Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

You folks in N TX may want to keep an eye on the shortwave/trough in N MX. Appears to be stronger and digging a bit further S than guidance suggested. Perhaps a little New Years Eve surprise in the making.

[iorange55]

You folks in N TX may want to keep an eye on the shortwave/trough in N MX. Appears to be stronger and digging a bit further S than guidance suggested. Perhaps a little New Years Eve surprise in the making.

I've got my fingers crossed

[Portastorm]

Interesting, ALL of the medium-range models are back in agreement -- like there were two days ago -- on the next major winter weather event for Texas. It looks like the Mother Lode of Arctic Air will be dumped into Texas one week from today. While the GFS suggests we end up more on the backside of this airmass ... both the Euro and Canadian have it headed straight towards us!

And if that isn't enough for ya, the STJ stays noisy and all three models show wintry precip for much of the state late next week. Given that we have such unusual consensus and saw it two days ago as well, I'm thinking we have a decent shot at this actually happening!

[srainhoutx]

Interesting, ALL of the medium-range models are back in agreement -- like there were two days ago -- on the next major winter weather event for Texas. It looks like the Mother Lode of Arctic Air will be dumped into Texas one week from today. While the GFS suggests we end up more on the backside of this airmass ... both the Euro and Canadian have it headed straight towards us!

And if that isn't enough for ya, the STJ stays noisy and all three models show wintry precip for much of the state late next week. Given that we have such unusual consensus and saw it two days ago as well, I'm thinking we have a decent shot at this actually happening!

Hmmm...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

[Ntxw]

Possible 3 snow events in 1 week's time? What is this Minnesota?!

[vbhoutex]

Interesting, ALL of the medium-range models are back in agreement -- like there were two days ago -- on the next major winter weather event for Texas. It looks like the Mother Lode of Arctic Air will be dumped into Texas one week from today. While the GFS suggests we end up more on the backside of this airmass ... both the Euro and Canadian have it headed straight towards us!

And if that isn't enough for ya, the STJ stays noisy and all three models show wintry precip for much of the state late next week. Given that we have such unusual consensus and saw it two days ago as well, I'm thinking we have a decent shot at this actually happening!

As we get closer in it definitely becomes more of a possibility. I'm not about to say we will get the storm of all storms or anything like that, but this type of agreement among the models is becoming a familiar pattern and that pattern will usually bear fruit. The temps being shown just make my bones shiver , much less my body(which quivers on its own anyway ). If the precip. comes to pass that would be even more "bonus" . The biggest problem with these polar dumps though is that if they do come to pass we end up with major damage to crops and even infrastructure due to the fact here in the deep South we aren't as prepared for this type of weather as our Northern neighbors.

[Portastorm]

Interesting, ALL of the medium-range models are back in agreement -- like there were two days ago -- on the next major winter weather event for Texas. It looks like the Mother Lode of Arctic Air will be dumped into Texas one week from today. While the GFS suggests we end up more on the backside of this airmass ... both the Euro and Canadian have it headed straight towards us!

And if that isn't enough for ya, the STJ stays noisy and all three models show wintry precip for much of the state late next week. Given that we have such unusual consensus and saw it two days ago as well, I'm thinking we have a decent shot at this actually happening!

Hmmm...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

Hey no fair ... that's the 6z run and I was talking about the 0z run!

OK, so now all three medium-range models show total agreement. (Portastorm starts to sing) "All three models agree, kumbaya, Arctic Outbreak for me, kumbaya ... "

[vbhoutex]

Interesting, ALL of the medium-range models are back in agreement -- like there were two days ago -- on the next major winter weather event for Texas. It looks like the Mother Lode of Arctic Air will be dumped into Texas one week from today. While the GFS suggests we end up more on the backside of this airmass ... both the Euro and Canadian have it headed straight towards us!

And if that isn't enough for ya, the STJ stays noisy and all three models show wintry precip for much of the state late next week. Given that we have such unusual consensus and saw it two days ago as well, I'm thinking we have a decent shot at this actually happening!

Hmmm...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

That doesn't look like the rear end of an air mass to me!! More like a major stab right through the heart of Texas.

[Ntxw]

Interesting, ALL of the medium-range models are back in agreement -- like there were two days ago -- on the next major winter weather event for Texas. It looks like the Mother Lode of Arctic Air will be dumped into Texas one week from today. While the GFS suggests we end up more on the backside of this airmass ... both the Euro and Canadian have it headed straight towards us!

