Texas Winter 2016-2017

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Cavanaugh is the AFD overlord!

[Texas Snowman]

Feb 2014 I remember a weak system deprived of moisture and many promets showed no moisture, but it was cold enough the profiles were extremely efficient at making dendrites that it snowed anyway which we here on forums discussed the day before

Wasn't one of the Super Bowl snow events similar as well?As an overachiever that not much was expected from?

[Ntxw]

This message is for ntxw but ANYONE can answer this. Got a question. It looks like we fixing to warm up again after sunday. How long u think this warmup will last? Also, do u still think the mjo wont make it to the colder phases this winter? Reason i ask this is because im trying to find a reason to stay optimistic rest of winter before i throw in the towel. Not sure what kind of setup we want to see. I cant get a clear answer on that lol. Last thing is i noticed the warmer water in the 1+2 region of pacific. Does that have any implications for the winter moving forward? Just curious. Thsnks kevin

It's going to warm up next week after this cold. Could be very warm (60s to near 70 for a week) that gets us through mid January. Pattern could change to +PNA look with perhaps the EPO returning negative late month. The MJO is a crapshoot of a forecast, everytime you think it will amplify and move it doesn't really and stick around with the Nina background favored areas (Indonesia). SOI has been reflective of thus. It's far too early to throw in the towel you have Feb and early March to go. The seasons have been displaced the past couple of years. All of the Nino regions have had slow warming since peak in November. It's been pretty much what you would expect with La Nina, sharp quick cold shots with warm ups overtaking the negative anomalies. Mostly drier than normal. It's classic Nina climo that has been going on.

[Ntxw]

Feb 2014 I remember a weak system deprived of moisture and many promets showed no moisture, but it was cold enough the profiles were extremely efficient at making dendrites that it snowed anyway which we here on forums discussed the day before

Wasn't one of the Super Bowl snow events similar as well?As an overachiever that not much was expected from?

It was, but that event had a strong PV anomaly go over us, this is nothing near that strong. The Feb 2014 event is closer because the upper energy was elongated, sheared somewhat and weaker but it was cold

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114950&start=7240

I remember this because Steve McCauley's stat method did not work out, one of the rare times. Was really cold though...16-17F and snowing that morning. Ahh 2013-2014 what a nice winter that was. Every winter month had something...

[TheProfessor]

Feb 2014 I remember a weak system deprived of moisture and many promets showed no moisture, but it was cold enough the profiles were extremely efficient at making dendrites that it snowed anyway which we here on forums discussed the day before

Wasn't one of the Super Bowl snow events similar as well?As an overachiever that not much was expected from?

It was, but that event had a strong PV anomaly go over us, this is nothing near that strong. The Feb 2014 event is closer because the upper energy was elongated, sheared somewhat and weaker but it was cold

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114950&start=7240

I remember this because Steve McCauley's stat method did not work out, one of the rare times. Was really cold though...16-17F and snowing that morning. Ahh 2013-2014 what a nice winter that was. Every winter month had something...

I believe that event had ratios that would be rare even for Ohio. It was like 20-1 if I remember correctly, to get snow growth like that it doesn't just need to be cold at the surface but the dendritic growth zone has to be fairly low in the atmosphere as well. (growth zone lies between -12 to -17C)

[wxman57]

This message is for ntxw but ANYONE can answer this. Got a question. It looks like we fixing to warm up again after sunday. How long u think this warmup will last? Also, do u still think the mjo wont make it to the colder phases this winter? Reason i ask this is because im trying to find a reason to stay optimistic rest of winter before i throw in the towel. Not sure what kind of setup we want to see. I cant get a clear answer on that lol. Last thing is i noticed the warmer water in the 1+2 region of pacific. Does that have any implications for the winter moving forward? Just curious. Thsnks kevin

Hard question to answer - how long will the warm-up last? Considering that the global models might not have the flow patterns correct beyond the next week, there is much uncertainty. If you were to believe the GFS forecast, then we may be heading for 3-4 weeks of more seasonal cold fronts with above-normal temps in between. Nothing extremely cold through the end of January.

While I'd like to think that this will last until March, February has a reputation of being a snow month across Texas.

[Brent]

NAM looks weaker with the Friday storm... much smaller area of snow and mostly along the Red River. Also seems faster

[wxman57]

This message is for ntxw but ANYONE can answer this. Got a question. It looks like we fixing to warm up again after sunday. How long u think this warmup will last? Also, do u still think the mjo wont make it to the colder phases this winter? Reason i ask this is because im trying to find a reason to stay optimistic rest of winter before i throw in the towel. Not sure what kind of setup we want to see. I cant get a clear answer on that lol. Last thing is i noticed the warmer water in the 1+2 region of pacific. Does that have any implications for the winter moving forward? Just curious. Thsnks kevin

Hard question to answer - how long will the warm-up last? Considering that the global models might not have the flow patterns correct beyond the next week, there is much uncertainty. If you were to believe the GFS forecast, then we may be heading for 3-4 weeks of more seasonal cold fronts with above-normal temps in between. Nothing extremely cold through the end of January. The problem will be the temps in northern Canada, which may be warmer-than-normal for the rest of January. See the final panel of the latest GFS run below. With all that above-normal temperature area in Canada, where is the real cold going to come from? We need a pattern shift to get some really cold air across the Pole into northern Canada. I'm not seeing such a thing happening this month.

