter 2013-2014

[gpsnowman]

Thanks ravyrn! Not sure I would consider myself weather savvy but I do like to stay informed and perceptive. I will say this though, my weather knowledge has increased 10 fold since I found this board.
It seems like many pieces of the Texas winter puzzle are slowly coming together. We just have to be patient!! We will send ole 57 packing and heading for the nearest beach! His warm powers can only last so long. Winter will eventually take over.

[gpsnowman]

Joe B tweeted several hours ago that it is possible for a little snow/sleet tonight during the Cowboys game. Also, KDFW Evan Andrews mentioned in his morning forecast the a snow flurry is possible. Maybe a little surprise brewing? We shall see.

[wxman57]

Is the front passing through DFW early? It seems to be getting colder.

The front is still well north of Dallas. It just went through Wichita Falls last hour.

[dhweather]

Even if it isn't real I think I'm going to post this. Just so we can look back and see that it can be shown on a model. Don't think I've ever seen anything like this before on any model since posting on this board so worth archiving for future reference, for studying of course.

http://i39.tinypic.com/f207dj.gif

And to Portastorm's post, here was the Euro but doesn't go out as far yet

http://i42.tinypic.com/2lmm61k.gif

1066 high in Montana - that's impressive! Don't see that very often.

[wxman57]

Yep, interesting 00Z GFS run. I'm sure the 14-day GFS temps will turn out just as last night's run predicted. Setting the sarcasm aside, We seem to be in a pattern this winter that could allow some quite cold air to drop south to the Gulf Coast. Maybe the GFS does see something THIS time? Start believing it in about 10 or 11 days if it still indicates the cold air coming down. Note that the cold air is gone on the next run...

[Snowman67]

Interesting little snippet from this morning's Hou/Galv NWS Forecast Discussion. 57's favorite part is bolded

MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF MUCH
STRONGER AND AMPLIFIED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF SHOULD SET UP IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE AS A RESULT BUT
COULD BE SHORT LIVED. ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
FOR THE JAN 5-6 TIME FRAME. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER DEVELOPING
AMPLIFIED PATTERN LIKE THE ECMWF BUT STILL TOO MUCH MODEL SPREAD
TO MAKE ANY KIND OF LONG RANGE FORECAST.

[wxman57]

Interesting little snippet from this morning's Hou/Galv NWS Forecast Discussion. 57's favorite part is bolded

MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF MUCH
STRONGER AND AMPLIFIED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF SHOULD SET UP IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE AS A RESULT BUT
COULD BE SHORT LIVED. ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
FOR THE JAN 5-6 TIME FRAME. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER DEVELOPING
AMPLIFIED PATTERN LIKE THE ECMWF BUT STILL TOO MUCH MODEL SPREAD
TO MAKE ANY KIND OF LONG RANGE FORECAST.

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro ensembles and deterministic 3hr temp forecast for Houston and don't see any cold air for the 5th. For the 6th, the deterministic run has a low of 32 followed by a low of 28-29 on the 7th. That would not qualify as a "strong Arctic front", at least in winter. Perhaps in August...

[NDG]

Not sure why would they mention the ECMWF's 6-10 day range, when it is so inconsistent from run to run in that time frame over and over again.

[Ntxw]

Yep, interesting 00Z GFS run. I'm sure the 14-day GFS temps will turn out just as last night's run predicted. Setting the sarcasm aside, We seem to be in a pattern this winter that could allow some quite cold air to drop south to the Gulf Coast. Maybe the GFS does see something THIS time? Start believing it in about 10 or 11 days if it still indicates the cold air coming down. Note that the cold air is gone on the next run...

This has been the case for days. The euro has been going black and white too. Probably not a clue . It matters not though cold front is coming through Texas today and just adds to more below average temps that outweighs the couple of days above dragging the averages down further. It's a cold winter, writing is all over the wall (for Texas and plains not so much for the southeast).

1066 high in Montana - that's impressive! Don't see that very often.

It was 1069, I believe the US record high pressure was over MT at 1064. It was fun seeing it on a map.


As far as any snow or sleet tonight I think it's a slim chance. Just not enough moisture after the cold passes and bulk of vorticity is down in MX. Virga maybe?

[Wntrwthrguy]

Doesn't matter much due to very low precip chances, but does this air mass have deeper cold air associated with it? Or is it shallow like the other cold fronts so far this fall/winter?

[Ntxw]

Doesn't matter much due to very low precip chances, but does this air mass have deeper cold air associated with it? Or is it shallow like the other cold fronts so far this fall/winter?

It's a deeper cold air mass than the others we have seen, most of the column above is below freezing. It's not as cold arguably at the surface than the prior blasts, weird isn't it (EPO is neutral)? Fact that the AO is now negative probably has something to do with it!

[Portastorm]

Overnight guidance as well as the ensembles continue to paint a muddled picture for the future. Get excited or depressed at your own risk about any particular model run. That means you, wxman57 and your Heat Miserly gloating!

