Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[TexasStorm]

With the models showing a high pressure system to our north east, wouldn't that limit the amount of precip we can get?

[KatDaddy]

That would be on the scale of 1983 and 1989. Lots of damage to fruit crops and pipes. With a noisey SJT we could see a massive Winter storm should this pan out.

[iorange55]

Short term for today DFW NWS

SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST
WAS TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NORTH TEXAS UNTIL NOON. THE REMAINING CHANGES DEAL WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND WEATHER GRIDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE
SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NEW MODEL DATA IS DEVELOPING MORE
QPF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
STILL IN THE NORTHWEST. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT
KEPT IT MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WE ARE STILL NOT EXPECTING
ANY IMPACTS AND NO ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOUTH
OF THE RAIN/SNOW MIX... WE HAVE INCLUDED SNOW FLURRIES /INCLUDING
THE METROPLEX/. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS WHERE WE HAVE
FLURRIES MENTIONED MAY SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH REGARD TO THE SNOW ARE THE SURFACE AND NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HOW FAST THEY WILL COOL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON WHEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED WITH THE IMPACTS THAT THE
STRONG WARM NOSE ON OUR 12Z SOUNDING /UP TO 12 DEGREES CELSIUS AT
930 MB/ AND THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY HAVE ON THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

OTHER THAN THE ABOVE MENTIONED...HAVE INCLUDED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA AS LIGHT RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED IN SEVERAL AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS COINCIDING WITH
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR.

[srainhoutx]

For those that follow the -AO data, this only the second time in recorded history (the other was 1985) for the 2nd longest lasting month long -AO (-3.176 average/todays data -3.991). Interesting days ahead.

[iorange55]

For those that follow the -AO data, this only the second time in recorded history (the other was 1985) for the 2nd longest lasting month long -AO (-3.176 average/todays data -3.991). Interesting days ahead.

You're a tease dropping your little hints in here every morning, stepping down your long stairway.

[Portastorm]

I won't say much more about this 12z GFS run over than it shows at least 48 hours of severe cold for much of Texas late next week. Yeah, it's mainly a dry cold but the STJ seems to get active by next weekend. Perhaps this will be one of those situations where we get an Arctic outbreak, a dry one that is ... several days of bitter cold and then the storminess (i.e. precip) cranks up. We shall see.

Happy New Year to all here and may 2010 begin for us in a snowy, wintry way!!

[srainhoutx]

For those that follow the -AO data, this only the second time in recorded history (the other was 1985) for the 2nd longest lasting month long -AO (-3.176 average/todays data -3.991). Interesting days ahead.

You're a tease dropping your little hints in here every morning, stepping down your long stairway.

Just trying to paint a picture iorange55.

[serenata09]

For those that follow the -AO data, this only the second time in recorded history (the other was 1985) for the 2nd longest lasting month long -AO (-3.176 average/todays data -3.991). Interesting days ahead.

For those of us who don't understand... What does that mean?

[srainhoutx]

For those that follow the -AO data, this only the second time in recorded history (the other was 1985) for the 2nd longest lasting month long -AO (-3.176 average/todays data -3.991). Interesting days ahead.

For those of us who don't understand... What does that mean?

Here's a good place to learn about some of the things we have discussed. Happy New Year folks!

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... ions.shtml

[Portastorm]

Here is another good place to read about what the Arctic Oscillation is and what it means in the general scheme of things.

http://nsidc.org/arcticmet/patterns/arctic_oscillation.html

[Tejas89]

Seeing that high pressure dive due south certainly brings back chilly memories of the 80's!! Everything seems to go to the east of us since then, and we just get the "glancing" back-door shots. Will be fun to watch next week should everything stay in agreement. Thanks for all the links/info guys!!

[Snowman67]

Long time lurker, first time poster on this board. I think I recognize some of the folks on here from when I was on the KHOU board.

Looks like the shortwave may dig further south than originally anticipated and give our friends in N. Texas another shot at the white stuff.

Happy New Year to all.

[srainhoutx]

GGEM conitues the trend. May see a shot at some wintry precip in the 4th-5th time frame prior to the stronger Cold Air mass. We shall see.
I'll edit to add a post just made by wxman57 in the 'local Forum'...

All models are in good agreement that some very cold air will move south out of Canada late this weekend into Monday and reach us Tuesday night/early Wednesday. That gives me a good bit of confidence in the cold air coming down here. But the models are all over the place as far as any post-frontal disturbances. The 12Z GFS is WAY slower with the passing wave than the 00Z, with the difference being dry (12Z) vs. snow storm (00Z) over TX next Wed. The actual high center over OK/north TX is only a few MB different from 00Z-12Z, about 1038MB for 00Z and 1036MB for 12Z. Have to read between the contours at higher res to get the true highest pressure.

How cold COULD it get here (POSSIBILITY WARNING!)? We could see low to mid 20s for lows with highs in the 40s next Wed/Thu. If the high comes south as the models are saying now, then low 20s is a fair bet. But it'll also depend on how much cold air comes down, something we won't be more confident in until 48 hours before the front arrives.

What about post-frontal precip? No confidence in anything this far out. This is certainly a pattern that COULD bring frozen precip to the Deep South. If it actually happens, well, that remains to be seen. Don't put too much credence in one model run over another at this stage.

[Snowman67]

GGEM conitues the trend. May see a shot at some wintry precip in the 4th-5th time frame prior to the stronger Cold Air mass. We shall see.

Is that for SE Texas?

[srainhoutx]

GGEM conitues the trend. May see a shot at some wintry precip in the 4th-5th time frame prior to the stronger Cold Air mass. We shall see.

Is that for SE Texas?

I try to keep my posts in the TX Winter Topic relevant for all of TX as a general rule. I think all of TX needs to keep an eye on this as we head into the weekend. Stay Tuned.

[srainhoutx]

Well the ECMWF is onboard as well. Things are beginning to look very interesting for next week. Cold air is not a problem via guidance. Also noticed and Upper Air disturbance of S CA on day 7 via the ECMWF. Portastorm, don't let Lucy look at the models please.

[Ntxw]

18z nam squashed any big surprises for N Tx today. Flurries at best.

[weatherguy425]

Ntxw- though witchita Falls is reporting light snow and 32 degrees, it's not that far off

[Ntxw]

Ntxw- though witchita Falls is reporting light snow and 32 degrees, it's not that far off

Yeah, but that batch of precip at least to me looked like it was weakening moving into dry air and new bulk is shifting south\east. Wonder if it'll be cold enough around here.

[weatherguy425]

well at least yall have already had three event or so!