Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

Latest from NWS FW.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1113 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest air so far this season is expected the next few
nights. Overnight lows will drop into the teens and lower 20s.
Wind chills will drop into the single digits and low teens
tonight and the teens Tuesday and Wednesday.

- There is now high confidence in some wintry precipitation
Wednesday night through Friday morning, with a 80-90% chance of
at least measurable (>0.1") snowfall accumulations. There is
increasing confidence in a more impactful winter storm during
this timeframe, including snowfall accumulations >4".

They may be ready to pull the trigger on watches soon.

They’re going to have a really busy week. Can’t imagine the travel nightmare this is going to turn into for Cotton Bowl Travelers

Next week is looking interesting as well. We may be in the same spot model watching again while this storm is going on. Busy times for them.

[Quixotic]

If the entire column is sub freezing and the surface is at 32, the precip should cool off the surface.

[txtwister78]

Current NBM (blend of models) snowfall accumulation totals through noon Friday.

[rwfromkansas]

Depends on surface temps obviously. It can snow above 32 degrees and so while a foot is probably a high end prediction, it's what actually sticks to roads and doesn't melt will of course determine impacts to travel. Most models warm above freezing Friday anyway and so yeah seems a little hype driven in my opinion .

Not with a snow pack of that magnitude, temps will barely make it above freezing and will crater at night to refreeze everything.

Yeah we have a friend flying in at 3:00pm on Saturday. We told her it might not happen, of course she's coming in from Iowa so they're used to it.

But if it does it'll be White Knuckle driving in my Telluride.

I have a UIL journalism practice meet on Sunday with some students, and that may not happen at this point if we get 8 inches or more. Lol.

[Iceresistance]

Okay, who broke the 0z Euro?

[Ntxw]

Okay, who broke the 0z Euro?

Wxman57, he can't be having these outputs of "winter".

[cheezyWXguy]

Current NBM (blend of models) snowfall accumulation totals through noon Friday.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/tx/total_snow/1736132400/1736532000-4rMSY7uenzk.png

I wonder why these accumulations are so low when all the other guidance is so much higher?

[HockeyTx82]

Okay, who broke the 0z Euro?

Wxman57, he can't be having these outputs of "winter".

And I was just about to fall asleep........

What broke?

[rwfromkansas]

Current NBM (blend of models) snowfall accumulation totals through noon Friday.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/tx/total_snow/1736132400/1736532000-4rMSY7uenzk.png

I wonder why these accumulations are so low when all the other guidance is so much higher?

It seems to always be much lower than the others every storm until right before, not sure why.

[rwfromkansas]

A couple 18-inch totals in KS, including pretty close to where my sister lives in Manhattan.

[Ntxw]

Okay, who broke the 0z Euro?

Wxman57, he can't be having these outputs of "winter".

And I was just about to fall asleep........

What broke?

It paused but looks to be running again.

[Iceresistance]

Wxman57, he can't be having these outputs of "winter".

And I was just about to fall asleep........

What broke?

It paused but looks to be running again.

It has been stuck on +18 hours on my end

[HockeyTx82]

Wxman57, he can't be having these outputs of "winter".

And I was just about to fall asleep........

What broke?

It paused but looks to be running again.

Oh I thought it completely flipped and we were losing hope all of a sudden. I did not realize you guys meant it literally broke and was not working.

[Brandon8181]

GEFS totals going up from prior runs.

https://i.imgur.com/ceugUcY.png

https://i.imgur.com/NpgDfFs.gif

Those animated GEFS images crack me up…what a ridiculous model, reminds me of a dog chasing its tail until it finally realizes what’s happening

Also looks like NWS chasing totals literally as it happened in……2010, ?? N.Tx counties got 12+ inches of snow.

[Iceresistance]

Now the Euro is running again, I hope it fought off 57's attempts to torch it

[Brandon8181]

Current NBM (blend of models) snowfall accumulation totals through noon Friday.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/tx/total_snow/1736132400/1736532000-4rMSY7uenzk.png

I wonder why these accumulations are so low when all the other guidance is so much higher?

I was wondering the same thing. It didn’t really seem that blended? Maybe someone can give us an explanation?

[Ntxw]

It's looking a little more amplified so far on the Euro. Another big run.

[Iceresistance]

It's looking a little more amplified so far on the Euro. Another big run.

More SW too


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXneR.gif

[txtwister78]

Current NBM (blend of models) snowfall accumulation totals through noon Friday.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/tx/total_snow/1736132400/1736532000-4rMSY7uenzk.png

I wonder why these accumulations are so low when all the other guidance is so much higher?

My guess is we're seeing some higher totals in the models because some struggle with separating sleet from their snowfall algorithm output. It could also be how much of that actually reaches the ground and sticks etc. but that typically isn't an issue obviously when you get into heavier precip and the dry air moistens quickly to ensure accumulation. The NBM is showing true snow but again it's a blend so it's going to be lower in general than what may actually unfold but important to keep in mind nonetheless when looking at some of these massive snowfall totals. Euro does this on weatherbell btw where it shows sleet as the predominant precip type, but converts that into snowfall accumulation totals thus the higher end snowfall output.

Across West Texas where upper level temps are more than supportive for all snow and so that's why you see a little higher totals out there on the NBM.

[Ntxw]

This amped euro run is getting DFW (into some mixing) with still snow in there. Oklahoma would definitely favor this run, gets more qpf up there as well.