Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Rgv20]

Its currently 41 with moderate rain in my neck of the woods, at 10:30AM I have to step out of the office for an appraisal on a house that we just finished. Who schedules an appraisal in this kind of weather?!?!

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IF YOU GET DOWN ON RAINY DAYS AND MONDAYS TODAY IS YOUR DAY.
HOWEVER...LAWNS AND GARDENS AND OTHER NEEDY WATER RESOURCES WILL
JUMP FOR JOY. POTENT 500MB LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IS
TAPPING INTO ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WITH A
EXTREMELY STRONG 120+ KNOT JET EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS PUSHING THAT MOISTURE RIGHT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
UPPER JET TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OF THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
WILL COMBINE PROVIDING THE NEEDED SURFACE LOW LEVEL FORCING. THIS
SPELLS OUT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
IN ADDITION...TO THE RAIN THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO THE VALLEY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO 40S TODAY
AND STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 TUESDAY.

[CaptinCrunch]

Interesting meteogram for Dallas-Ft. Worth area for the 2nd week of January.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx0zdec30.gif

I like this one

[dhweather]

Interesting meteogram for Dallas-Ft. Worth area for the 2nd week of January.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx0zdec30.gif

Like you and I say, if it's THAT cold, it BETTER snow. Looks like a chance of that happening. Gotta wait 4-5 days before I get my hopes up. At least the models aren't as dull and depressing as they were Fri-Sat.

[Portastorm]

Interesting to note that as the 12z GFS is rolling in, one can see this weekend's front appears stronger and more in line with the 0z Euro scenario. Appears we'll be looking at a 1-2 punch as srainhoutx noted earlier.

[TheProfessor]

Interesting meteogram for Dallas-Ft. Worth area for the 2nd week of January.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx0zdec30.gif

I like this one

I like it too but I wouldn't mind a little bit more precipitation.

[Portastorm]

Interesting to note that as the 12z GFS is rolling in, one can see this weekend's front appears stronger and more in line with the 0z Euro scenario. Appears we'll be looking at a 1-2 punch as srainhoutx noted earlier.

Ppfffttt ... beyond this coming weekend, this 12z GFS run has little agreement with its 0z run just 12 hours earlier.

Reminder note to self: anything beyond 120 hours should be taken with a grain of salt.

[hriverajr]

Don't drive yourself mad Portastorm..hehe. I will believe it when I see the cold air and high pressure in place beginning its move down the lee side of the Rockies.

[Kennethb]

Agree. As many of you might recall 2-3 years ago we had GFS and Euro concurrence on a 1060+ or so high that came into the 6-7 day range. Close enough the NWS was making notes, only to have the arctic outbreak not appear. It takes a lot of physics and energy to get that heavy, thick air to make the journey south. Perhaps this is the year. At least we now have something to monitor. Here's to snow, ice and cold.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to note that as the 12z GFS is rolling in, one can see this weekend's front appears stronger and more in line with the 0z Euro scenario. Appears we'll be looking at a 1-2 punch as srainhoutx noted earlier.

Ppfffttt ... beyond this coming weekend, this 12z GFS run has little agreement with its 0z run just 12 hours earlier.

Reminder note to self: anything beyond 120 hours should be taken with a grain of salt.

Repeat after me...ensembles, ensembles, ensembles...

The -EPO pattern as well as the 2nd day the AO indices have dipped into the negative range suggests we are on track for a noteworthy period. What is interesting are the coldest anomalies are located in North America ~vs~ Europe. In other words, the coldest air across the Northern Hemisphere are in our neighborhood and that does not look to change anytime soon. As the EPO trends more negative and heights build near the Gulf of Alaska, the blocking -AO should force the Polar Vortex SW of Hudson Bay and build the 1050mb to 1060mb high pressure cells across Eastern Alaska and the NW Territories of Canada. Those areas being our source regions, monitoring the daily temperatures will prove useful as to how strong and how cold we may get across our Region.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z Ensemble mean sets up a gorgeous block locking in the cold air over North America.

[Portastorm]

12z Euro drives Arctic front hard into Texas on Saturday night into Sunday. Looks like a helluva storm for the South Plains and Panhandle by Saturday night.

This weekend is looking more and more interesting.

[Snowman67]

I know the potential arctic air event is still a ways out. I will be in Orlando (57 would probably gladly take my place) from Jan 6th -10th (actually coming back the afternoon/evening of 1/10). Based on current model runs, when would the front most likely get into SE Texas (I am just NW of the Houston area)?

It would be horrible for me to be in muggy Florida, while an arctic blast comes through back home. Hopefully if the front does come to fruition, it will coincide with my return...

Edit - Just read Porta's post above mine. Maybe I will get in on the fun before I leave....

[perk]

Portastorm was any moisture on that model run.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro has polar vortex in Northern Indiana on 1/6 via Ryan Maue twitter.

[srainhoutx]

Portastorm was any moisture on that model run.

There is as the front drops S across Texas.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Am I reading these right... basically the difference between the GFS and Euro is the PV drops into No Missouri/Iowa on the GFS and in the Euro it goes further east into IN/OH.

Man, if the GFS verified, that could send the Arctic crashing down onto our heads. That 540dm line would reach well into our area.

[perk]

Portastorm was any moisture on that model run.

There is as the front drops S across Texas.

Thanks srainhoutx.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

You guys, you guys, you guys.... I'm starting to get that tingle tangle down my leg about this event.

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[perk]

You guys, you guys, you guys.... I'm starting to get that tingle tangle down my leg about this event.

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

As a fellow forum member I'd advise you to wait a few days.

[gboudx]

Steve McCauleys Stat Method is not supporting any wintry weather for DFW this weekend or next week according to his FB page.

Here's an excerpt from his page. Not all discussion is included.

Recently, the long-range range computer models - particularly the European and American Models - have been hitting the rain/ice/snow chances pretty hard for this coming Sunday and Monday. BUT ... it should be pointed out that some of these same models also predicted an ice storm on Christmas Day as well as a widespread heavy rain and thunderstorm event for us on New Year's Day! Obviously, neither of these did or will happen, so I wouldn't get too overly concerned about these latest predictions.

With computer model data readily available for anyone to see on the Internet, it has become commonplace for rumors to fly the INSTANT one of the models predicts a major event. But it should be made clear that this is not how accurate forecasts are made. It does not take much skill to "rip and read" what a computer model says will happen. The skill comes in when you can apply your knowledge of atmospheric physics to assess whether what a computer model says will happen will indeed occur.

This is the premise behind the Stat Method. The SM rejected the forecast of ice on Christmas, and it did not accept the heavy rain prediction for New Year's Day and has done so for the past 10 days (otherwise I would have been busy making graphics with lots of bold colors!). And for all the snow fans out there, I have to report that the SM continues to reject the "major winter storm" scenario for north Texas on January 5 - 6.