Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

Euro remains consistent. Panhandle and Oklahoma streak of snow and a little bit of precip in near freezing air down mostly west of I-35 in Austin. Then Friday evening it has the Panhandle stuff coming out (this is a little different than previous runs) and snows in southern Oklahoma and Red River areas again before drying out. Everyone else mostly dry. East and southeast Texas is light rain, maybe sleet pellets mixed in. Then it's cold for everybody.

[TheProfessor]

Man I should take a trip to the California Mountains.

[TexasF6]

ALREADY SEEING WINTER PRECIP RETURNS ON INTELLICAST RADAR!!!!!!!

[gpsnowman]

ALREADY SEEING WINTER PRECIP RETURNS ON INTELLICAST RADAR!!!!!!!

Just saw that. Some snow returns south of Fort Worth near Crowley at the moment. Wonder if it is even hitting the ground.

[Portastorm]

Friday looks to be a close call here in the Austin area IF the Euro is right. It develops some rather robust drizzle as overrunning takes hold in the skies above. Two nights ago the 0z Euro showed this as did yesterday's 12z albeit a bit lighter on QPF. Surface temps right now appear to be a few degrees too warm for any freezing precip. But if the Euro is too warm by a few degrees we could have some trouble. Best bet for any wintry mischief appears to be in patchy spots in the Hill Country.

The GFS and NAM show none of this. I'll be eager later this morning to see the Tech WRF model and what it shows. More times than not this is an excellent hi-res, short range model for Texas weather.

Oh, and I would encourage anyone in my area to read the morning AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio. They do a nice job of covering this.

[Ralph's Weather]

Nothing really has changed in my thinking on the late week event. Just going for moisture. Friday will start with some snow in the Panhandle and along the Red River with drizzle, and possibly frozen, further south. The best chance for this to turn into a decent event for someone in North Texas is if there is some convection involved which we won't know until very close to the event. Then Friday afternoon into the Saturday morning a wave will cross over NE Texas bringing very light snow to areas east of the I-35 and north of Lufkin, maybe someone will get lucky with a couple inches around Marshall or so.

[wxman57]

The atmosphere looks right for some light sleet in the Austin area on Friday, Portastorm. Snow appears unlikely, given the predicted above-freezing air above about 3000 ft. Anything falling in the D-FW area on Friday would be snow. It'll be quite cold aloft, but precip would be light. Enjoy your snow flurries up there on Friday. Winter ends early next week (for a while, anyway).

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Initial surge of cold air has arrived overnight…much stronger surge will arrive late Thursday.

Frontal boundary has progressed well offshore overnight with cold air advection having lowered temperatures into the 40’s across the area. Low level clouds trapped under the frontal inversion have been advecting across the region. Current cloud deck is advancing SSW/SW along roughly I-45 with mainly clear conditions to the west. NAM and short term models show this deck covering much of SE TX by late morning and this should prevent temperatures from warming much out of the 50’s today. However clouds or lack of them this time of year can make for large temperature busts…and if the skies scatter out then temperatures would easily rise into the 60’s.

Surface high moves eastward allowing a return of southerly winds on Thursday which will help bump temperatures back into the mid 60’s before the bottom falls out Thursday night. Moisture return on Thursday ahead of the secondary arctic surge looks to be just enough for a few light showers mainly along and south of US 59.

Secondary arctic boundary will move across the area late Thursday with temperatures tumbling on Friday. Will lower temperatures into the mid 30’s during the day on Friday north of HWY 105 and near 40 N of US 59 under strong cold air advection. An upper level short wave will drop SE across OK/N TX Friday and help induce a weak coastal low near Brownsville which will move NE Friday into Friday night. NAM and GFS soundings show a low level saturated layer with temperatures within this layer at or below freezing by Friday evening. Surface dewpoints fall into the upper 20’s from CLL to Lake Livingston by mid afternoon which would support the potential for wet bulb cooling of mid 30 degree surface temperatures toward freezing. Main question is just how much moisture will be available and if the atmosphere will be moist enough to produce precipitation.

