Texas Winter 2016-2017

[orangeblood]

Surprised at the warmth for next week. Hard to get pumped for a chance of snow when almost 70's are coming!

It will be easier to deal with (and go by mentally quicker) if we get some snow on Friday . Late Euro has a surging arctic front behind the warmth as the -EPO/-WPO is dumping very cold air into Canada. It's certainly possible under it's own weight may overpower it anyway. Kind of like the week before Christmas when the pressures were hardly that high but the temp gradient was so strong and cold won.

Yeah, the next intriguing time frame for winter weather is around mid month...if we can get the Pacific system to eject out across the southern plains as the PV is pivoting back down into southern Canada we might get something going. A few of the Ensemble members are showing this....

[Portastorm]

The grim reality of it all is that if you are a winter weather lover in Texas, you really pretty much only have 9-10 weeks left of "potential." Sure we have seen some snows in North Texas in March and even the extremely rare events in early April. But realistically, the bulk of the state is only "in play" through February. By the time we get to the next period of potential, we'll have already burned 3 weeks of that 9-10 weeks. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer ... and I'm not happy at all about it, but as I see it, that's the facts.

The frequency of "wintry" weather events in south central, south, and southeast Texas seems to be diminishing each year. Call it climate change or global warming or whatever the heck you want ... but that's the painful reality. It does make me wonder if this will be the new normal or if this period is just temporary.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The grim reality of it all is that if you are a winter weather lover in Texas, you really pretty much only have 9-10 weeks left of "potential." Sure we have seen some snows in North Texas in March and even the extremely rare events in early April. But realistically, the bulk of the state is only "in play" through February. By the time we get to the next period of potential, we'll have already burned 3 weeks of that 9-10 weeks. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer ... and I'm not happy at all about it, but as I see it, that's the facts.

The frequency of "wintry" weather events in south central, south, and southeast Texas seems to be diminishing each year. Call it climate change or global warming or whatever the heck you want ... but that's the painful reality. It does make me wonder if this will be the new normal or if this period is just temporary.

On average, Houston to Austin only sees a couple of events every decade, if that. That goes back a ways too.

In the past decade, we've seen 13 observable Winter events (that I can count) in Houston metro. We are going to have bad streaks. Our current bad streak sits at 1.5 Winter timeframes. The Winters from 07-14 were largely generous to us.

Simply put, we can look at a couple of things for why the last Winter and a half has been suboptimal.

1) Super Nino last year with very warm waters off of Mexico. TORCH!
2) While more favorable this year, we are seeing a very typical Nina climo with +PDO work itself out. Quick dumps of cold air followed by warmth. Ninas with +PDO rarely give us cool or even seasonal weather for extended periods of time.

Given the relativity of it all, its hard to make a case that Winter events are becoming less frequent, IMO. The 1990s, 1950s and 1930s were all Winter averse decades with very few Winter events in the Southern half of Texas... much less than the last decade. The reality of it all is... WE GOT SPOILED WITH THE LAST DECADE.

[texas1836]

The grim reality of it all is that if you are a winter weather lover in Texas, you really pretty much only have 9-10 weeks left of "potential." Sure we have seen some snows in North Texas in March and even the extremely rare events in early April. But realistically, the bulk of the state is only "in play" through February. By the time we get to the next period of potential, we'll have already burned 3 weeks of that 9-10 weeks. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer ... and I'm not happy at all about it, but as I see it, that's the facts.

The frequency of "wintry" weather events in south central, south, and southeast Texas seems to be diminishing each year. Call it climate change or global warming or whatever the heck you want ... but that's the painful reality. It does make me wonder if this will be the new normal or if this period is just temporary.

I don't know. It's been cold enough, just no moisture to a company the cold. It's hit or miss.

[wxman57]

Here's a satellite shot I saved from the Christmas snow miracle of 2004. Up to a foot of snow fell along the beaches SW of Galveston. Heaviest snow was right on the coast. We got a couple inches at my house in SW Houston. Lesser amounts in north Houston.