And if that isn't enough for ya, the STJ stays noisy and all three models show wintry precip for much of the state late next week. Given that we have such unusual consensus and saw it two days ago as well, I'm thinking we have a decent shot at this actually happening!

As we get closer in it definitely becomes more of a possibility. I'm not about to say we will get the storm of all storms or anything like that, but this type of agreement among the models is becoming a familiar pattern and that pattern will usually bear fruit. The temps being shown just make my bones shiver , much less my body(which quivers on its own anyway ). If the precip. comes to pass that would be even more "bonus" . The biggest problem with these polar dumps though is that if they do come to pass we end up with major damage to crops and even infrastructure due to the fact here in the deep South we aren't as prepared for this type of weather as our Northern neighbors.

If that comes true I think even our northern neighbors will be having their own problems with THAT kind of cold

[vbhoutex]

Interesting, ALL of the medium-range models are back in agreement -- like there were two days ago -- on the next major winter weather event for Texas. It looks like the Mother Lode of Arctic Air will be dumped into Texas one week from today. While the GFS suggests we end up more on the backside of this airmass ... both the Euro and Canadian have it headed straight towards us!

And if that isn't enough for ya, the STJ stays noisy and all three models show wintry precip for much of the state late next week. Given that we have such unusual consensus and saw it two days ago as well, I'm thinking we have a decent shot at this actually happening!

As we get closer in it definitely becomes more of a possibility. I'm not about to say we will get the storm of all storms or anything like that, but this type of agreement among the models is becoming a familiar pattern and that pattern will usually bear fruit. The temps being shown just make my bones shiver , much less my body(which quivers on its own anyway ). If the precip. comes to pass that would be even more "bonus" . The biggest problem with these polar dumps though is that if they do come to pass we end up with major damage to crops and even infrastructure due to the fact here in the deep South we aren't as prepared for this type of weather as our Northern neighbors.

If that comes true I think even our northern neighbors will be having their own problems with THAT kind of cold

Good point!!

[Portastorm]

The 0z GFS suggests surface temps in Dallas of around 10 degrees and upper teens for Austin by 12z Friday, Jan. 8th!

[iorange55]

Btw 12z nam






Hmmmm

[vbhoutex]

This speaks more towards SE TX but is of interest for all Texans.
Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Dense fog blankets all of the area this morning with visibilities in the 1 mile to zero range. Should see the fog burn off by late morning as dry westerly winds develop. Models have come in much wetter for this afternoon and tonight and incoming shortwave ove New Mexico does indeed look stronger and a tad southward than projections yesterday. While moisture levels are on the low side...impressive jet stream dynamics will likely result in a bout of showers this evening prior to the passage of a strong cold front late this evening.

Cooler and drier on Friday under cold air advection regime behind this modified polar boundary. Will likely see some locations touch freezing Saturday AM north and west before the next coastal system begins to develop off the lower coast and send clouds back over the region...as out rainfall every 2-3 days pattern continues. Will go below guidance temperatures Sunday as thickening clouds and light rain will keep highs in the lower to middle 50's. Next strong cold blasts through the region late Sunday...moels have been waffering around with how much cold air dumps in behind this boundary. Experience this winter has been colder and wetter wins the debate...so will undercut guidance yet again and then await the next coastal trough formation almost like clock work about 2 days after the Sunday event. Not sure how much clearing there will be in the Mon-Tues period as the coastal feature may sling enough cloud cover back northward.

Next item or greater concern is the very cold air mass building over NW Canada. ECMWF, GFS, and CMC all show a favorable upper level pattern by the middle to end of next week to deliver this bitter cold straight southward down the plains. GFS shows a better push to the SE with a galcing blow to TX. Currently will favor the straight south shot, but not go anywhere near the extreme numbers guidance is putting out...for now will lower highs into the 40's and lows into the upper 20's...which is much warmer than guidance...models have been a little bullish of late with these outbreaks in the long range and then too warm in the shorter range. Noisy sub-tropical jet will remain close by which will also bear close watch. It is only a matter of time before the frequent cold fronts and frequent Gulf lows produce another winter weather event over the lower half of TX. It is interesting to note that of the 20% of winter snows in south Texas, 67% have happened during El Nino winters.

