Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Texas Snow]

That's what I thought. Any suggestions for pay sites? I understand they cannot be posted here...

[Ntxw]

That's what I thought. Any suggestions for pay sites? I understand they cannot be posted here...

Weatherbell and accuweather are popular ones. StormVista is another. We'll generally post what areas we see that gets snow. If we don't mention, then its probably dry for that location or not showing snow

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im still depressed that high is killing SE Tx chances. Was a great opportunity wasted! So bitter right now.

Our snow chances were never high with this event (<2%). Going from 2% to 0.1% isn't too much of a change.

I disagree, Main thing that has changed is the high off of mexico flexing its muscles. Precip is there, cold air is basically there as well. Its killing our chances. Yes our chances are always low 8 days out but the storm system is still there, just not digging like it was before.



Great news for California and their water supply.

[Theepicman116]

All this snow talk has me excited! Since I'm not a professional I leave to the ones who are. I also leave it to the models.
Since I want snow I'm liking the GFS model over the European Model. Getting Snow is great and having school (I'm in high school) cancelled is just a bonus!

Where are you located, epicman? You might include a general location in your profile. Welcome to the forum. Personally, I like the model that's forecasting the warmest weather for Houston...

DFW area. Are you the one people in these threads talk about? The one who hates winter? The one who hates the good thing about the cold, snow?

[Brent]

The 18z NAM has a snow band moving fairly quickly NW to SE across DFW Friday evening. Looks to stay north of about Waco-Tyler and then it moves east

[stormlover2013]

nam is colder also

[Ntxw]

All this snow talk has me excited! Since I'm not a professional I leave to the ones who are. I also leave it to the models.
Since I want snow I'm liking the GFS model over the European Model. Getting Snow is great and having school (I'm in high school) cancelled is just a bonus!

Where are you located, epicman? You might include a general location in your profile. Welcome to the forum. Personally, I like the model that's forecasting the warmest weather for Houston...

DFW area. Are you the one people in these threads talk about? The one who hates winter? The one who hates the good thing about the cold, snow?

Wxman57 is our resident heat miser who does not like cold. He loves snow though, but it is a dilemma that it must be cold for snow. If there were a real threat of snow in Houston you will see him transform into a snowmiser

[wxman57]

DFW area. Are you the one people in these threads talk about? The one who hates winter? The one who hates the good thing about the cold, snow?

Me, hate winter? Nah. I don't hate winter, I just hate the cold weather. I loved the early winter this year, with highs in the 80s. Now I do like snow, which is the only good thing that can come out of cold weather. But if it's not going to snow, I prefer temps in the 80s or higher.

[aggiecutter]

The last 5 runs of the GFS has showed anywhere from 2-4 inches of snow for the Texarkana area. Since we are now getting into the GFS's wheelhouse and it is showing consistency from run to run, I am starting to feel confident that Texarkana will have measurable snow Friday night.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pardon me for not remembering the year exactly, but this reminds me of a storm that occurred i believe in '94 or '95. I rememeber it being very cold and dreary in Houston while a storm tracked from Dallas to Atlanta. Maybe some of you can help me out with this.

[wxman57]

Our snow chances were never high with this event (<2%). Going from 2% to 0.1% isn't too much of a change.

I disagree, Main thing that has changed is the high off of mexico flexing its muscles. Precip is there, cold air is basically there as well. Its killing our chances. Yes our chances are always low 8 days out but the storm system is still there, just not digging like it was before... snip

As always our main problem will be deep enough cold air for snow. Current GFS indicates sub-freezing air a couple thousand feet up over Houston Friday night, but air well above freezing not far above that sub-freezing air. This would indicate possible sleet pellets as the precip came to an end Friday night. The "warm nose" just looks too warm for anything other than sleet. At no time does the GFS indicate that warm nose disappearing, even after the precip stops.

[Lane]

Pardon me for not remembering the year exactly, but this reminds me of a storm that occurred i believe in '94 or '95. I rememeber it being very cold and dreary in Houston while a storm tracked from Dallas to Atlanta. Maybe some of you can help me out with this.

Are you talking about the blizzard of '93?

