Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

Arctic Airmass are much colder and shallower. With Arctic aimasses we often see temps in Denver warmer than here in TX. This is not good for snow growth. Polar/Canadian airmasses are deeper or higher in the atmosphere in most cases and that is what we would want to see for the entire column to be 'cold enough' to support snow. Simple answer, but hope it helps.

I wouldn't mind missing out on the arctic air masses if it means missing out on the ice. Cold without snow is just brutal. As for the new years eve shortwave, I've been wondering for awhile how something that looks so potent in the 500mb could really come through without much fanfare. If I recall correctly some runs last week were giving parts of Texas quite a storm with this disturbance, too bad it doesn't have the right moisture to work it.

[southerngale]

So anyone want to give an analysis on the 12Z GFS and ECMWF? I can read the models ok, but not well enough to really explain them with any accuracy. heh

[Portastorm]

So anyone want to give an analysis on the 12Z GFS and ECMWF? I can read the models ok, but not well enough to really explain them with any accuracy. heh

SG, I will attempt to ... the 0z GFS and 12z GFS runs are similar in that they show several cold frontal passages for Texas next week but nothing dramatic. They also look dry in that there is not much return moisture. Both the 0z and 12z Euro runs show a sharper, deeper trough over the Eastern US which would "backdoor" colder air into Texas and the airmass would be colder than what the GFS is showing. I'm talking about early next week.

As for the 12z Euro by Wednesday morning of next week, it has a real cold Polar airmass queued up along the leeside of the Rockies and ready to roll south into the Southern Plains.

That is what I'm seeing. I'm sure others here have thoughts.

[southerngale]

Thanks, Portastorm.

How cold is "real cold" on the 12z Euro? It's been pretty chilly lately although I see a little warmup for the next several days. A high of 65° for tomorrow! For this winter, that's a massive heat wave. And then 50's for highs most other days (40's on Mon.) - which is definitely warmer overall.

(lows still in the 30's though, except tonight, but with so many freezes lately, including temps dipping into the 20's, 30's are nothing special. lol)

[srainhoutx]

The problem SG is that no one can tell right now via guidance. There has much waffling via guidance on where the the High pressure will settle. Should it settle into TX we could see some mighty chilly air. But if the fronts are glancing blows off to the E, then not so cold. The front on New Years Eve looks to be Canadian in origin. What happen with the front on Sunday/Monday is still up for speculation via guidance. Looking at AFD's from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, there are hints of another Coastal Low developing Monday through Wednesday. Also another shortwave may pass by on Monday or Tuesday of next week. Very complex pattern ahead for sure and look for changes from day to day IMHO.

[Portastorm]

Thanks, Portastorm.

How cold is "real cold" on the 12z Euro? It's been pretty chilly lately although I see a little warmup for the next several days. A high of 65° for tomorrow! For this winter, that's a massive heat wave. And then 50's for highs most other days (40's on Mon.) - which is definitely warmer overall.

(lows still in the 30's though, except tonight, but with so many freezes lately, including temps dipping into the 20's, 30's are nothing special. lol)

If I'm reading it correctly the Euro is showing low temps in your area of upper 30s Sunday morning, low to mid 30s Monday morning, and lows in the mid to upper 30s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Most days highs probably in the mid to upper 50s with Tuesday being the chilliest day. Yeah ... nothing earth shattering but still somewhat below normal. Mainly dry but Gulf moisture returning early next week.

As srainhoutx has pointed out so well ... guidance is definitely waffling and there is not a consensus at all between all the models. That being said, I wouldn't trust any computer model past 72 hours right now!

[srainhoutx]

You're being generous Portastorm. I was thinking 24 hours with the 'finer details', if that.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: You're being generous Portastorm. I was thinking 24 hours with the 'finer details', if that.

Yeah, you're probably right! I mean, look at how the models didn't even handle yesterday's "event" all that well. We saw less accumulating snow in North Texas than progged and more sleet/snow in central Texas ... and I'm talking about what we saw on the GFS 24 hours out from the actual event.

I know we say this a lot around here but these are complicated times for weather forecasters! Nevertheless, it's a great opportunity for us weather enthusiasts to learn more. I know I have. Spent a good hour last night reading about evaporative cooling and how that works. Yeah I know, call me Mr. Excitement!

[WacoWx]

:uarrow: You're being generous Portastorm. I was thinking 24 hours with the 'finer details', if that.

Yeah, you're probably right! I mean, look at how the models didn't even handle yesterday's "event" all that well. We saw less accumulating snow in North Texas than progged and more sleet/snow in central Texas ... and I'm talking about what we saw on the GFS 24 hours out from the actual event.

