Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[northjaxpro]

And then it could get really cold again. This is from our morning long range forecast...


LONG TERM...
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES DROPPING INTO A MEAN
TROUGH POSITION ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO KEEP THE ARCTIC
SURGES DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF STATES WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE FREQUENCY OF RESURGENCES ARE ABOUT EVERY THREE DAYS
WITH THE LONGER RANGE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING EVEN COLDER AIR
ENTERING THE AREA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG SHARP THERMAL TROUGH.
WHILE MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...SOME SENSIBLE WEATHER MAY BE NOTED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SEA FOG DEVELOPMENTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A RAIN CHANCE
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE WEEKEND. 24/RR

Yeah, this is what I have been keeping an eye on the past several days. The model guidance long range runs from the middle part of last week showed the potential of some very cold arctic air diving south from the January 16 -20 period. I have been wary of this, and as we will have a moderating of temps this upcoming weekend, it is possible that the warm-up will be brief again. We will see. The models have been persistent on latching onto another arctic air surge for that timeframe I referenced for quite some time now.

[Brent]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
109 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

GAZ025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113-120615-
JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-
CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-
SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-
TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-
JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-
MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-
TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-
TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-
TELFAIR-WHEELER-MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
109 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

...DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA...

A WINTER STORM THAT TRACKED THROUGH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
DUMPED SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...FREEZING DRIZZLE
PERSISTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS
DIMINISHING...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE....NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. DRIVING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TREACHEROUS ACROSS NORTH AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NORTH GEORGIA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA STILL HAVE SNOW...SLEET
AND ICE ON THE GROUND. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY MOISTURE ON THE
SIDEWALKS AND ROADWAYS TO FREEZE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE CHANCE FOR THE ICE TO MELT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

ALTHOUGH THE BEST OPTION IS NOT TO DRIVE IN THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS...USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL. SLOW DOWN AND
LEAVE EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

[Ivanhater]

Models are latching onto another arctic outbreak heading into the U.S and making it down south. Obviously, the details of exactly where are not clear yet. Looks like Mrs. La Nina is still on her extended vacation. This winter has been anything but warm and dry.

Another 1052 high sliding out of Canada

[zippity]

Models are latching onto another arctic outbreak heading into the U.S and making it down south. Obviously, the details of exactly where are not clear yet. Looks like Mrs. La Nina is still on her extended vacation. This winter has been anything but warm and dry.

Another 1052 high sliding out of Canada

Big Hairy Rats!!!

Isn't extreme weather fluctuations a characteristic of La Nina? Not sure, I'm no meteorologist...

[northjaxpro]

It has been a surprisingly amazing cold winter season to this point for sure. We already this season have had the coldest December ever recorded here in Jax and the peninsula in general, and I have already measured more rain the past couple of weeks than what I had in nearly 100 days since late Sept 2010. I had measured a total of only 1.03 inch of rain from Sept 27-Dec 22. Now, I have measured a total just over 2.75 inches just since the Christmas weekend. Plus, we had a surprise brief light snow/flurries
event here on the day after Christmas.

As I have referenced in the above post on this page, for about the past week, the models have been persistent on bringing down another major arctic air surge into the CONUS for the Jan 16-20 period. It is beginning to look more probable that this may come to fruition. We should hopefully get better confidence about this as time progresses.

So, It is looking more to me that the anticipated neutral/positive phase of the NAO and AO doesn't look to happen at least for another 10 days, possibly the end of January. Simply amazing.

I measured 28.7 degrees for a low this morning, the 21st freeze recorded here since December 1. We expect hard freezes here the next two mornings, with low to mid 20s expected in the colder interior areas of NE FL.

[vbhoutex]

Models are latching onto another arctic outbreak heading into the U.S and making it down south. Obviously, the details of exactly where are not clear yet. Looks like Mrs. La Nina is still on her extended vacation. This winter has been anything but warm and dry.

Another 1052 high sliding out of Canada

Big Hairy Rats!!!

Isn't extreme weather fluctuations a characteristic of La Nina? Not sure, I'm no meteorologist...

Nor am I a meteorologist. However the way I understand it La Nina usually does have a few extremes, but not one after the other or for extended periods as we have seen in many areas of the country. One of the kickers in all of this is that the -NAO is still in place helping to feed cold air to the South. It was not expected to be anchored in place for as long as it has been. I hope something comes along and dislodges it soon.

[Agua]

One of the kickers in all of this is that the -NAO is still in place helping to feed cold air to the South. It was not expected to be anchored in place for as long as it has been. I hope something comes along and dislodges it soon.

