Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cpv17]

Of note, beware of the GFS and FV3 OP models. The past week it's been correcting to the EPS and GEFS (ensembles) of lowering the PNA and perhaps even some negative PNA from the very current values after the 23rd. Thus if you see runs where cold is thrown off the southeast coast, is likely to correct itself in time.

Hmmm..that’s pretty interesting..

[wxman57]

EPS (Euro ensembles). I will say, collectively as a group our posters together may not always get right the individuality of events, but through experience we are pretty good at picking out major changes for upcoming periods when discussing wholesale change.

https://images2.imgbox.com/cf/5c/xOcAReoM_o.png

Heat Miser has been quiet the past several days. Usually on cue he would be giving us the pessimistic view by now. Good sign.

I appreciate his pessimism as it keeps us in check when we’re grasping for signs of winter life in desperate times...but these times ahead are far from desperate by the looks of it!

I prefer to think of it as realism. I do love it when it snows, I just hate cold weather. If it's not snowing then I'd rather the temperature stay above 80 degrees. I do see a pattern change that would bring colder air out of northern Canada by next weekend. I'd be careful believing models for specifics that far out, though. Time to increase the height of my southern Canada wall...

[weatherdude1108]

DFW airport's high today was 41F a little past midnight over night. Since then most of today hovered around 37-39 all day.

On Thursday and Friday the GFS runs had highs in the afternoon today 48-50F. What's a 10F temperature bust among friends?

I am in Grapevine today at Great Wolf Lodge for my daughtet's birthday. Great place! Cold here! Glad the water park is inside! We leave tomorrow back for Austin.

[Brent]

The GEFS mean is getting more and more impressive by the run it appears

[harp]

The GEFS mean is getting more and more impressive by the run it appears

http://i68.tinypic.com/2r2yg07.png

Has a dusting of snow all the way to the coast!

[Cpv17]

The GEFS mean is getting more and more impressive by the run it appears

http://i68.tinypic.com/2r2yg07.png

Snow for the entire Gulf Coast

[Brent]

not much support for the weekend(though I wouldn't close the door entirely up here anyway for at least some flakes) but a huge storm starting around day 10 looks like where most of it comes from

[harp]

The GEFS mean is getting more and more impressive by the run it appears

http://i68.tinypic.com/2r2yg07.png

Doesn't really show up in the operational model runs.

[Brent]

The GEFS mean is getting more and more impressive by the run it appears

http://i68.tinypic.com/2r2yg07.png

Doesn't really show up in the operational model runs.

I wouldn't worry about the op runs much... watch the ensembles, as long as they look good plenty of reason to be optimistic

[harp]

Yeah, the last several runs, it comes and goes.

[Brent]

The Euro is so close to having some snow in DFW Saturday as the precip ends, the 0z has one frame with maybe a few flakes

and yes I'm grasping at straws

[Ntxw]

1049mb HP on the Euro for the weekend. Prior runs had it weaker.

Lows in the teens, highs barely cracks 30 Sunday on the run. Lows in the mid teens Monday morning.

[Ntxw]

The Euro is so close to having some snow in DFW Saturday as the precip ends, the 0z has one frame with maybe a few flakes

and yes I'm grasping at straws

I wouldn't give up on it yet. Still 120+ hours out and storm is still way out in the Aleutians in the far North Pacific. If the model sees more cold air, the baroclinic zone will eventually shift south with it, the more dense it is.

[Brent]

mid teens Monday Morning in the metro on the Euro

[bubba hotep]

Euro EPS keeps the northern burbs of DFW below 50 from the 18th until the end of the run. Also, there is a a very cold cluster that gets DFW below 10F around the 26th.

[Ntxw]

0z EPS. Keep in mind this is the euro ensembles and as time goes out there is smoothing. Very cold period up ahead. I think a 1050hp+ system will eventually show up after the weekend blast. As impressive as last year's Jan 1st-15th chill was, source region may be colder than that.

[wxman57]

Definitely looking colder for next weekend, though I'm not seeing anything to indicate any significant precip in the cold air (i.e., snow). In fact, it may be so cold next Sunday that I won't be running the Houston marathon (again). I always run the January marathon if the high temperature tops 90. Oh well, maybe next year...

[Portastorm]

Definitely looking colder for next weekend, though I'm not seeing anything to indicate any significant precip in the cold air (i.e., snow). In fact, it may be so cold next Sunday that I won't be running the Houston marathon (again). I always run the January marathon if the high temperature tops 90. Oh well, maybe next year...

Poor fella ... I *almost* feel sorry for you.

But we all must give you props as you told us about a month ago that our weather would likely turn much colder at some point in the latter half of January. The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center are working hard to get you some snow in Houston.

[Brandon8181]

Definitely looking colder for next weekend, though I'm not seeing anything to indicate any significant precip in the cold air (i.e., snow). In fact, it may be so cold next Sunday that I won't be running the Houston marathon (again). I always run the January marathon if the high temperature tops 90. Oh well, maybe next year...

That is okay! Let's get the cold air in place and the snow will come. It may not be over the next coming weeks, but if we can just have the cold air we will be set eventually!

[bubba hotep]

The 00z Euro EPS has the coldest D15 mean I have ever seen for NAM! Holy cow...