[Texas Snowman]

The grim reality of it all is that if you are a winter weather lover in Texas, you really pretty much only have 9-10 weeks left of "potential." Sure we have seen some snows in North Texas in March and even the extremely rare events in early April. But realistically, the bulk of the state is only "in play" through February. By the time we get to the next period of potential, we'll have already burned 3 weeks of that 9-10 weeks. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer ... and I'm not happy at all about it, but as I see it, that's the facts.

Of course the OTHER way to look at all of this is to remember that meteorological winter is just more than four weeks old.

And that astronomical winter is just more than two weeks old.

So there's still more wintertime left than what has already passed us by.

In other words, the snow shovel isn't empty, it's still more than half full.

[ronyan]

That was a glorious event wxman, I received 7 inches at my home in Lake Jackson a few miles inland.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Here's a satellite shot I saved from the Christmas snow miracle of 2004. Up to a foot of snow fell along the beaches SW of Galveston. Heaviest snow was right on the coast. We got a couple inches at my house in SW Houston. Lesser amounts in north Houston.

http://i68.tinypic.com/30xan46.jpg

My house in far Northwest Corpus got six inches from that memorable event. Not too far to west of me, some folks had 10 to 14 inches.

What an event it was!

[Ntxw]

I see the heat miser trying to butter us snow lovers, just before a huge warm up next week before the fry! He keeps the door just open enough to torture us

Feb is our best month for snow. Its never over until you get past the first half of that month!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The grim reality of it all is that if you are a winter weather lover in Texas, you really pretty much only have 9-10 weeks left of "potential." Sure we have seen some snows in North Texas in March and even the extremely rare events in early April. But realistically, the bulk of the state is only "in play" through February. By the time we get to the next period of potential, we'll have already burned 3 weeks of that 9-10 weeks. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer ... and I'm not happy at all about it, but as I see it, that's the facts.

The frequency of "wintry" weather events in south central, south, and southeast Texas seems to be diminishing each year. Call it climate change or global warming or whatever the heck you want ... but that's the painful reality. It does make me wonder if this will be the new normal or if this period is just temporary.

On average, Houston to Austin only sees a couple of events every decade, if that. That goes back a ways too.

In the past decade, we've seen 13 observable Winter events (that I can count) in Houston metro. We are going to have bad streaks. Our current bad streak sits at 1.5 Winter timeframes. The Winters from 07-14 were largely generous to us.

Simply put, we can look at a couple of things for why the last Winter and a half has been suboptimal.

1) Super Nino last year with very warm waters off of Mexico. TORCH!
2) While more favorable this year, we are seeing a very typical Nina climo with +PDO work itself out. Quick dumps of cold air followed by warmth. Ninas with +PDO rarely give us cool or even seasonal weather for extended periods of time.

Given the relativity of it all, its hard to make a case that Winter events are becoming less frequent, IMO. The 1990s, 1950s and 1930s were all Winter averse decades with very few Winter events in the Southern half of Texas... much less than the last decade. The reality of it all is... WE GOT SPOILED WITH THE LAST DECADE.

Wow 13 is alot. i live in Sugar land and i seriously remember about 5 at most. Including times it snowed for like 10 minutes. With that said, during that time frame was the most winter weather id ever seen while here. The 90's was horrible. I remember 3 winter events for the entire 90's after the 1989 blast. 2004 was the best surprise ever and i'll be thankful if it ever gets topped. Only thing that could top it would be a massive storm.
2008 and 2009, setting the earliest snowfall record two years in a row was pretty cool though.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at the GFS, it has been directing the colder air more into texas over the last couple days with this system. Lets hope it means cooler temps.

[Texas Snowman]

Given the relativity of it all, its hard to make a case that Winter events are becoming less frequent, IMO. The 1990s, 1950s and 1930s were all Winter averse decades with very few Winter events in the Southern half of Texas... much less than the last decade. The reality of it all is... WE GOT SPOILED WITH THE LAST DECADE.

Spot on, was just thinking that. I got married in the summer of 1992. From then until late 2000, snow and ice were rareties in Grayson County. My young children hardly knew what snow was except for our family/church ski trips to Colorado.