It can dislodge anytime after January 31, 2011 that it wishes to. Until then, duck season is on!

[georgia_tech_swagger]

We got 6" with a glaze of ice on top in Greenville-Spartanburg, SC. It's still struggling to melt away. Schools are closed through at least Thursday here. And what do we have coming in the forecast? Another round?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 PM EST WED JAN 12 2011

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION
FORM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...REACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY. LIMITED NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN SUNDAY. RETURN
FLOW FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE POST FRONTAL
SURFACE RIDGE...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WILL ALLOW STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO SETUP
ON MONDAY...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TN BORDER.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THAT MODEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND FORECAST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER LOW DURING THE
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ICE IN THE CLOUDS ALOFT...AND DISPLAY ONLY A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF WARM NOSING ALOFT WITH COLD AIR UNDERNEATH...AND
GENERALLY SUPPORT EITHER A RAIN OR SNOW FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR SOME
FREEZING RAIN AT DAWN. SNOW WOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION TYPE...TIMING
AND AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

[Metalicwx220]

When is there going to be a costal snowstorm for like Georgia, South Corona and Florida? When you see a rare deep south snowstorm so close to you and you miss it. You want to see another one especially if you saw snow.

[Metalicwx220]

WOW 7 in one year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Never gonna happen agin. January 8–9, 2010: Very light dusting of snow seen in the eastern Jacksonville area. Light snow also fell in parts of central Florida, which briefly accumulated slightly in parts of Marion County. Sleet was widespread and snow was isolated across the Orlando area, Tampa and also in Melbourne. Isolated flurries were even reported as from West Palm Beach to as far south as Kendall and sleet in a few spots in the South Florida metropolitan area for only the second time in record history and first time since 1977.
February 12, 2010: A possibility of up to 2-6 inches of snow were predicted in Northwestern Florida including Pensacola and Crestview. Actual totals ended up around 1 inch in many spots. 2010 is the first year since the mid-1950s to have more than one accumulation of snow in a single year.
February 14, 2010: A half inch of snow fell across the northern halves of Escambia, Santa Rosa, Walton and Okaloosa Counties. Snowfall was associated with an Alberta clipper that sank southward due to Arctic air left by the cold front from the previous snow event.
December 8, 2010: Snow mixed with rain is reported in western parts of the panhandle, north of Pensacola. Snow flurries were reported across the North Escambia area this morning, incluing Atmore, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Flomaton, Byrneville, Century, Brewton, Lambeth, Little River, Poarch and Huxford.
December 15, 2010: Though possibly virga, a wintry mix of rain and snow was shown on radar around Century and Walnut Hill as well as southeast of Panama City, possibly remnants of a line of snow that moved through southern Alabama around 4-5 AM local time.
December 26, 2010: A mix of snow and sleet was reported in Jacksonville by NWS.
Additional reports of snow flurries were reported in Tallahassee, Gainesville and other spots in the northern peninsula.

December 28, 2010: Light snow was reported at Tampa Executive at 1AM and 5AM local time, following a rare freezing fog event around midnight.
2010, and December in particular, may also have set a record for number of snow events in Florida
2011 January something think there was sleet in pensacola. Global warming fun for floweridians.

[northjaxpro]

We are still only in mid January right now. Still have a good month or so of possibly receiving some pretty good cold air surges into the Deep South. If the negative phase of the NAO and AO should unexpectedly last into February, then more arctic air surges seem more probable for sure. I still am inclined to think that there is a slight/fair chance that we may see another event of frozen precipitaton across the FL panhandle and North FL area if the southern branch of the jet stream can become active again, like we have seen in the past month. I must say I enjoyed seeing the light snow fall at my home in Jax the day after Christmas, even though it was for just a few minutes.

Meanwhile, the long range 7 day AFD from Atlanta, GA from earlier this morning 1/15/11.

1/15/11

Morning Long Range Discussion from Atlanta, GA Peachtree City WFO


From Atlanta,GA extended.....