Model solutions remain way too volatile. Below is the 8-10 day graphic this morning from the GFS, Euro, and CMC. See for yourself.

King Euro appears to have descended into madness on his throne as, yes, he has gone back and forth. The 12z run yesterday had an Arctic outbreak for Texas at 9-10 days. The overnight 0z run had a much more progressive trough swinging west to east across the country at that same time.

Progged teleconnection indices per this morning's update still show, through 1/10/14, a -EPO/-WPO/-PNA/+NAO set up.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Wntrwthrguy]

Doesn't matter much due to very low precip chances, but does this air mass have deeper cold air associated with it? Or is it shallow like the other cold fronts so far this fall/winter?

It's a deeper cold air mass than the others we have seen, most of the column above is below freezing. It's not as cold arguably at the surface than the prior blasts, weird isn't it? Fact that the AO is now negative probably has something to do with it!

That is weird but not all that surprising. Seems there is always something working against us to give us snow. Whether it is no moisture, surface temps are too warm but air aloft is cold enough, or air aloft is too warm.

[Portastorm]

Doesn't matter much due to very low precip chances, but does this air mass have deeper cold air associated with it? Or is it shallow like the other cold fronts so far this fall/winter?

It's a deeper cold air mass than the others we have seen, most of the column above is below freezing. It's not as cold arguably at the surface than the prior blasts, weird isn't it? Fact that the AO is now negative probably has something to do with it!

That is weird but not all that surprising. Seems there is always something working against us to give us snow. Whether it is no moisture, surface temps are too warm but air aloft is cold enough, or air aloft is too warm.

One really has to think about this in a 3-D way. You can have a deeper cold airmass which gets eroded by a strong southerly flow at lower to the mid levels of the atmosphere. You can have a shallow cold airmass with a warm westerly flow above it. It really depends.

Then there are the intangibles such as snow cover to the north ... temps from the source region of the air, etc.

[Ntxw]

Overnight guidance as well as the ensembles continue to paint a muddled picture for the future. Get excited or depressed at your own risk about any particular model run. That means you, wxman57 and your Heat Miserly gloating!

Model solutions remain way too volatile. Below is the 8-10 day graphic this morning from the GFS, Euro, and CMC. See for yourself.

It's like a racetrack Portastorm! The models do fine going 100mph and bending to the curves. But then a sign says halt and do a 180 (-AO) and they crash and burn trying to spin around!

[Portastorm]

Overnight guidance as well as the ensembles continue to paint a muddled picture for the future. Get excited or depressed at your own risk about any particular model run. That means you, wxman57 and your Heat Miserly gloating!

Model solutions remain way too volatile. Below is the 8-10 day graphic this morning from the GFS, Euro, and CMC. See for yourself.

It's like a racetrack Portastorm! The models do fine going 100mph and bending to the curves. But then a sign says halt and do a 180 (-AO) and they crash and burn trying to spin around!

Indeed. And true to form, I just perused the 12z GFS run and at or about 168-180 hours out, one can start seeing big differences between this 12z run and just 12 hours earlier from the 0z run.

It's just really hard to have much confidence in these model runs beyond 4-5 days out at this point.

[srainhoutx]

I know there is a lot of chatter concerning what we may expect later in the upcoming week into next weekend. The Global ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to struggle with the -WPO/-EPO/-AO telecommunications regime and what the sensible weather will be regard this pattern change. The operational Euro dropped a very deep trough into the Western/Central US yesterday with its 12Z run while the 00Z GFS was depicting a 1065+ mb Arctic High settling into Montana only to loose it with the 06Z output. The 12Z GFS is back to a deep trough pattern with a 1050+ mb Arctic High and a deep Western/Central trough delivering much colder air well south into the Western 2/3rds of the Continental United States. Canada remains very cold, so our source regions are certainly capable of delivering a cold shot into our Region. The New Year appears to start very unsettled with a front arriving Thursday with perhaps a much colder front arriving next weekend. We will see.

[Ntxw]

Thanks for the reminder srain, speaking of source regions...here's North America as whole. Been on the news lately about cold, snow, and ice battering the US, Asia and Europe definitely has been in envy of NA for it's cold this year which has planted itself on our side of the globe. really since about 2006 it's been over there with bouts during 2009-2011 making appearance over here. Pretty lasting this year, doesn't matter if the pattern is unfavorable we still managed to be cold.



As for the EPO, going back to November the EPO has been negative the entire time!!! I have never seen such a prolonged stretch of -EPO daily's before. And really if you take away a few days in early Nov it began in mid October! I wonder if it's some kind of record?

Source:

Daily EPO Index

[Rgv20]

More rain forecast for my area starting late tonight until Monday with temperatures in the upper 40s. Most of the RGV should see an inch or more of Rain in the next 3 days!

[TheProfessor]

The nam appears to be showing some sleet passing through areas north of I-20.