Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

Ok, guys, I managed to schedule another Arctic front around New Year's. It gets pretty cold across Texas after all the snow ends. Seriously, I think some cold-mongerer has hacked the GFS...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_47.png

I'm sure you would love a map like that in August with the entire state in the 100's and large pockets pushing 110.

Me? No, I hate hot weather. Give me mid 30s and rain/sleet any day over a hot July day.

I thought they fixed your hacked account

[wxman57]

18Z GFS is coming in. The three tumblers are spinning. What will they stop at this time? (slot machine reference) I'm just sitting here laughing at the 12Z GFS forecast of such extreme cold late December and early January. 6 degrees in Biloxi, MS on the 3rd?

[Brent]

FWD AFD

The upper trough will gradually approach West Texas on Friday,
enhancing the moisture flux and lift above the frontal layer.
Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will light up the
radar much of the day Friday. The latest CMC run maintains a
deeper trough and a slower evolution, but the GFS/ECMWF consensus
is progressive enough to move the remaining precipitation into
East Texas by the daylight hours Saturday morning. A rain/snow mix
or a complete transition to snow could occur in our northwestern
zones before the precipitation ends there. At this time, it
appears surface temperatures above freezing should preclude any
significant impacts to travel, but if the slower solution
verifies, this may need to be adjusted. Those with travel plans
this weekend, particularly to areas north and northwest of the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, should keep abreast of the forecast.

The remainder of the holiday weekend will be unseasonably cold. A
reinforcing shot of arctic air may make Christmas Eve (Sunday) the
coldest day so far this season. Any potential for a white
Christmas looks no closer than Kansas and into the Ozarks. For
North and Central Texas, Christmas Day will be cold and dry but
with plenty of sunshine. A surge of moisture may bring
precipitation chances back during the middle of next week. The
next surge of cold air may pose some winter weather concerns
Wednesday night into Thursday next week.

[NotSparta]

GFS still irks me about what happened today. This model has a progressive issue it's not even funny. Friday's earlier day runs had 0.00 whopping inches of rain. Daily record of nearly 3" today.

I'm not even giving it much weight and looking at it last in the model suites.

Heh, that's what I've been doing in the WPac.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/942067433283686401

It bombs every other thunderstorm complex to sub 900mb

[Brent]

next week's storm is really warm on the GFS lol rain into Kansas

DFW In the mid 70s Thursday, maybe we can get severe weather

Friday cold air starts pouring in but most of the precip is over when it finally gets cold enough

[Texas Snow]

next week's storm is really warm on the GFS lol rain into Kansas

DFW In the mid 70s Thursday, maybe we can get severe weather

Friday cold air starts pouring in

Haven't checked a model all day as I've been out and about. Where is the NWS coming up with this then?

The
next surge of cold air may pose some winter weather concerns
Wednesday night into Thursday next week.

[Texas Snowman]

next week's storm is really warm on the GFS lol rain into Kansas

DFW In the mid 70s Thursday, maybe we can get severe weather

Friday cold air starts pouring in

Haven't checked a model all day as I've been out and about. Where is the NWS coming up with this then?

The
next surge of cold air may pose some winter weather concerns
Wednesday night into Thursday next week.

Where do they come up with something?

I'd say that the NWS doesn't get downright giddy or depressed with every single model run that comes in different.

They look at the current trends, examine local climatology, observe the pattern(s) and do something that some folks call weather forecasting.

[Texas Snow]

LOL I get that. Just curious what model, pattern, etc they may be looking at if all the models (from what I have read on here so far) are warmer next week. Just curious where I should start my search now that I have a little time to model hop.

[Brent]

LOL I get that. Just curious what model, pattern, etc they may be looking at if all the models (from what I have read on here so far) are warmer next week. Just curious where I should start my search now that I have a little time to model hop.

the Euro had snow in Dallas on Friday after the warm part of the storm(low 60s). It looks like, at least right now, the cold air would flood in on the backside the difference is how far we have to fall to get cold enough

Its a long way out though, and the GFS has been erratic

[Texas Snow]

Right but they are going with Wednesday/Thursday so that is where my confusion lies. Maybe I'll hop into the ensembles later this evening and see if I can find support. Those folks are much too smart to just throw this out there, so they have got some great support somewhere.

[aggiecutter]

It is like a I hacked into the CPC and drew these maps. These guys actually base their decisions off analogs and the teleconnections, not just various model runs. Deal with it playa, it is coming.





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

[Brent]

Right but they are going with Wednesday/Thursday so that is where my confusion lies. Maybe I'll hop into the ensembles later this evening and see if I can find support. Those folks are much too smart to just throw this out there, so they have got some great support somewhere.

the ensembles have definitely been liking that timeframe for awhile now, the globals could just be lost(wouldnt be the first time lol)

[bubba hotep]

I've been big on the teleconnections pointing towards cold but the WPO and EPO are now not looking as negative and are looking to rebound much faster than just a couple of days ago. That could always trend back the other way but they don't look nearly as good as they did just on Monday.

[somethingfunny]

The siren call of the models.

NWS FW has a note about the monumental snowstorm of December 20-21, 1929. Hillsboro got 26" in 24 hours (still a TX record), accompanied by thunder and lightening.
The snowtrack was just south of DFW, which received a mere trace. 14"+ from Hamilton to Athens. Waco 13".

Did it snow any in Austin?

[hamburgerman7070]

Bubba hotep, in all honesty, how do you see that system on the Euro playing out based on the pattern moving forward? I'm in northeast Arkansas.

[Brent]

NBC 5 mentioned a changeover to snow possible in Sherman Friday Night

Okay, were getting closer...

[missygirl810]

NBC 5 mentioned a changeover to snow possible in Sherman Friday Night

Okay, were getting closer...

Keep coming about a hour south, and I will be so excited lol.

[Texas Snow]

NBC 5 mentioned a changeover to snow possible in Sherman Friday Night

Okay, were getting closer...

Just a little colder than predicted and maybe we'll at least get to see something.

They also mentioned (on the 5:00 at least) a 40% chance wintry mix next Friday. Ch 8 did the same, although it wasn't on the graphic, she just said chance wintry mix.

[wxman57]

Though I was quite bullish toward the snow event earlier this month, it just doesn't look like snow into DFW for this event. GFS sounding has temps near 50 degrees a few thousand feet up. In fact, above-freezing temperatures all the way up to about 12,000 ft at 00Z Saturday (Friday evening) as the precip ends. 12k NAM is colder, but it still has above-freezing temps from the surface up to about 8000 ft. as the precip ends. I wouldn't count on anything in the DFW area.

[Ralph's Weather]

The snow is going to fall under the closed low. Thats the only way I see temps cold enough through the column. Now I do forsee the surface to be a tad cooler than modeled, but not by a huge amount. For DFW snow, we have to hope for thw low to stay closed or mostly closed and for it to track along I20. I believe that is possible maybe even likely, but I would prefer to at least see the NAM continue to trend towards the CMC. I am all but ignoring the op GFS at this point and for the foreseeable future.