Texas Winter 2020-2021

[cajungal]

I been trying to get in all day since 7:30 this morning on my iPhone and kept getting a general error message. I don’t even know how I managed to get in now. I removed it from my home page and tried again, still getting the same error message. I really want to keep up on this forum since I am from Louisiana and sometimes Texas gives me an idea what I may get. And will be in San Antonio next Monday. Thanks

[TexasBreeze]

Clear the cookies and cache under browsing privacy history. Worked for me earlier in the week -had the same problem

[Ntxw]

Just wanted to bring back to light the prior discussions about cold air knocking east. If you look back and see how things have trended from, both idea of east and west is correct. The cA air is a huge lobe that back then the models only saw the first wave/spoke and this weekend does push to the east. That's about as far as the models went at the time, but clearly there is way more to it than that. This is frequently a problem of how we interpret models beyond truncation. We get spokes of cold until the whole thing just overwhelms the country.

Often this is how Arctic Outbreaks play out. The TPV likes to move to the lakes and eastern Canada taking one lobe of cold, while HP dome moves a different path. Nothing is in stone until it happens but just something to think about when viewing Arctic Outbreaks in the future.

[HockeyTx82]

(Note: This is a big post)
Part 2 (and Final) of the final WinterWX odds on 2.4.2021

Confidence for the Polar Vortex on the 2nd week of February: 90%

Discussion:

All models are extremely consistant for the polar vortex to dive down into the Midwest by the 2nd week of February.
There was some models for the system to jog eastward towards the Great Lakes up to 18z, but now that possibility is now likely gone.
Temperatures will fall well below freezing & may stay that way for DAYS, including Texas & Oklahoma.
Wind Chills can fall down to -10°F in some areas depending on the wind.
Temperatures can fall down to near zero in Northern Oklahoma.
This polar vortex increases the chances for severe winter storms across the Southern Plains

Confidence for a Winter Storm in the Southern Plains Late Next Week: 60%

Impact levels:
(NOTE: All Severe impact zones are generally east of US-283)

North-Central Texas: Elevated
North Texas: Elevated/Enhanced/High
Along the Red River bordering Texas & Oklahoma: High/Moderate
South of I-40 & West of US-183 in Oklahoma: Moderate/Enhanced
North of I-40 & West of US-183 in Oklahoma: Enhanced/Elevated
Between I-35 & US-183 in Oklahoma: Elevated/Low
NW Oklahoma & NE Panhandle Texas: Low
SW Oklahoma: Minimal

My Discussion & Potental Totals:

Increasing confidence on Several Models for a winter storm in the Southern Plains Late Next week has allowed me to set up impact zones in Northern Texas & the Main portion of Oklahoma.
The Only model that has zero snow is the CMC model from 12z
Even though the Storm timeline is from Thrusday Night to Friday Evening.
Up to .1 inch of Ice is possible in North-Central Texas, up to 1/4 inch in Northern Texas
Considerable amount of Sleet is possible from Southern Oklahoma to Northern Texas, generally 2-3 inches with up to 4-5 inches of Sleet
Central Oklahoma & The Dallas Metroplex can have around .5 inch to 2 inches of sleet
Snow totals is 1-3 inches in Northern & NE Oklahoma, 3-5 inches on top of Sleet in Central Oklahoma (Parts of Eastern Oklahoma can get up to 6 inches depending on how fast the Sleet changes over to snow)
1-2 inches in NW Oklahoma
And a dusting of snow in Southern Oklahoma & Northern Texas

Where are you getting this? What's the source?

[Texas Snow]

:uarrow: Clear the cookies and cache under browsing privacy history. Worked for me earlier in the week -had the same problem

Yep happened to me yesterday on my iPad only. Everything else (including iPhone) worked fine. Did this and immediately worked.

