Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman22]

0z Canadian

[txtwister78]

Canadian starting to look more "reasonable" with precip types and aligning more with other models.

[Quixotic]

The blocking up north is incredible

The 18z GEFS was crazy.

Some of our most consistent winters as far as cold and snow had that type of blocking. Enjoy it. Usually they start off with a couple of serious storms, off and on minor events and end with a big one. This is just my memory but I’ve been following weather in NTX since 76.

[Gotwood]

txtwister78 any chance if the short range guidance is correct, of aome of this frozen precipitation reaching se texas? , im about 45 miles west of houston in katy

You are going to get some keep positive it’s coming.

[bubba hotep]

The 00z GFS looks good above the surface, but in some areas of DFW, a lot of the snow falls with surface temps right at 32F.

[wxman22]

LOL

[Ntxw]

The 00z GFS looks good above the surface, but in some areas of DFW, a lot of the snow falls with surface temps right at 32F.

Will tradeoff for giant cottonballs.

[Quixotic]

Does that take away from anything we've discussed about these crazy numbers and consistency, or just adding more to share the wealth?

Share wealth, in fact if you have this thing slowing down even more and wraparound, it would snow longer.

Okay so folks have been on here since the beginning of this website, have we ever seen such numbers, model agreement and consistency at this time point within x amount of hours before the event unfolds and actually have it go the way it says or did it just completely bomb out and nothing happened?

I know we like to dream big but my gosh at this point it seems like this is getting to the ridiculousness aspect of the amount of snow potentially we could truly get and we're not crazy for posting these "Clown Maps"

Sure it happens both ways. Feb 2010 storm NWS still had 1-3” up when it started snowing and almost everybody got a foot because the ULL slowed way way down. Kinda like what NTX is saying about this one.

Had one in January 82 that was supposed to give us 6-8” and nothing. Not a flake. Sheared out.

Lately though I find the FWD crew to be pretty accurate of late, not that they have had many chances of late. Haha

[Ntxw]

GFS has another digging SW trough early next week.

[txtwister78]

The 00z GFS looks good above the surface, but in some areas of DFW, a lot of the snow falls with surface temps right at 32F.

Yeah that's why I laugh a little when Bastardi goes full apocalypse with some of his social media hype predictions. High impact event no question for a day, "but 2-3 day shutdown"? Lol. I would expect surface temps to cool initially but then rise a degree or two and hold steady perhaps during most of that.

[SnowintheFalls]

LOL

https://i.ibb.co/rpQq8tp/sn10-acc-imp-us-sc-15.png

Now that would be crippling!

[orangeblood]

The 00z GFS looks good above the surface, but in some areas of DFW, a lot of the snow falls with surface temps right at 32F.

All models are trending colder, GFS has been a little slow to the party lately…not worried about DFW temps, looks like upper 20s for most of it. And if you get the 8-12” amounts becoming more likely coupled with not much of a rebound above freezing Friday or Saturday, Bastardi may be right. Without the plow equipment to handle this, metroplex May grind to an abrupt halt!!

[Ntxw]

Share wealth, in fact if you have this thing slowing down even more and wraparound, it would snow longer.

Okay so folks have been on here since the beginning of this website, have we ever seen such numbers, model agreement and consistency at this time point within x amount of hours before the event unfolds and actually have it go the way it says or did it just completely bomb out and nothing happened?

I know we like to dream big but my gosh at this point it seems like this is getting to the ridiculousness aspect of the amount of snow potentially we could truly get and we're not crazy for posting these "Clown Maps"

Sure it happens both ways. Feb 2010 storm NWS still had 1-3” up when it started snowing and almost everybody got a foot because the ULL slowed way way down. Kinda like what NTX is saying about this one.

Had one in January 82 that was supposed to give us 6-8” and nothing. Not a flake. Sheared out.

Lately though I find the FWD crew to be pretty accurate of late, not that they have had many chances of late. Haha

I remember that storm very vividly. Had checked WPC (might have been called HPC at the time) and had a circle right around the DFW region for 10% of 12" or greater. Brushed it off completely. One of the mets who doesn't post anymore noted how strong the STJ was coming out of the East Pacific. That was the telling sign. The guidance had said we would be too warm right before it started but for some snow as the coastal low would take the qpf. But the phase ejected the jet northeastward. Our friend orangeblood was constantly posting the RAP and how convection kept back building out of the west-southwest and it continued the rest is history.

The initial band the night before had dumped 2" before the main show alone.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 00z GFS looks good above the surface, but in some areas of DFW, a lot of the snow falls with surface temps right at 32F.

All models are trending colder, GFS has been a little slow to the party lately…not worried about DFW temps, looks like upper 20s for most of it

This is it exactly, the gfs is still playing catch up. Compare 2m temps this run to the previous 2 runs and the trend toward colder temps through the event is obvious.

[Gotwood]

The 00z GFS looks good above the surface, but in some areas of DFW, a lot of the snow falls with surface temps right at 32F.

