Texas Winter 2012-2013

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Congrats Porta. Just noticed radar returns showing bands of snow forming over Tarrant and Denton counties.

Splitting the metroplex.

[TexasF6]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=satwswewx

[perk]

From Joe B: "@BigJoeBastardi: May see it snow all the way into I-10 corridor of Texas Thur or Fri. Money in bank sw system will be heard from. to e coast."

"@BigJoeBastardi: Gotta love it! GFS has nice wintery surprise brewing out of money in the bank system for the deep south. Could even snow on Duck Dynasty."

What is the duck dynasty.

[Kelarie]

Well NWS Shreveport has put in a 20% of snow/sleet for Texarkana W/Th.

And there is sleet/snow moving up from the SW to the Texarkana area. It is a balmy 29 outside.

[gboudx]

What is the duck dynasty.

Reality TV show of a family that lives around Monroe.

Sleeting here in Rockwall.

[weatherdude1108]

No sleet here. But interesting twist(?)!

Looks like a disturbance skirting by in the southwest flow aloft and evaporative cooling played a part.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 141128
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
528 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013/

UPDATE...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BURNET...BASTROP...
WILLIAMSON...LEE AND TRAVIS COUNTIES THRU 10 AM THIS MORNING DUE
TO POSSIBLE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW NERN COUNTIES THRU
MID MORNING DUE TO THE SLEET AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SLEET DEVELOPED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE AREA IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
PCPN WAS RACING NEWD ACROSS THE I35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO
AND AUSTIN. APPEARS THE SLEET WAS A RESULT OF STRONG EVAPORATIVE
COOLING IN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS BELOW 5 THSD FEET[/color]. KEPT THE
LIGHT RAIN/SLEET IN THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE UPPER
SYSTEMS SKIRT EAST OF THE AREA...BUT CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN FAR EAST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. MINS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW WHAT CLOUDS DO
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST...HAVE GONE A FEW
DEGREE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD DAY
TUESDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME OVERRUNNING
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I35 TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. [color=#0000FF]INCREASING PCPN CHANCES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPS INTO
WEST TX. APPEARS THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHOT OF A WINTER WEATHER MIX
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM MODEL IS A BIT
MORE BULLISH ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF.
SO FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT
THRU LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 48 32 43 30 46 / 20 10 10 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 28 43 26 45 / 20 10 10 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 32 44 29 46 / 20 10 10 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 45 28 42 27 47 / 10 10 10 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 51 35 48 31 51 / - - 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 46 27 42 27 46 / 10 10 10 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 51 32 46 28 51 / - - 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 32 43 30 45 / 20 10 10 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 48 35 43 33 46 / 20 10 20 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 33 45 30 48 / 10 - 10 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 50 34 45 31 49 / 10 - 10 20 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...BURNET...LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01

[Portastorm]

This morning's "surprise" little winter precip should throw a big yellow caution flag over any model forecast. Clearly the models are not capturing the energy in this southwest flow. Perhaps it will be a portent of things to come later this week?!

[Texas Snowman]

Light coating of sleet on the roads in Denison. It was clear and cold when I went to bed last night. Surprised to see this!

[Texas Snowman]

This morning's "surprise" little winter precip should throw a big yellow caution flag over any model forecast. Clearly the models are not capturing the energy in this southwest flow. Perhaps it will be a portent of things to come later this week?!

Portastorm, I was thinking the same thing.

[Texas Snowman]

What is the duck dynasty.

It's a show on A&E, highest rated show on cable right now. Pretty clean, wholesome, family show about a family duck call business in northern Louisiana called "Duck Commander." The dad, Phil, actually was a standout college quarterback but liked duck hunting too much and rejected the NFL.

Believe it or not, they've become millionaires thanks to the duck call business they have in Monroe, La.

And all the men in the family wear serious beards, the kind that you might imagine on Wxman57 during a bike-ride in Houston after a 10-inch snow!

My kids love the show (we're duck hunters).

[wxman57]

I notice the models have been backing off on the big cold outbreak next week. GFS does't even have freezing temps south to Houston next week, and the 00Z Euro only has a light freeze to Houston this Thursday and next weekend. Are they right? I hope so. Time to get out of this miserable cold and head toward 80.

[Texas Snowman]

I notice the models have been backing off on the big cold outbreak next week. GFS does't even have freezing temps south to Houston next week, and the 00Z Euro only has a light freeze to Houston this Thursday and next weekend. Are they right? I hope so. Time to get out of this miserable cold and head toward 80.

Oh no you don't Heat Miser! We endured the winter of your dreams last year. This year is the winter of your discontent just like Ntxw's avatar says. We're riding this baby all the way into March!

[Lane]

I have no idea what I am talking about and that you can take to the bank. However looking at the model runs (not euro) the GFS and NAM do not pick up on what is happening right now in east Texas or west LA. I have to agree with Porta that the models are not picking up the intensity of the SW flow. And I did steal the whole SW flow (Credit:Porta) as I do not know what I am talking about.
I just want it to feel like winter once and for all here in the deep south.