[wxman57]

The last 5 runs of the GFS has showed anywhere from 2-4 inches of snow for the Texarkana area. Since we are now getting into the GFS's wheelhouse and it is showing consistency from run to run, I am starting to feel confident that Texarkana will have measurable snow Friday night.

One thing Ryan Maue pointed out is that the GFS "snowfall" maps on his site include freezing rain and sleet. Since the maps on Tropical Tidbits match those on WxBell's, I'd assume that Levi's page depicts snow, freezing rain, and sleet as "snowfall" accumulations. Just watch out for that.

[Brent]

Pardon me for not remembering the year exactly, but this reminds me of a storm that occurred i believe in '94 or '95. I rememeber it being very cold and dreary in Houston while a storm tracked from Dallas to Atlanta. Maybe some of you can help me out with this.

Are you talking about the blizzard of '93?

I lived in alabama then still my biggest snowstorm ever and closest thing to a blizzard I've seen. 4 foot drifts

Unfortunately i was 4 so memory isn't that great

[wxman57]

In contrast to Houston, the 6pm Friday GFS sounding for the Dallas-Ft. Worth area indicates a saturated atmosphere up to 500mb (18,000 ft) and the entire column (red line) colder than 0C (32F). If it's correct, then any precip falling on Friday would be snow.



For Austin (Portastorm), that same GFS indicates temperatures around 47-48 degrees at 850mb (5000ft) during the precip. As with Houston, there's a very shallow sub-freezing layer (around 2000 ft up) over Austin on Friday, but the warm nose lies above. This means at most you'd see a few sleet pellets as the precip ends. Of course, all this assumes that the GFS is correctly forecasting upper-air temps. Note that the latest NAM has a vertical profile that's a few degrees (2-4F) warmer than the GFS during the precip.

[wxman57]

Pardon me for not remembering the year exactly, but this reminds me of a storm that occurred i believe in '94 or '95. I rememeber it being very cold and dreary in Houston while a storm tracked from Dallas to Atlanta. Maybe some of you can help me out with this.

Are you talking about the blizzard of '93?

I lived in alabama then still my biggest snowstorm ever and closest thing to a blizzard I've seen. 4 foot drifts

Unfortunately i was 4 so memory isn't that great

Ha! I was "on the job" for 13 years in 1993. I remember the models, which only went out 48 hours or so back then, were forecasting a massive west Gulf low to form with near hurricane force winds. Could that really happen? It did. It produced a squall line that hit Florida with 100+ mph winds as it kicked out to the northeast and up the east U.S. coast, not to mention snow down to the Gulf coast.

[wxman57]

You want snow? Go to California near Lake Tahoe and all across the mountains (mostly national parks) of eastern California, where the ECMWF is forecasting over 13 feet of snow over the next week.

[gpsnowman]

I remember watching the 93 storm on TWC and being jealous. Don't recall what was happening in DFW at the time but I'm sure it was boring in comparison.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Our snow chances were never high with this event (<2%). Going from 2% to 0.1% isn't too much of a change.

I disagree, Main thing that has changed is the high off of mexico flexing its muscles. Precip is there, cold air is basically there as well. Its killing our chances. Yes our chances are always low 8 days out but the storm system is still there, just not digging like it was before... snip

As always our main problem will be deep enough cold air for snow. Current GFS indicates sub-freezing air a couple thousand feet up over Houston Friday night, but air well above freezing not far above that sub-freezing air. This would indicate possible sleet pellets as the precip came to an end Friday night. The "warm nose" just looks too warm for anything other than sleet. At no time does the GFS indicate that warm nose disappearing, even after the precip stops.

Id even take ice at this point hahaha. Yeah the warm nose was there.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pardon me for not remembering the year exactly, but this reminds me of a storm that occurred i believe in '94 or '95. I rememeber it being very cold and dreary in Houston while a storm tracked from Dallas to Atlanta. Maybe some of you can help me out with this.

Are you talking about the blizzard of '93?

Oh noooooo, i rememebr that one quite well. It was a cold march morning here in houston behind that one. I remember they said the models did very well with that storm.