Texas Winter 2012-2013

[WeatherNewbie]

This morning's sleet as far south as Austin might have been a surprise, but I definitely remember reading several days ago that there was a chance of frozen precip for the Metroplex Sunday night into Monday.

[Kelarie]

Getting thunder sleet/snow in Hooks (Texarkana). It is sticking on the ground.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

POW POW POW!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

38.3 here in Sugar Land. The ground is still wet from showers this morning but i dont think any of it was sleet. I think with the SW flow, the air up to 5k ft is warmer than freezing. I love the cool weather and rainy weather in all but where is the frozen precip Still holding out hope here. Anybody have data on what the weather baloons are saying about the weather above SE Texas? Thanks in advance.

Edit: You guys seen the latest NAM? 12z? SE TX should de take note. 850 line goes into the gulf with some precip behind it. The setup right now with the closed low looks similar to Feb. 2011 to me. Except we dont have the Extremely cold air. Does this mean cold rain/ frz rain for most of us in SE TX IF this thing were to even pan out?

[Snowman67]

Things getting more interesting in SE Texas.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
955 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH IS HUNG UP OUT WEST...WITH EASTERN TEXAS FALLING
WITHIN THE MORE LIFT-CONDUCIVE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JET
STREAM. LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH EFFICIENT UPGLIDE
OF MOIST MILD PACIFIC MID-LEVEL AIR OVER THIS LOWER COLD DOME...
MAKING FOR A COLD AND OVERCAST MORNING WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS.
THIS NASTY WEATHER WILL LINGER ON THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OF A QUASI-STATIONARY WESTERN U.S SW-TO-NE STRETCHED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PLACING THE JET STREAM ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS...
WITH LOWER LEVEL SATURATION (SUB-700 MB) AND NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR (OR SLIGHTLY BELOW) FREEZING...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MORNINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. THERE WILL BE MORE ON
THIS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE CONCERNING TIMING AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S (COASTAL LOWER 40S) AS MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH PERIODICALLY-PASSING PESKY LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE
(MIST). 31

[wxman57]

Model soundings indicate that the air aloft over the greater Houston area is considerably warmer than the air at the surface - up to 50F at a height of 5000 ft on Tuesday and low-mid 40s on Wednesday. Coldest air is at the surface, not aloft. Hard to get anything but rain with such a setup.

[ndale]

Austin nws has now put a 20% of snow sleet in my local forecast here in Pflugerville for Tuesday night.

[gboudx]

Some of you may know of DT @ wxrisk.com. And if you do, you know his reputation(met and personality) precedes him. But he has a good video today where he discusses the arctic outbreak, including the MJO's role in it.

wxrisk.com

http://youtu.be/kDDvSrvbjD4

[somethingfunny]

Some of you may know of DT @ wxrisk.com. And if you do, you know his reputation(met and personality) precedes him. But he has a good video today where he discusses the arctic outbreak, including the MJO's role in it.

wxrisk.com

http://youtu.be/kDDvSrvbjD4

LOL

It's very interesting stuff about the large-scale pattern and I agree with him. Big things are coming.

[wxman57]

Significant cold for the Great Lakes states and New England, but no extreme cold for Texas in the next few weeks, at least in the 12Z GFS. GFS doesn't even have Houston temps dropping to freezing the next 2 weeks. Euro still coming in now. Has a 1049mb high in eastern Montana next Monday. It's uncertain how much of that cold air will move south to Texas next Tue/Wed.

[dhweather]

I'm getting less and less convinced that we are going to see any type of arctic outbreak reaching Texas. My gut has been saying if one happens, its a midwest/east coast event. Of course I could be completely wrong on this. What I do know is it is seasonably cold right now, and should be in the upper 20's the next couple of nights. Also noteworthy, if any wintry precip falls Wednesday night, it will be gone quickly on Thursday with highs in the 50's.

[BigB0882]

We need that PNA to not go too positive. Are the ensembles still more on our side for cold. I know yesterday that the operational runs were outliers with the placement of the ridge.

[Portastorm]

I'm getting less and less convinced that we are going to see any type of arctic outbreak reaching Texas. My gut has been saying if one happens, its a midwest/east coast event. Of course I could be completely wrong on this. What I do know is it is seasonably cold right now, and should be in the upper 20's the next couple of nights. Also noteworthy, if any wintry precip falls Wednesday night, it will be gone quickly on Thursday with highs in the 50's.

Not me. Frankly, I would be very surprised if we don't have some type of Arctic airmass coming into Texas prior to, oh say, February 6th. The models always struggle badly long range with MMW (major midwinter stratospheric warming) events. Heck, they can't even get it right now within 12-24 hours as evidenced by our surprise sleet earlier today here in the Austin metro area.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro is in. Nothing extreme for TX next week, just another cold front next Tuesday morning. 850mb temps well above freezing across SE TX next week.

[BigB0882]

Why do I feel like wxman57 is grinning from ear to ear with his dream squashing posts? lol

[Portastorm]

Why do I feel like wxman57 is grinning from ear to ear with his dream squashing posts? lol

"dream squashing"?

He's just telling you what a particular model in a particular run is predicting. Like I tried to counsel everyone here the other day, if you let your winter hopes and dreams be based on every model run ... you're in a lifetime of misery around here.

[BigB0882]

Of course he is. I was just trying to make a funny.

[wxman57]

Why do I feel like wxman57 is grinning from ear to ear with his dream squashing posts? lol

I'm not grinning. I'm sitting at my desk with my coat zipped up, dreaming of the next time temps rise well into the 80s so that I can go on a 5hr bike ride without fear of hypothermia.

[dhweather]

Why do I feel like wxman57 is grinning from ear to ear with his dream squashing posts? lol

"dream squashing"?

He's just telling you what a particular model in a particular run is predicting. Like I tried to counsel everyone here the other day, if you let your winter hopes and dreams be based on every model run ... you're in a lifetime of misery around here.

Shoot, if any aspect of your dreams hinges on models, especially beyond 3-4 days, you are in for pure misery.

[Tireman4]

Why do I feel like wxman57 is grinning from ear to ear with his dream squashing posts? lol

I'm not grinning. I'm sitting at my desk with my coat zipped up, dreaming of the next time temps rise well into the 80s so that I can go on a 5hr bike ride without fear of hypothermia.

Umm sir, the sun is out where you are working....LOL. You can have that...