Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Yukon Cornelius]

He either changed his mind or I just missed it but during his final forecast before switching to the today show he through in a 15-20% of winter mix tomorrow night.

So, are you from the Wichita Falls area?

I live in Wichita Falls.

Welcome! That makes 3 of us that I know of that are from true North Texas. You, Snowinthefalls and myself.

[losf1981]

So, are you from the Wichita Falls area?

I live in Wichita Falls.

Welcome! That makes 3 of us that I know of that are from true North Texas. You, Snowinthefalls and myself.

Thanks! I don't have any weather expertise to add to the site but I have enjoyed the information provided by all. I've always been fascinated by weather. I love living in this part of Texas because we at least get TWO seasons, summer & winter. I lived in New Braunfels for 5 years and it felt like it was mostly summer with a brief cooling & warming period some called fall and spring but it was a beautiful place to live otherwise. I moved back to WF in 2009 and that winter we got the "blizzard". Have been hoping for something similar ever since!!

[Agua]

And to think we spend trillions of dollars fighting "global warming" based on forecasts for 10, 25, 50 years from now

Hey! We may miss today's temp by 12 degrees, but we'll totally nail 2 degrees warmer 30 years from now!

[gboudx]

It's a combination of things. Not too much model support, and frankly uninteresting runs overnight partially.

Second people are now starting to leave for their trips so postings might be limited.

Third, as mentioned the cynicism and pessimism often deters posters from discussing things beyond. As I said before, it's bled from the tropical threads and persons who posts something to discuss down the road potential can feel discouraged to share when flooded with "always 10 days out, not real etc etc." That's how a thread dies when discussion is not progressive.

I agree, things need to stay positive and progressive around here but when your forecasting resources are essentially worthless past 7 days, it is difficult to make these medium to long range discussions more than just pure fantasy. But I guess that is winter life below the 35 N parallel

Models will be models, always will be. What I fear is we don't end up in the rabbit hole that discussion will fall off as discussions become less progressive and more antagonizing. At the point what is the purpose of a winter thread to discuss winter weather? Might as well just do as the Florida folks with one long thread for all seasons if discussion is limited right? Next 10 days 70 and sunny, cold runs fantasy talk.

I have been thinking about this thread and how it can be improved, if at all. I don't have a good solution though. I had thought of having a separate model thread like we have for the Tropics, and each different organized tropical system. Some of the problem I see is that when these long range, fantasy models are posted that show any kind of wintry precip in Texas, it does spurn some discussions. But its mostly facetious discussion since everyone pretty much knows better than to buy into it. Which then makes me wonder, why post the model in the 1st place? But since this is the Winter thread, there is a legitimacy to posting it, despite the fact it will likely never happen.

I look at the recent discussions where the models were consistently showing cold temps and wintry precip in the timeframe we're in now. I remember posters posting how many runs in a row this was being shown, but as we see it doesn't matter because it won't materialize. This is another legitimate discussion to have here. But the nature of where we live, and how difficult it is to get wintry precip is going to make most of the model runs just something pretty to look at, and fantasize over. I don't have a good answer for this other than this is the nature of where we live, and posters need to realize it takes a lot to get wintry precip here, these events are not common; sorta like hurricanes affecting the Northeast. It happens, just not that often.

[Portastorm]

I'm appreciative of the thoughtful posts I am seeing about the nature of our Texas winter thread. I believe it would be helpful for folks to remind themselves that this thread is about the winter season and weather which occurs during the meteorological winter. For Texas, as we know, that can mean anything from drought to fog to snow/ice to Arctic outbreaks to flooding rains to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Sure most of us relish the thought that snow or sleet may fall on us and our hopes are raised and dashed when the models seem to lock on to something we want to happen ... and then they change ... and/or it doesn't happen. But remember that we talk in this thread about what is going on, weatherwise, in Texas this time of year. That is the purpose. It may not be the weather YOU want ... but it's the weather that we have. So we talk about it.

I wish folks wouldn't take it personally if stuff doesn't pan out. Why not learn from it? We all could benefit from trying to understand the models and their biases and why weather does what it does. I remember folks used to get personally mad at wxman57 when we all would be going crazy about some potential wintry weather that the models were cooking up and he would provide his professional opinion, often bringing us back down to earth. It wasn't like he was deliberately trying to make us miserable ... he was trying to educate us. To me we are here not only to talk about the weather but to learn about it from professionals and amateurs alike.

Anyhow that's just my two pesos on the subject.

[missygirl810]

I have always thought of winter weather in Texas, where I live now, and Arkansas, where I am from, as similar to a politician from either side of the aisle. It does what it wants, when it wants, no matter what they were projected to do lol.

[Texas Snow]

It wasn't like he was deliberately trying to make us miserable

Wait, hold on. So you're saying he wasn't? Whoaaa

[Toadfrog]

Howdy Posters! Been 6 years or so since I've been on the boards. In Round Rock and looking forward to some great posts and winter weather. Crazy so far! Was directly impacted on the Texas Coast during Harvey. Took out the family home and farm. Then the snow a couple weeks back here in CenTex and the Coast. Hopefully some of you great meteorologically brilliant minds will teach me something. Best Regards!

[CaptinCrunch]

I wonder how many people rage quit this thread like they do 1st person shooter games....

[orangeblood]

Here we go again re: 12Z GFS!!! The cold HP's are there across the northern tier, we just need these S/W's to dig into the southwest US and we'll have our storm. Models are continually showing this past 7 days and then becoming too progressive over time...hopefully, the MJO will assist to slow the progressive pattern down

[Portastorm]

Howdy Posters! Been 6 years or so since I've been on the boards. In Round Rock and looking forward to some great posts and winter weather. Crazy so far! Was directly impacted on the Texas Coast during Harvey. Took out the family home and farm. Then the snow a couple weeks back here in CenTex and the Coast. Hopefully some of you great meteorologically brilliant minds will teach me something. Best Regards!

Hey there fellow CenTexan and congrats on your first post! Don't be a stranger. The more, the merrier around here. And yes, it has been a crazy year for weather in Texas.

[Ralph's Weather]

The op runs beyond a couple days out are trash right now. The Euro and GFS ens are at least showing cool and unsettled after tomorrow through the end of runs. Maybe including a brief warmup about this time next week.

[stormlover2013]

Gfs is so bad!!!!! Right now

[wxman57]

It wasn't like he was deliberately trying to make us miserable

Wait, hold on. So you're saying he wasn't? Whoaaa

That was the old wxman57, now I LOVE cold weather (through winter). By the way, I have a challenge for you all. See if you can spot the difference between this morning's 12Z GFS run and yesterday's regarding low temperatures across Texas on the morning of January 2nd. Let me know if you need a hint as to the difference.

Here is yesterday's temperature forecast. Near zero into central Texas, 20 below in southern Iowa:


And today's. Upper 30s to mid 40s into central Texas, low 20s in southern Iowa:

[stormlover2013]

Really quiet around here

[losf1981]

Really quiet around here

quiet before the.........storm?? sorry, couldn't help myself.

[stormlover2013]

I wish u were right, but not looking good right now

[Brent]

before the cold rain...

[orangeblood]

I wish u were right, but not looking good right now

Late next week isn't off the table quite yet...Dec. 28-30th still has the winter storm potential. Should know more by later tonight/tomorrow as we move into the 6-7 day strike zone

[snowballzzz]

Temperatures look a lot colder up in Canada next week. A lot colder than they are right now, anyways. And more widespread. (to my amateur eyes, at least.) Winter has technically just begun. Enough with the negativity and loss of hope!