[wxman57]

I notice the models have been backing off on the big cold outbreak next week. GFS does't even have freezing temps south to Houston next week, and the 00Z Euro only has a light freeze to Houston this Thursday and next weekend. Are they right? I hope so. Time to get out of this miserable cold and head toward 80.

Oh no you don't Heat Miser! We endured the winter of your dreams last year. This year is the winter of your discontent just like Ntxw's avatar says. We're riding this baby all the way into March!

Time to work up some heat magic on Northern Canada...

[KatDaddy]

Not sure is this obs is valid but check out Victoria, TX - Light Snow

Victoria Regional Airport 07:51 Light Snow Fog/Mist 38 34 86 N 15 30.19

[iorange55]

Definitely think someone could be in for a surprise later in the week! As far as the arctic air? I have no idea.

[somethingfunny]

The models didn't see yesterday morning's sleet band in DFW coming either. If I wasn't worried about sounding too confident and jinxing the whole thing for later this week, I'd say we have a trend of under-done moisture on the models right now.

[wxman57]

Not sure is this obs is valid but check out Victoria, TX - Light Snow

Victoria Regional Airport 07:51 Light Snow Fog/Mist 38 34 86 N 15 30.19

Looks like a bogus ASOS report. RUC sounding for VCT has temps rising sharply just above the surface to the upper 40s all the way up to 10,000 ft.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW Morning AFD concerning the middle of this week as well as next week.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...

THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS AFTER TODAY...BOTH
CONCERNS INCLUDE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER IN THE CWA.

FORECAST PROBLEM NO.1...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF OUR LONGER WAVE TROUGH
OUT WEST. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE BEST
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT 15Z...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION GIVING SURFACE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION
STARTS. AS A RESULT...HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...ESSENTIALLY THOSE SAME
AREAS INCLUDED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING.

THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS THAT THE CANADIAN INDICATES THAT FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN AROUND 09Z...RESULTING IN A VERY SIMILAR SET
UP TO THIS MORNING ACROSS THESE SAME COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN DOES
ACTUALLY PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF HOWEVER...SO IF THE FORCING
IS GOING TO GET HERE EARLIER THAN WHAT THE 14/00Z AND 06Z NAM
INDICATED...WE WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TOMORROW MORNING SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE
TO ATHENS LINE...OR THEREABOUTS.

FORECAST PROBLEM NO. 2...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE EAST BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING A CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER NORTH TX DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY
TILTED AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BECOMING MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED AND CUTTING OFF INTO A
MORE COMPACT LOW AS IT MOVES OVER NORTH TX WEDNESDAY MID-DAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN OFFER UP SOME VARIATION
OF THIS SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SPREADS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE CWA AND EAST OVER LOUISIANA...THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS
SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS UNTIL THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. ASSUMING THE PERSISTENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION PANS OUT...IT SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASES IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THICKNESS PROFILES RESULTING IN AN
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF OUR UPPER TROUGH.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CYCLONIC CURVATURE
ALOFT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN VORTICITY AND PERHAPS MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVELY TO A NEUTRALLY TILTED
TROUGH. ALL THIS MEANS FOR NORTH TX IS THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD
SPREAD STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER
THESE AREAS. BECAUSE PRECIPITATION LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LEFT EVERYTHING IN LIQUID FORM FOR
NOW.

WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
WITH REGARDS TO HOW COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
SYSTEM AND HOW QUICKLY THIS TRANSITION FROM OPEN/POSITIVELY
TILTED WAVE TO NEUTRALLY TILTED CUT-OFF LOW TAKES PLACE. THIS
FORECAST MORE OR LESS AGREES WITH THE 14/00Z GFS SOLUTION WHICH
SEEMS TO REPRESENT A DECENT COMPROMISE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM
AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF. IF THE NAM
VERIFIES...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY MEANING EVEN THE LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST IS A BIT OVER DONE.

AT THIS TIME THE GFS OR NAM SOLUTIONS LOOK MORE LIKELY TO
VERIFY...SIMPLY BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS VERY WEAK WITH DOWNSTREAM
WARM AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...AND THE
SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH TX SO FAR THIS WEEK...I WOULD GUESS THAT
WE WILL SEE SOME DOWNSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THIS TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH SNOW
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT A CUT-OFF LOW SOLUTION LOOKS
MORE LIKELY THIS MORNING THAN IT HAS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

EXTENDED...MODELS HAVE ESSENTIALLY BACKED OFF ON THE BIG ARCTIC
OUTBREAK FOR NORTH TX EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WE GET A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TX SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL STILL BE COLD...BUT DID NOT
PLACE ANY ARCTIC AIR IN NORTH TX WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS STILL POSSIBLE...IT
JUST LOOKS LESS LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH VIRTUALLY NO GUIDANCE
BRINGING TRUE ARCTIC AIR INTO TX AT THIS TIME.

[Snowman67]

Just noticed that the NWS has a low of 33F for Dallas Wed. night, while Tomball (NW of Houston) is forecast to be 31F. Both locations are forecast to cloudy with a chance of rain. Is this because they believe the low will track further south and thus pull in some colder air down here?