Will go with light rain on Friday and Friday evening south of HWY 105 and a light rain/sleet mixture north of HWY 105…could probably add light freezing rain from College Station to Lake Livingston, but not confident enough yet that the surface temperature will reach freezing before the rain ends. I am a little worried that the models may not be handling the cold air correctly since they have been trending colder with each run and this could put some of those northern areas near the critical freezing threshold earlier on Friday. For now not expecting any impacts from any freezing/frozen precipitation if any actually occurs.

Very cold conditions will continue through the entire weekend with lows likely into the 20’s N of I-10 on Saturday morning and into the 20’s most areas Sunday morning with highs on Saturday in the low to mid 40’s and upper 40’s on Sunday.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Is it just me or did this front come through a bit stronger than expected down here in Austin. I saw it get down to 32 early this morning up here in NW Austin.

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[TexasSam]

I was just outside, and saw something strange. The low clouds are moving North to South, and the high clouds are moving west to east. If it were Summer I would say Tornado weather.

[Ntxw]

DFW's temperature has fallen all day yesterday and through this morning. That's some good cold air advection to fight the diurnal cycle

[CaptinCrunch]

I drove in to work from southern Tarrant Co and I can tell you that nothing is falling from the sky....lol. As for this cold spell enjoy it, it will be near 70 by Wednesday of next week, and nothing really exciting to talk about till maybe around mid month.

[DonWrk]

Surprised at the warmth for next week. Hard to get pumped for a chance of snow when almost 70's are coming!

[Theepicman116]

Y'all in Lubbock are some lucky dogs! On the Accuweather radar it's showing you guys are getting ice. At least it's some type of winter precip

[Snowman67]

Ended up a couple of degrees cooler than forecasted here in Tomball. Since Wxman57 decided not to help bring us some winter weather down here, it is my sincere hope that the freeze line reaches his house sometime this weekend

[Portastorm]

The atmosphere looks right for some light sleet in the Austin area on Friday, Portastorm. Snow appears unlikely, given the predicted above-freezing air above about 3000 ft. Anything falling in the D-FW area on Friday would be snow. It'll be quite cold aloft, but precip would be light. Enjoy your snow flurries up there on Friday. Winter ends early next week (for a while, anyway).

I would take that ... considering it's been SIX YEARS since any sleet or snow has fallen here, I'd take about anything at this point. Anything but warm weather, that is.

Thank you for the extended analysis, wxman57. I have no expectation whatsoever of snow this time around so the "unlikely" prognosis doesn't bother me.

[Portastorm]

Is it just me or did this front come through a bit stronger than expected down here in Austin. I saw it get down to 32 early this morning up here in NW Austin.

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Low 30s? Yeah, that is colder than forecast. EWX had most of Travis County progged for upper 30s for lows. The LCRA Hydromet shows lows in the mid 30s in the NW part of the county. Coldest it shows is a 33 about 1 mile east/southeast of Lago Vista. Longhornmaniac8, you may have the coldest temp in the county!

[Ntxw]

Surprised at the warmth for next week. Hard to get pumped for a chance of snow when almost 70's are coming!

It will be easier to deal with (and go by mentally quicker) if we get some snow on Friday . Late Euro has a surging arctic front behind the warmth as the -EPO/-WPO is dumping very cold air into Canada. It's certainly possible under it's own weight may overpower it anyway. Kind of like the week before Christmas when the pressures were hardly that high but the temp gradient was so strong and cold won.

[texas1836]

Surprised at the warmth for next week. Hard to get pumped for a chance of snow when almost 70's are coming!

It will be easier to deal with (and go by mentally quicker) if we get some snow on Friday . Late Euro has a surging arctic front behind the warmth as the -EPO/-WPO is dumping very cold air into Canada. It's certainly possible under it's own weight may overpower it anyway. Kind of like the week before Christmas when the pressures were hardly that high but the temp gradient was so strong and cold won.

At least there's future hope.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Surprised at the warmth for next week. Hard to get pumped for a chance of snow when almost 70's are coming!

It will be easier to deal with (and go by mentally quicker) if we get some snow on Friday . Late Euro has a surging arctic front behind the warmth as the -EPO/-WPO is dumping very cold air into Canada. It's certainly possible under it's own weight may overpower it anyway. Kind of like the week before Christmas when the pressures were hardly that high but the temp gradient was so strong and cold won.

At least there's future hope.

Ridge is still near Alaska in 10 days on the euro. Weakening but still there!