Yeah that's why I laugh a little when Bastardi goes full apocalypse with some of his social media hype predictions. High impact event no question for a day, "but 2-3 day shutdown"? Lol. I would expect surface temps to cool initially but then rise a degree or two and hold steady perhaps during most of that.

You don’t think a foot of snow would shut down DFW for a couple days?

[HockeyTx82]

The 00z GFS looks good above the surface, but in some areas of DFW, a lot of the snow falls with surface temps right at 32F.

Yeah that's why I laugh a little when Bastardi goes full apocalypse with some of his social media hype predictions. High impact event no question for a day, "but 2-3 day shutdown"? Lol. I would expect surface temps to cool initially but then rise a degree or two and hold steady perhaps during most of that.

You don’t think a foot of snow would shut down DFW for a couple days?

Are you factoring in all the recent folks who have moved here too?

[Iceresistance]

0z Canadian

https://i.ibb.co/h8LHXGc/prateptype-imp-us-sc-8.png

https://i.ibb.co/30GdNdp/prateptype-imp-us-sc-9.png

The Ice Storm is REALLY bad


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXntF.png

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Okay so folks have been on here since the beginning of this website, have we ever seen such numbers, model agreement and consistency at this time point within x amount of hours before the event unfolds and actually have it go the way it says or did it just completely bomb out and nothing happened?

I know we like to dream big but my gosh at this point it seems like this is getting to the ridiculousness aspect of the amount of snow potentially we could truly get and we're not crazy for posting these "Clown Maps"

Sure it happens both ways. Feb 2010 storm NWS still had 1-3” up when it started snowing and almost everybody got a foot because the ULL slowed way way down. Kinda like what NTX is saying about this one.

Had one in January 82 that was supposed to give us 6-8” and nothing. Not a flake. Sheared out.

Lately though I find the FWD crew to be pretty accurate of late, not that they have had many chances of late. Haha

I remember that storm very vividly. Had checked WPC (might have been called HPC at the time) and had a circle right around the DFW region for 10% of 12" or greater. Brushed it off completely. One of the mets who doesn't post anymore noted how strong the STJ was coming out of the East Pacific. That was the telling sign. The guidance had said we would be too warm right before it started but for some snow as the coastal low would take the qpf. But the phase ejected the jet northeastward. Our friend orangeblood was constantly posting the RAP and how convection kept back building out of the west-southwest and it continued the rest is history.

I drove right into Plano during the early 1/3rd of that storm. Was wild. Moisture just kept streaming in and in all night. City was like walking around at a ski resort for the rest of the weekend.


Very very good sign that the ULL is phasing earlier. Exactly what you want. DFW is going to get buried by this thing. Also, it's very possible to think that the GFS is on the lower side of snow falling. If its saying 12", its possible some spots get close to 20".

[orangeblood]

The 00z GFS looks good above the surface, but in some areas of DFW, a lot of the snow falls with surface temps right at 32F.

Yeah that's why I laugh a little when Bastardi goes full apocalypse with some of his social media hype predictions. High impact event no question for a day, "but 2-3 day shutdown"? Lol. I would expect surface temps to cool initially but then rise a degree or two and hold steady perhaps during most of that.

You don’t think a foot of snow would shut down DFW for a couple days?

Bastardi knows his stuff…a foot of snow this time of year with low sun angle isn’t going anywhere too quickly. Not many city folks in DFW have the transportation to handle that, it could become a major problem

[HockeyTx82]

Sure it happens both ways. Feb 2010 storm NWS still had 1-3” up when it started snowing and almost everybody got a foot because the ULL slowed way way down. Kinda like what NTX is saying about this one.

Had one in January 82 that was supposed to give us 6-8” and nothing. Not a flake. Sheared out.

Lately though I find the FWD crew to be pretty accurate of late, not that they have had many chances of late. Haha

I remember that storm very vividly. Had checked WPC (might have been called HPC at the time) and had a circle right around the DFW region for 10% of 12" or greater. Brushed it off completely. One of the mets who doesn't post anymore noted how strong the STJ was coming out of the East Pacific. That was the telling sign. The guidance had said we would be too warm right before it started but for some snow as the coastal low would take the qpf. But the phase ejected the jet northeastward. Our friend orangeblood was constantly posting the RAP and how convection kept back building out of the west-southwest and it continued the rest is history.

I drove right into Plano during the early 1/3rd of that storm. Was wild. Moisture just kept streaming in and in all night. City was like walking around at a ski resort for the rest of the weekend.


Very very good sign that the ULL is phasing earlier. Exactly what you want. DFW is going to get buried by this thing. Also, it's very possible to think that the GFS is on the lower side of snow falling. If its saying 12", its possible some spots get close to 20".

What's funny is we recently bought a Kia Telluride, all wheel drive that has a snow mode, and I went ahead and put trail tires on it that also happen to be snow rated. I might have to do some venturing cautiously.