Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

For entertainment purposes only...12Z Crazy Canadian 1 week from now

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021020512/gem_T2m_scus_29.png

Even with the usual modification that's still a cold run.

Considering even the warm bias GFS is BRRR. That's a lot of runs in the bank so far with coldest air in years.

[InfernoFlameCat]

:uarrow: Maybe its an omen on what's to come next week...

Or maybe it is not because new runs all show below freezing for Houston TX
Houston can only escape cold for so long.

[orangeblood]

Another big change from the 12Z GFS Ensembles...they are much quicker with the Arctic Front on Tuesday!


Run to Run change for Next Tuesday - massive change for inside 120 hrs and just reiterates how difficult shallow arctic airmasses are to forecast

[Ntxw]

Another big change from the 12Z GFS Ensembles...they are much quicker with the Arctic Front on Tuesday!


Run to Run change for Next Tuesday - massive change for inside 120 hrs and just reiterates how difficult shallow arctic airmasses are to forecast
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_dprog/1612526400/1612904400-vJzHzUytDfI.png

NAM swings the arctic through the northwestern half of North Texas Monday evening, faster than the trending GFS OP. I wouldn't be surprised of timing speeds up.

Cannot deny what is now sitting in Central Canada. Below is in Celsius.

[Haris]

GFS trend of the front yesterday....

Nuff Said!

Edit: GIF not working. But reality was 200 miles S

[bubba hotep]

12z UKMET is primed at 144 with what is likely a massive winter storm getting cranked up.

[bubba hotep]

It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro does because the 00z is pretty far off from the 12z GFS & CMC.

12z GFS shows a TPV moving into the GL with an associated massive cold pool (see Ntxw post above)



12z CMC is an McFarland on steroids! Huge Omega block with Hudson Bay low complex extending into the SW US. This would rival all-time record cold outbreaks.



Then the 00z Euro...

[orangeblood]

12z UKMET is primed at 144 with what is likely a massive winter storm getting cranked up.

CMC now forecasting this outbreak to be a long duration event...7 plus days, has another 1055 Arctic HP coming into Montana day 9-10

[Cerlin]

No reason to think this can’t last all of February

[WinterMax]

It seems very strange, sleeting here in Ville Platte La, at 48 degrees.

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/MVFrnCF/gfs-T2m-us-fh12-trend-1.gif [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/pWrmLV2/gfs-T2m-us-1.png [/url]

GFS trend of the front yesterday....

Nuff Said!

Edit: GIF not working. But reality was 200 miles S

The GIF needs to be uploaded to Imgur or Gifyu or it will not run here.

[harp]

It seems very strange, sleeting here in Ville Platte La, at 48 degrees.

Really? What is your dew point?

[WinterMax]

No reason to think this can’t last all of February

Heavy sleet, with snow flakes mixing in here, at 47 degrees, unbelievable

[Iceresistance]

It seems very strange, sleeting here in Ville Platte La, at 48 degrees.

It is very strange, I've once had sleet at 40°F while in School.

[WinterMax]

It seems very strange, sleeting here in Ville Platte La, at 48 degrees.

Really? What is your dew point?

I don't know, I'm in my car

[Haris]

Why is the front stalled now on the euro?

[Iceresistance]

Heavy sleet, with snow flakes mixing in here, at 47 degrees, unbelievable

That can't be real! There was once snow in Yellowknife at 53°F

[WinterMax]

It seems very strange, sleeting here in Ville Platte La, at 48 degrees.

It is very strange, I've once had sleet at 40°F while in School.

Dew point 36

[Haris]

God that was a curveball lol

[Iceresistance]

It seems very strange, sleeting here in Ville Platte La, at 48 degrees.

It is very strange, I've once had sleet at 40°F while in School.

Dew point 36

Must be below 32°F all the way to the surface it seems, can I see photos?