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIODS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS DURING
THE LATER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WHEN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
ARCTIC OUTBREAK INTO THE EASTERN U.S. APPEARS LIKELY. FOR
TUE-WED...PREFER THE GFS SCENARIO WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED. THUS...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA TUE...SHIFTING EAST TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. A
WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD ERODE FROM ALL
EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NE COUNTIES BY TUE AFTERNOON. TUE SHOULD OFFER
THE WARMEST TEMPS TO THE REGION WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME...BUT
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP IT COOLER THAN IT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE. ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR WED AS A MODIFIED
CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BY THU...A STRONG SHORT WAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN THE PREDOMINATE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HERALD THE
BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THE SOURCE OF THIS AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS RUSSIA...AND TRAVELS ACROSS THE N POLE AND INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE CORE OF THIS AIR CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS NEAR
-40C. THIS COLD OUTBREAK MAY RIVAL THE 12-13 DEC COLD OUTBREAK AS
850MB TEMPS APPROACH -18C ACROSS N GA TO -10C ACROSS CENTRAL GA.HOWEVER...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT LAST AS LONG AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY KICKS THE DEEPEST COLD AIR OUT WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE
UNDERCUT THE MEX MOS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE FRI-SAT PERIOD...GIVEN
HISTORY OF SUCH EVENTS THIS WINTER WITH SIMILAR 850MB PROGGED TEMPS.
GUIDANCE TENDING WAY TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND NOT PROPERLY
ACCOUNTING FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS COLD AIR. STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WIND CHILLS THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING.

[tugreenie]

The Weather Channel (of all places) is the only source showing more cold air next weekend along the gulf coast. The temps they have predicted for my area (Bay Saint Louis) are just as cold as the last cold shot. High of 43 and low of 23 next Saturday. Anybody have any feedback on this?

[Kennethb]

It appears that cold will dominate for the next several weeks, with brief warmth as the AO approaches 0 before it drops again. Can it make it briefly into the positive?

Some small steps to spring are apparent here in the deep south: Swamp red maples are in full bloom, Taiwan Flowering Cherries are about to bust open. And the days, at least the evenings, are staying light later.

One other observation is that I have not seen nor heard any cedar waxwings yet. And have not seen one robin.

[bella_may]

So far looks like enough moisture will be in place to support another snow event thursday,friday,or saturday morning but still too far off to tell. Let's hope the moisture hits at just the right time!!

[Brent]

There is still snow on the ground in this state from last Sunday!

From BMX:

Thursday Night...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow in the evening...then slight chance of very light snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

From FFC:

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A slight chance of flurries. Partly sunny, with a high near 32.

[sherry]

NOAA is calling for a 30% chance of snow for Statesville NC for Thursday. Also calling on a chance Tuesday night.

We still have snow also. But our kids missed a whole week of school last week. So hoping it just snow on the weekends and be gone by Sunday nights..lol

[Brent]

Yeah, a lot of schools north of me were closed all week too. I heard spring break is gone in some districts. College was only closed 2 days thankfully.

From BMX:

THE DRY SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS A STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THE DRY
AND COLDER GFS HAS REALLY SHIFTED GEARS AND IS NOW IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER AND WETTER ECMWF MODEL. NORMALLY DO NOT LIKE TO
MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PACKAGE...
BUT CURRENT FORECAST ONLY MENTIONED FLURRIES WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S....AND THE GEM MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING A SIMILAR
SET-UP WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST AND
LIFTING ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA. THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL IS TRENDING
FARTHER SOUTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH MEANS THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

[jinftl]

As a south floridian, i am not above thinking that florida is the center of the world, but globally, 2010 was the warmest year on record. Even down here in south fla - we had the hottest summer on record....a handful of well below normal days in winter is a welcome change (factoids on 2010 - Miami had 103 days over 90 degrees - the average is 51 days each year. No relief at night either - Miami suffered through 45 nights of low temps over 80 deg...the average # in a year is 13!!).

The extremes in temps...and extremes in weather...are increasing in frequency locally and globally...as climate change would predict.

Global warming fun for floweridians.

[georgia_tech_swagger]

As a south floridian, i am not above thinking that florida is the center of the world, but globally, 2010 was the warmest year on record. Even down here in south fla - we had the hottest summer on record....a handful of well below normal days in winter is a welcome change (factoids on 2010 - Miami had 103 days over 90 degrees - the average is 51 days each year. No relief at night either - Miami suffered through 45 nights of low temps over 80 deg...the average # in a year is 13!!).

The extremes in temps...and extremes in weather...are increasing in frequency locally and globally...as climate change would predict.

We'll agree to disagree -- and let's please avoid this OT subject in this thread? kthnx.

[georgia_tech_swagger]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION -- NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC -- 1230 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. FIRST IS WITH A REINFORCING S/W THAT DIVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WED NGT INTO THU. THE MODELS AT LEAST AGREE ON THE SRN STREAM BECOMING THE DOMINANT JET ACRS THE ERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING INVOF THE SRN PLAINS...THEN TRACKING ALONG GULF COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS THU NGT AND FRI. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN YET ANOTHER WINTER STORM ACRS THE CWA.