While I'd like to think that this will last until March, February has a reputation of being a snow month across Texas.

[Snowman67]

This message is for ntxw but ANYONE can answer this. Got a question. It looks like we fixing to warm up again after sunday. How long u think this warmup will last? Also, do u still think the mjo wont make it to the colder phases this winter? Reason i ask this is because im trying to find a reason to stay optimistic rest of winter before i throw in the towel. Not sure what kind of setup we want to see. I cant get a clear answer on that lol. Last thing is i noticed the warmer water in the 1+2 region of pacific. Does that have any implications for the winter moving forward? Just curious. Thsnks kevin

Hard question to answer - how long will the warm-up last? Considering that the global models might not have the flow patterns correct beyond the next week, there is much uncertainty. If you were to believe the GFS forecast, then we may be heading for 3-4 weeks of more seasonal cold fronts with above-normal temps in between. Nothing extremely cold through the end of January. The problem will be the temps in northern Canada, which may be warmer-than-normal for the rest of January. See the final panel of the latest GFS run below. With all that above-normal temperature area in Canada, where is the real cold going to come from? We need a pattern shift to get some really cold air across the Pole into northern Canada. I'm not seeing such a thing happening this month.

While I'd like to think that this will last until March, February has a reputation of being a snow month across Texas.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_53.png

I bet that map just puts a smile on your face...

[Brent]

why is 384 hours out only correct when it shows warmth? Anyone else notice that

[hriverajr]

def seems to be right more times than the cold version does.. btw I will be very depressed if that or some version of that comes to fruition

[Texas Snowman]

why is 384 hours out only correct when it shows warmth? Anyone else notice that

All of the time, all of the time.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This message is for ntxw but ANYONE can answer this. Got a question. It looks like we fixing to warm up again after sunday. How long u think this warmup will last? Also, do u still think the mjo wont make it to the colder phases this winter? Reason i ask this is because im trying to find a reason to stay optimistic rest of winter before i throw in the towel. Not sure what kind of setup we want to see. I cant get a clear answer on that lol. Last thing is i noticed the warmer water in the 1+2 region of pacific. Does that have any implications for the winter moving forward? Just curious. Thsnks kevin

It's going to warm up next week after this cold. Could be very warm (60s to near 70 for a week) that gets us through mid January. Pattern could change to +PNA look with perhaps the EPO returning negative late month. The MJO is a crapshoot of a forecast, everytime you think it will amplify and move it doesn't really and stick around with the Nina background favored areas (Indonesia). SOI has been reflective of thus. It's far too early to throw in the towel you have Feb and early March to go. The seasons have been displaced the past couple of years. All of the Nino regions have had slow warming since peak in November. It's been pretty much what you would expect with La Nina, sharp quick cold shots with warm ups overtaking the negative anomalies. Mostly drier than normal. It's classic Nina climo that has been going on.

I think the warming in the 1+2 region is the reason for the high off the coast of Mexico. Can someone else chime in on this? This is why we hate that region to be so warm during nino years.

[Texas Snow]

It was, but that event had a strong PV anomaly go over us, this is nothing near that strong. The Feb 2014 event is closer because the upper energy was elongated, sheared somewhat and weaker but it was cold

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114950&start=7240


I remember this because Steve McCauley's stat method did not work out, one of the rare times. Was really cold though...16-17F and snowing that morning. Ahh 2013-2014 what a nice winter that was. Every winter month had something...

I clicked that link and went down the rabbit hole of memories (for 25 pages). I just hope we can see that much excitement over the next few days to squeeze out even the same inch or so. Also keep in mind the Dallas skew-t the Heat Miser posted today. A full column profile like that was a big player for that event.

That was also the "storm" that give us this unforgettable graphic from WFAA:

[Brent]

0z GFS looks to keep most of the snow just across the river in Southern Oklahoma.

Secondary band forms east of DFW Friday Night towards AR/LA

and lol that WFAA graphic

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Check out how cool the indian ocean is now? Is that a La nina trait?

[Brent]

Maybe a dusting? I note still a bit of a hole near DFW

[SnowintheFalls]

0z GFS looks to keep most of the snow just across the river in Southern Oklahoma.

Secondary band forms east of DFW Friday Night towards AR/LA

and lol that WFAA graphic

Looks like the 0z GFS still has light snow in Wichita Falls. It looks like it just struggles to find any extra moisture though.

[Brent]

The consensus seems to be on the 0z models so far the majority of whatever snow falls would be early Friday Morning from Wichita Falls along the Red River towards Paris and then it quickly moves out by lunchtime

CMC looks about the same, a dusting down to DFW barely with an inch right along the immediate Red River areas by Friday morning

A 2nd wave later in the day is very up in the air

[Ralph's Weather]

Like I think I said earlier, being in the East Texas, I'll take my chances with moisture with other factors being good. Though for every bit the moisture increases also does the chance for a more stout warm nose. Ideally the frontal forcing is a bit stronger than forecasted so we can take advantage of limited moisture while keeping the cold air aloft.