Settings / Safari / Clear History & website data

[cajungal]

:uarrow: Clear the cookies and cache under browsing privacy history. Worked for me earlier in the week -had the same problem

Thank you! It seems to be working now

[gboudx]

Where are you getting this? What's the source?

I believe all of it is the posters own opinion and not from any other source. I could wrong. But man, I sure hope most/all of that happens for the posters sake, because that’s a heckuva fall if it doesn’t.

[orangeblood]

Just wanted to bring back to light the prior discussions about cold air knocking east. If you look back and see how things have trended from, both idea of east and west is correct. The cA air is a huge lobe that back then the models only saw the first wave/spoke and this weekend does push to the east. That's about as far as the models went at the time, but clearly there is way more to it than that. This is frequently a problem of how we interpret models beyond truncation. We get spokes of cold until the whole thing just overwhelms the country.

Often this is how Arctic Outbreaks play out. The TPV likes to move to the lakes and eastern Canada taking one lobe of cold, while HP dome moves a different path. Nothing is in stone until it happens but just something to think about when viewing Arctic Outbreaks in the future.

https://i.imgur.com/BeFIrC0.gif

What stands out about this potential outbreak is the below normal temps from The Florida Keys all the way up to Barrow Alaska...pretty rare to see below normal temps of this magnitude in both Alaska and lower 48

[Brent]

Where are you getting this? What's the source?

I believe all of it is the posters own opinion and not from any other source. I could wrong. But man, I sure hope most/all of that happens for the posters sake, because that’s a heckuva fall if it doesn’t.

that's quite a prediction considering its a week out

[Texas Snow]

Where are you getting this? What's the source?

I believe all of it is the posters own opinion and not from any other source. I could wrong. But man, I sure hope most/all of that happens for the posters sake, because that’s a heckuva fall if it doesn’t.

that's quite a prediction considering its a week out

Heck I feel bad if I tell a friend that I see maybe, possibly, a tiny chance of snow maybe 5 days out but it’s way too soon to know if it may not be 50 and sunny instead and the end result is 33 degree drizzle. So close yet so far...

[Quixotic]

Just wanted to bring back to light the prior discussions about cold air knocking east. If you look back and see how things have trended from, both idea of east and west is correct. The cA air is a huge lobe that back then the models only saw the first wave/spoke and this weekend does push to the east. That's about as far as the models went at the time, but clearly there is way more to it than that. This is frequently a problem of how we interpret models beyond truncation. We get spokes of cold until the whole thing just overwhelms the country.

Often this is how Arctic Outbreaks play out. The TPV likes to move to the lakes and eastern Canada taking one lobe of cold, while HP dome moves a different path. Nothing is in stone until it happens but just something to think about when viewing Arctic Outbreaks in the future.

https://i.imgur.com/BeFIrC0.gif

What stands out about this potential outbreak is the below normal temps from The Florida Keys all the way up to Barrow Alaska...pretty rare to see below normal temps of this magnitude in both Alaska and lower 48

I was thinking the exact same thing.

[orangeblood]

Well The German model should grab some attention this evening!

[Rgv20]

ICE AGE!?!

[HockeyTx82]

Well The German model should grab some attention this evening!

German?

[HockeyTx82]

:uarrow: ICE AGE!?!

https://i.imgur.com/8lRnjEE.png

With all the posting extreme model runs are we truly looking at a potential for a once a few decades event next week?

What point do we buy in on such extremes?

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow, that 0z gfs is looking real nice for a lot of tx and ok

[Ntxw]

0z GFS parties like it's 1978.

[fendie]

“It’s damn near as deadly as Texans on ice”
- James McMurtry, “Holiday”

[Texas Snow]

0z GFS parties like it's 1978.

If I remember ‘78 correctly (I was very young so I may be off a year either way) my neighbors 3 huge pine trees in Denton had the tips touching the ground with ice. After that storm there were 2 pine trees.

[Ntxw]

Whether it happens or not, GFS and ICON are some of the coldest runs I've ever seen for the region.