Texas Winter 2014-2015

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#2881 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:09 pm

EWX is going to upgrade the Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for portions of the Hill Country. Icing conditions already reported out near Johnson City/Fredericksburg.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2882 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:19 pm

Wet bulbing here in far NW Austin saw the temperature drop from 35.9 to 32.7 over the last hour or so...
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2883 Postby SouthernMet » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:24 pm

Last second call by EWX...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
710 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

.SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BY MIDNIGHT. MAINLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT A FEW AREAS OF THE HILL COUNTRY HAVE
ALREADY CHANGED OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
MAINLY ELEVATED SURFACES SHOULD BE IMPACTED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...THE RAIN
CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE...WITH FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING ON SOLID SURFACES
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT REACH ABOVE FREEZING OR LONG ENOUGH TO MELT THE ACCUMULATED
ICE. THUS THE THREAT FOR ICY ROADS COULD EXTEND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. MOST OF THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL INTO A RANGE
FROM 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH. HOWEVER...A FEW SLEET SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/2 INCH.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE BRACKETTVILLE...SAN ANTONIO...AUSTIN AND BASTROP AREAS
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. SOME LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MAINLY ELEVATED SURFACES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT.

TXZ171-172-183>190-101800-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150110T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0001.150110T0110Z-150111T0600Z/
LLANO-BURNET-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-
KENDALL-BLANCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO
710 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WINTER STORM WARNING REPLACES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL ACCUMULATE ON MANY
ELEVATED SURFACES AND ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS/EDWARDS
PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT.
MANY NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES A SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
RANGE FROM 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
BANDS OF SLEET THAT COULD ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/2 INCH
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS
WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL PROBLEMS AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO
LIFE AND PROPERTY.
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#2884 Postby CentralTxAggie » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:31 pm

Here in south Austin, 35 T and 28 DP. Light rain falling, no sleet noted so far.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2885 Postby TexasF6 » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:32 pm

32*F @LHWXC in NW Austin! Wet bulbin' I reckon. I have been waiting for this allllll last night and today. #TeamNoLucy :grr: :grr: :grr:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2886 Postby Shoshana » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:38 pm

33 here now....and drizzle
Last edited by Shoshana on Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2887 Postby ndale » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:46 pm

Shoshana wrote:33 here now....

Unless I am reading the radar wrong it looks like we may have a temporary break in precip which may be good since temps are nearing the freeze mark. EWX indicated they thought freezing temps in Austin would be around midnight but reading peoples post I think it may be sooner. My temp is around 34 right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2888 Postby Shoshana » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:49 pm

ndale wrote:
Shoshana wrote:33 here now....

Unless I am reading the radar wrong it looks like we may have a temporary break in precip which may be good since temps are nearing the freeze mark. EWX indicated they thought freezing temps in Austin would be around midnight but reading peoples post I think it may be sooner. My temp is around 34 right now.


We're getting some drizzle here now. Can't tell if it's liquid or frozen though
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2889 Postby SouthernMet » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:52 pm

I am now seeing the potential* of .25"+ of ice before this is all said and done, per the latest sref run. With a brief window for sleet after 3am.
(32.8 here in NE Austin)

Told yall this was going to be a fun night/morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2890 Postby ndale » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:56 pm

SouthernMet wrote:I am now seeing the potential* of .25"+ of ice before this is all said and done, per the latest sref run. With a brief window for sleet after 3am.
(32.8 here in NE Austin)

Told yall this was going to be a fun night/morning.

Are you seeing that amount for the Austin area or the hill country?
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2891 Postby SouthernMet » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:59 pm

ndale wrote:
SouthernMet wrote:I am now seeing the potential* of .25"+ of ice before this is all said and done, per the latest sref run. With a brief window for sleet after 3am.
(32.8 here in NE Austin)

Told yall this was going to be a fun night/morning.

Are you seeing that amount for the Austin area or the hill country?


Right now EWX is calling for that for Hill Country, but per latest sref, I would include Austin proper. 00z data should come in the next hour or so and that might give us a better idea qpf wise, but models always struggle with these systems out of mexico.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2892 Postby SouthernMet » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:06 pm

00z nam struggling with temps currently, but still continues the trend of keeping temps a little warmer than progged earlier...
But, it wants to give the Austin area .25" of precip.
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#2893 Postby dhweather » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:27 pm

38.7 in Heath, no precip, dew point is 14, so I highly doubt north Texas, north of I-20, sees any precip tonight or tomorrow, maybe by tomorrow night into Sunday, but I think it will be light, maybe .1 , .2 if we are lucky.
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#2894 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:28 pm

The PWC is reporting 32.5 degrees in southwest Travis County.
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Re:

#2895 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:33 pm

dhweather wrote:38.7 in Heath, no precip, dew point is 14, so I highly doubt north Texas, north of I-20, sees any precip tonight or tomorrow, maybe by tomorrow night into Sunday, but I think it will be light, maybe .1 , .2 if we are lucky.


Not if you look at the latest NAM, gets really aggressive with QPF along the I-35 corridor. 1/2-1 inch totals. Sometimes the NAM does get carried away but this system is coming from an area where they are not modeled well, as has been said numerous times on here, I wouldn't bet on the dry side of these Subtropical Systems
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#2896 Postby ndale » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:38 pm

EWX getting reports of ice on mailboxes in Anderson Mill area in Austin.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2897 Postby JDawg512 » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:39 pm

Still a bit above freezing here on the southside just a couple of blocks from South Austin Hospital, currently reading 34° dew point is 29°
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#2898 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:44 pm

34.2 here with a dewpoint of 26.3 (8:45pm).
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2899 Postby SouthernMet » Fri Jan 09, 2015 10:21 pm

NWS will now upgrade Austin to a Winter Storm Warning for greater icing concerns... This is almost as late of a warning you can get
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2900 Postby Shoshana » Fri Jan 09, 2015 10:23 pm

SouthernMet wrote:NWS will now upgrade Austin to a Winter Storm Warning for greater icing concerns... This is almost as late of a warning you can get


Just saw the warning. Not actually sure who they're warning at this point
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