Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Euro 00z has yet another system in the 10 day range that brings more snow to texas lol

[Ntxw]

Euro 00z has yet another system in the 10 day range that brings more snow to texas lol

And plenty of cold.

[Iceresistance]

Euro 00z has yet another system in the 10 day range that brings more snow to texas lol

And plenty of cold.

Did the 0z Euro show convective-like precipitation for OK and TX?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXubw.png

[Quixotic]

This amped euro run is getting DFW (into some mixing) with still snow in there. Oklahoma would definitely favor this run, gets more qpf up there as well.

No mixing please

[Iceresistance]

Trough trending larger on Euro?

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXubf.gif

[Ntxw]

Euro 00z has yet another system in the 10 day range that brings more snow to texas lol

And plenty of cold.

Did the 0z Euro show convective-like precipitation for OK and TX?
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXubw.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXubw.png

Yes, the highest qpf band is still in the main axis in TX, but it's a little better than prior runs for OK.

[Brandon8181]

Trough trending larger on Euro?
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXubf.gif
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXubf.gif

This would signal more favorable moisture to work with.

[Quixotic]

That looks like a coastal low sucking off our moisture.

[Ntxw]

The storm about a week later is basically a repeat. Long way out though.

[Iceresistance]

What is with this downtrend?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif

[TropicalTundra]

What is with this downtrend?
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif

Same thing I’m asking. Went from CTX gets a blizzard to “better luck next time”

[Iceresistance]

What is with this downtrend?
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif

Same thing I’m asking. Went from CTX gets a blizzard to “better luck next time”

I knew the Euro would trend north, but not this

I blame 57 for sabotage!

[txtwister78]

What is with this downtrend?
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif

Same thing I’m asking. Went from CTX gets a blizzard to “better luck next time”

Hi-Res models should begin to help tomorrow but as I mentioned earlier today folks this was far from certain in terms of snowfall accumulations and with these messy precip types, what you see on a model output doesn't always equate to reality. Some complex dynamic atmospheric factors at play here with these particular setups and so it's easy to go from "Oh my goodness we're getting a foot of snow" to "what only a few inches maybe" in the blink of an eye.

Having said that, despite the "King Euro" coming down a bit from its nuclear snowfall totals, there has been better model consensus tonight overall on at least the regions in play for some winter precip (sleet and snow). Still skeptical about the freezing rain aspect of this as surface temps are going to be borderline. More waiting and watching ahead tomorrow. See everyone back here tomorrow (later today).

[Lagreeneyes03]

For this initial front today, I feel like it overperformed. Seemed to come in a few hours earlier than originally forecast about 48-72 hours ago, and also, I could have sworn the forecast lows were upper 20's, IMBY near DFW airport it's gone between 22 and 23. OFCL at DFW Is 23 right now.
Feels like 6.

[TropicalTundra]

For this initial front today, I feel like it overperformed. Seemed to come in a few hours earlier than originally forecast about 48-72 hours ago, and also, I could have sworn the forecast lows were upper 20's, IMBY near DFW airport it's gone between 22 and 23. OFCL at DFW Is 23 right now.
Feels like 6.

Still about 3 hours until sunrise and I’m at 26F/7WC. Our lowest temp by morning according to models and NWS was 27F/14WC. The front did arrive about an hour early and there’s no clouds present, so it’s optimally cooling.

I have no idea if this front will affect what temp we’ll be at when the system arrives though.

[snownado]

As implied earlier, it's not so much that the EURO decreases precipitation amounts, but rather it trended warmer (thus considerably less snow where there's higher QPF) due to the quicker phase.

Hopefully, for DFW's sake, this will be the end of that and things start correcring back SE a bit and colder.

EDIT: Same thing with the 06z GFS to a lesser extent.

[snownado]

For Texas folks, you generally don't want a closed 500mb low showing up that far N of your area for an ideal heavy snow setup...

[snownado]

David Reimer's (Texas Storm Chasers) initial expecttions, FWIW...

https://texasstormchasers.com/weather/t ... -thursday/

[/url]

[snownado]

Interesting (from FWD)...


.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with gusty northwest winds
continuing through midday before diminishing a bit tonight. Mid
and high clouds will likely overspread the area tonight with north
winds around 10 kt.

Otherwise, some lake effect clouds bands have developed downwind
of some of the bigger area lakes. This has resulted in
intermittent MVFR BKN025 cigs particularly at DAL and ADS. We`ll
carry a TEMPO BKN025 at DAL for a few hours this morning as
additional bands of clouds are likely. There is also a very low
chance of some light lake effect snow showers/flurries this
morning immediately downwind of these lakes. We`ll continue to
monitor this potential.

[CaptinCrunch]

Tuesday's models is what you want, from that point it's just fine tuning for your local area. Everyone should see winter precipitation of some type, and I'm still on board with a 3”-5” accumulations across DFW. At least whatever falls will last into the weekend.