[Ntxw]

Btw 12z nam






Hmmmm

Lets see what the GFS this morning has to say before we bring up surprises. IF it comes true, this would be one of those dreaded surprise events that causes havoc (with people out for new year's eve parties and such).

[gofrogs]

Why whats the 12z nam suggesting.

[iorange55]

Why whats the 12z nam suggesting.

A lot more moisture for tonight than what was expected, and the magic snow line creeping further south. Could become pretty interesting, we'll see.

[Ntxw]

Mostly I would question if the temperature profiles are cold enough. If it moves fast might just be a cold rain then flurries on the back end.

Edit: Luckily there's a cold front coming through today

[srainhoutx]

HPC Prelim Extended Disco...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
901 AM EST THU DEC 31 2009

VALID 12Z MON JAN 04 2010 - 12Z THU JAN 07 2010

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST OF THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE REMAINS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... WITH A BLOCKING HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN GREENLAND... A SLOWLY EXITING CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA... AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY
VALUES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA AWAY
FROM THE CLOSED LOW AND LOWER IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN PART TO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD THROUGH DAY 7 WITH THE MOST
CONTENTIOUS TIME FRAME RIGHT AT DAY 3 OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND.

THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALONE IN EMPHASIZING A FARTHER OFFSHORE
LOW NEAR 60W AS OPPOSED TO THE GREATER CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z
GFS/UKMET/GEFS MEAN AS WELL AS THE 06Z GFS/NAM. THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BANKING ON A DEEP LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FOCUSED ON A FARTHER OFFSHORE LOW. BOWED
SOMEWHAT TO CONTINUITY AT THIS POINT BUT DID NOTE A SHIFT OF THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AWAY FROM THE MAINE COAST AND A
SIMULTANEOUS SHIFT OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS TOWARDS THE COAST.
CHOSE TO DEPICT A WEAKER LOW NEAR THE MAINE COAST WITH A STRONGER
LOW TO ITS EAST AT THIS TIME IN THE MIDST OF OPPOSING TRENDS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CONVERGE AS THE LOW PULLS INTO THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE BY TUE/D5. THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE LOW TO
HEAD NORTHWESTWARD TO HUDSON BAY WHILE A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE FARTHER EAST TOWARD A 00Z GFS POSITION. A COMPROMISE
WOULD BEST BE SUITED BY A MORE ROBUST 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
REGARDLESS... HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA TO KEEP MOST OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE GREAT BASIN COLD.
DID NOT WANT TO PUSH THE COLD AIR WELL WEST OF THE DIVIDE AS THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD PUNCH SHOULD BE DOWN THE PLAINS AND THEN EAST.
ANY GULF OF MEXICO DEVELOPMENT LOOKS WEAK AND SHEARED THOUGH THE
06Z GFS MANAGES TO DEVELOP A SYSTEM BY WED-THU/D6-7.

MANUAL GRAPHICS FOCUSED LARGELY ON THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
AFTER AN ADJUSTED 00Z GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE POSITION OFFSHORE MAINE
DAY 3. ADDED MORE DETAIL TO THE MEAN FIELDS AS THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS SHOWED STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS
KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FROM OVERNIGHT ISSUANCE.

FRACASSO

[TexasStorm]

:uarrow: Mostly I would question if the temperature profiles are cold enough. If it moves fast might just be a cold rain then flurries on the back end.

Edit: Luckily there's a cold front coming through today

Agreed. On the morning soundings there is a +7.0 degree reading in the 300-500mb range and a +2.0 in the 700-850mb range. That is going to be tough to overcome.

[srainhoutx]

FWD agrees...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
913 AM CST THU DEC 31 2009

.AVIATION...
UPDATED TAF FORECAST TO CONTINUE IFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
KEPT MVFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR METROPLEX SITES.
U/A ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN MODELS
HAD FORECAST AND THEREFORE PROSPECTS FOR STEADY LIGHT RAIN LOOK
GOOD FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT TAF SITES. MODELS STILL INDICATING
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AND WILL LIKELY KEEP
SNOW NW/N OF TAF SITES. EVEN IF A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES SHOULD FALL
AT TAF SITES...TEMPS WILL BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING WITH LITTLE
IMPACT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TR.92