I know we say this a lot around here but these are complicated times for weather forecasters! Nevertheless, it's a great opportunity for us weather enthusiasts to learn more. I know I have. Spent a good hour last night reading about evaporative cooling and how that works. Yeah I know, call me Mr. Excitement!

funny you mention evaporative cooling. i took a Weather and Climate class in college and remember a phrase "Latent Cooling" being used a lot. I searched for it the other day and it ended up being synonymous with EC. i too read the wiki article like a complete loser. oh well, at least it wasnt stuff.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: You're being generous Portastorm. I was thinking 24 hours with the 'finer details', if that.

Yeah, you're probably right! I mean, look at how the models didn't even handle yesterday's "event" all that well. We saw less accumulating snow in North Texas than progged and more sleet/snow in central Texas ... and I'm talking about what we saw on the GFS 24 hours out from the actual event.

I know we say this a lot around here but these are complicated times for weather forecasters! Nevertheless, it's a great opportunity for us weather enthusiasts to learn more. I know I have. Spent a good hour last night reading about evaporative cooling and how that works. Yeah I know, call me Mr. Excitement!

funny you mention evaporative cooling. i took a Weather and Climate class in college and remember a phrase "Latent Cooling" being used a lot. I searched for it the other day and it ended up being synonymous with EC. i too read the wiki article like a complete loser. oh well, at least it wasnt stuff.

Pretty funny Waco! Yeah, I saw that as well ... the latent cooling stuff. Interesting eh?

As I tell my wife, jonesing on the weather with my S2K pals keeps me out of trouble.

[WacoWx]

LOL. wish i could say the same

[southerngale]

Thanks, Portastorm.

How cold is "real cold" on the 12z Euro? It's been pretty chilly lately although I see a little warmup for the next several days. A high of 65° for tomorrow! For this winter, that's a massive heat wave. And then 50's for highs most other days (40's on Mon.) - which is definitely warmer overall.

(lows still in the 30's though, except tonight, but with so many freezes lately, including temps dipping into the 20's, 30's are nothing special. lol)

If I'm reading it correctly the Euro is showing low temps in your area of upper 30s Sunday morning, low to mid 30s Monday morning, and lows in the mid to upper 30s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Most days highs probably in the mid to upper 50s with Tuesday being the chilliest day. Yeah ... nothing earth shattering but still somewhat below normal. Mainly dry but Gulf moisture returning early next week.

As srainhoutx has pointed out so well ... guidance is definitely waffling and there is not a consensus at all between all the models. That being said, I wouldn't trust any computer model past 72 hours right now!

Thanks Portastorm and srainhoutx.

Ok, cool. That's the same as this week's weather. I'm waiting for that winter wonderland to appear, with highs in the low 30's to keep the snow around for a while.

hehe... yeah, right. I know.

[Ntxw]

I think we need to watch this shortwave coming through tomorrow\Friday. It looks very impressive at the 500mb level. Seems to be tracking further south also. Given the model problems.

[iorange55]

I think we need to watch this shortwave coming through tomorrow\Friday. It looks very impressive at the 500mb level. Seems to be tracking further south also. Given the model problems.

Yeah I mentioned that last night, and it looks even more impressive tonight than last. Just a matter of moisture and timing. If it goes out too quick then it'll just be rain, and if it doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with it'll just be sprinkles and flurries.


But if it's stronger, and slower to move out then might actually see some sort of frozen stuff from it.

[srainhoutx]

Some data suggests that the 500mb low will close off in TX. Bears watching. I see Central N MX is seeing much heavier snow than forecast.

[Ntxw]

Some data suggests that the 500mb low will close off in TX. Bears watching. I see Central N MX is seeing much heavier snow than forecast.

Does that give it a better chance to slow down and draw in moisture?

[Ntxw]

Bit far out but wow fun to look at. 0z gfs 204 hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_204s.gif

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Bit far out but wow fun to look at. 0z gfs 204 hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_204s.gif

I saw that. If you notice, the buildup of the air starts in prime area for memorable Arctic mischeif in Texas. Bears watch!

[DentonGal]

Does anyone use Accuweather Pro? I'm just wondering if it's worth the annual fee. So far, I'm quite content riding on the coat tails of the "pro's" on this forum; however, before I stumbled on the forum, I was considering subscribing.

[iorange55]

GFS 06z just fun to look at, but if it came true this would be what it'd look like for Dallas



Next Wednesday through early Thursday Morning temps would be dropping from the 30s to 20s with snow


Thursday it'd drop into the teens with a strong northwest wind


Friday, and Saturday not getting out of the teens, and maybe lows down to 3 on Friday

Then Sunday, Monday highs in the upper 20s lows in the teens, and wouldn't make it above freezing till next Tuesday, so basically a week almost well below freezing, with snow on the ground. My guess would be 3-6 inches.


This will change, but it's as early as a week away, so even though it most likely won't be this extreme we certainly might see something mid-to late next week.