But that all started changing at the end of 2000. We had the massive Christmas Day ice storm up here in the Red River Valley. That was followed by a four to five inch snowfall on Dec. 31, 2000 (the "Snow Bowl" Independence Bowl in Shreveport between Texas A&M and Mississippi State). In fact, that was the first time we ever got to take our kids sledding!

Since then? Many memorable snow and ice events, at least here in the Red River Valley. That includes a snowfall on Christmas Eve in 2009 (and a blizzard with 10-inches one county west of here), a White Christmas snowfall in 2012, a paralyzing sleet storm in early December 2013, etc.

We even had a foot of snow once and several big snows in February and March (even as late as the final week of March). All told, there have been several amazing winters in North Texas since 2000.

We're in a tough stretch where winter weather hasn't happened as frequently here in Texas the last couple of years, but it will change again at some point (even in Austin).

We pretend that Wxman57 has some control over the weather, but he really doesn't.

[Ntxw]

Canadian has a cold air mass digging south around the time the euro has. Alone the cmc is more of a jester but it does agree somewhat with the euro that the warmth could be undercut. We may ride this rollercoaster right through spring between contrasts of cold and warmth

[gpsnowman]

I see the heat miser trying to butter us snow lovers, just before a huge warm up next week before the fry! He keeps the door just open enough to torture us

Feb is our best month for snow. Its never over until you get past the first half of that month!

Yeah I never give up until the end of Feb. Any snow in March is a bonus but I am ready for warmth and thunderstorms by then. I'll always remember the big sleet storm in late Feb 2003. We are never out of it until then.

[Texas Snowman]

On the topic I referenced above, the 2013-2014 winter had 51 freezes in Dallas/Fort Worth!!! That was the most in 30 years and ranks 7th all-time.

And who can forget the 12.5-inch snowfall in Big D on Feb. 11-12, 2010? That broke the Metroplex's all-time 24-hour snowfall record.

That winter was particularly snowy in Big D with more than 17-inches for the season (we had more than 20-inches for the season in northern Grayson County.)

What about the snowy Super Bowl week in 2011? Never thought I'd see a Super Bowl played in Texas - at Jerry World - impacted by several inches of snow.

Even last winter, Lubbock had its 3rd biggest snow in 50 years (11.2 inches) and Friona had 20-inches. And that's in a blow-torch El Niño winter.

Staying out west, Amarillo had its second biggest snowfall on record in late February 2013 when they got 19-inches of snow and drifts of more than 10 feet.

And that glorious 2004 White Christmas referenced by Wxman57? That was an ALL-TIME once in a lifetime event for many people in south and southeast Texas. Some people had more than a foot of snow on Christmas Eve night!!!

So I'd say that memorable winter weather hasn't been absent during the past 15 years. It just hasn't shown up very often in Austin and San Antonio.

But we're working on it Portastorm, we're working on it.

[Texas Snowman]

FYI, here's a video of that 2000 Snow Bowl between the Aggies and Mississippi State:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-G847hWxfT8

[Theepicman116]

Please explain this too me! The radar on both the weather channel app and AccuWeather app are showing sleet or ice precip but none of the weather men in the DFW metroplex are reporting it.

[Stormnut]

Please explain this too me! The radar on both the weather channel app and AccuWeather app are showing sleet or ice precip but none of the weather men in the DFW metroplex are reporting it.

Most likely virga... evaporating before reaching the surface

[davidiowx]

Please explain this too me! The radar on both the weather channel app and AccuWeather app are showing sleet or ice precip but none of the weather men in the DFW metroplex are reporting it.

Most likely virga... evaporating before reaching the surface

Yep. That is exactly what it is.

[Texas Snow]

The lower 18K ft are pretty dry in DFW



And that Snow Bowl was awesome (well until the very end.) I barely made in back from Vail to watch it because our plane just sat in the snow waiting for a gate at DFW because everything was close to being shut down and planes were taking forever to being de-iced.