Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[BigB0882]

It's the 18z, who cares what that says? lol

[Ntxw]

0z GFS suggest a gulf bomber Another solution for yet another run. If this were to verify verbatim, it's an all out blizzard 93 superstorm.

[BigB0882]

Could you post graphics, please?

[Ntxw]

Could you post graphics, please?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Don't get too caught up on it, the GFS has been crazy lately and unpredictable. Just a crazy sight worth mentioning.

[BigB0882]

Could you post graphics, please?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Don't get too caught up on it, the GFS has been crazy lately and unpredictable. Just a crazy sight worth mentioning.

Could someone help me with that link? I don't know exactly what link to click? I know to go to the GFS but after that I am a little confused, way too many options, haha...

[iceman1994]

New to the site but have enjoyed the posts. When it comes to winter weather in the South I have a 24 hour rule. It is, don't get to up or down with model runs until I get into the 24 hour window. I did receive 3 inches of snow today and hoping for more Sunday night and Monday...we will see.

[Ivanhater]

Just looking at the long-range modeling. It looks like we are locked in a pattern of cold air being dumped into the Southern U.S and Gulf lows continuing to spin up. IMO the Deep South is in for another big snow storm. Amazing and odd pattern we are in this winter.

Keep an eye out on the trends in the models coming up, they are hinting at something, possibly something big for the Deep South.

First up is next weeks system.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS is screaming for a Deep South snow storm to bring in February

[Brent]

Huntsville:

THE 00Z MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM/ECWMF ALL
PROG GULF CYCLOGENESIS ON TUE...AND REACHING BOMB CRITERIA FROM THE
26TH INTO THE 27TH AS THE LOW HEADS THRU THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION. INITIAL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AREAS JUST TO OUR SE
AND E HAVING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW AND WIND THAN HERE
...IN NRN AL/SRN TN...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO STAY ABREAST OF.

Monday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

BMX HWO:

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Brent, I think there might be a couple "appetizers" in the short term, however, the first week of February could be the big one for the deep south this winter. We'll see.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian

[Brent]

Yeah Brent, I think there might be a couple "appetizers" in the short term, however, the first week of February could be the big one for the deep south this winter. We'll see.

Sounds good to me...

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS snow depth

[BigB0882]

I know that will never pan out but I must save those pictures!

[Brent]

12z Euro is a big Appalachian snowstorm Mon-Wed. Starts as ice/rain and then changes to snow from AL/GA into Western NC... this is an inland storm, not for the coastal areas. Raleigh is all rain(and a LOT of it, taken verbatim off the Euro). Places like Huntsville, Chattanooga, Knoxville, maybe Atlanta and Charlotte get a big ice and/or snow hit(may start as snow, then go to ice or rain even and then to snow at the end).

[Metalicwx220]

12z GFS snow depth

Holy cow KEEP THEM COMING! I would love 3 to 5 inches of snow.

[Metalicwx220]

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
353 PM CST Friday Jan 21 2011


Discussion...


Lots of things on the plate to talk about today...as the focus
continues to be on the evolving system that will begin to impact
central Alabama starting early Monday morning.


First...for tonight...an upper level shortwave is continuing to move
its way southward from the Midwest states...and cloud cover is
already beginning to increase across Arkansas and northern
Mississippi. Looking at forcing mechanisms...including qg
ascent...we will see a fair amount of vertical motion with the
shortwave...but a lack of moisture to work with. We may still see a
possibility of a few flurries in association with the vertical
motion across our northern counties...but that should be about it.
The cloud cover will save US from most locations dipping down into
the teens tonight...especially across the northern half of the
state. However...a few locations could drop to near 20 degrees
depending on the extent of the cloud cover...and lows may need to be
tweaked downward as necessary. The shortwave quickly moves off to
the east by Saturday morning.


Now to the busy long term period...a potential significant storm
system looks to be poised to impact the southeast on Monday and
Tuesday. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in good agreement until 12z
Monday...when the models rapidly diverge in their solutions. The GFS
is more progressive with a deepening trough across the entire
eastern Seaboard...and develops a surface low across the Ohio Valley
with a trailing cold front that quickly moves through Alabama by 12z
on Tuesday...with a few snow flurries across the north from
wrap-around moisture. The European model (ecmwf) solution is nowhere close to the
GFS...as it digs a longwave trough as far south and west as El Paso
Texas...with 500mb temperatures as low as -30c across Oklahoma. With the
trough substantially deeper...it triggers the development of a
surface low pressure area across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday at 6z...moving northeast to Mobile Bay by 18z on
Tuesday...and rapidly deepening. The low deepens to 1002mb in
Georgia on its way up the East Coast.


Based on the current track record of the European model (ecmwf) this winter...the
Canadian model with a very similar solution...and 5 members of the
GFS ensemble already coming in line with the European model (ecmwf)...I have decided
to stay in line with previous forecasts...and am currently going
more with the European solution. However...it is too far out to
completely disagree with the GFS solution...and have not placed all
my confidence in the Euro just yet.


With leaning more towards the Euro solution...this could mean the
possibility of more wintry precipitation for our area with the
rapidly developing low to the south. Temperatures look to be warm
enough for all rain Monday night into Tuesday...but we could be
looking at a changeover to snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. However...being this far out...and with model solutions
so far apart...confidence is lacking...but will bear close
watching over the weekend as we get closer to the event. We have
decided to include winter weather in the hazardous weather outlook
for late Tuesday to include the possibility...but with low
confidence at this time.

[bella_may]

Weather channel already forecasting some snow as far south as the immediate counties of south mississippi and south alabama. Not usual,but a good sign!

[Metalicwx220]

[Metalicwx220]

FREEZING RAIN IN MY FORECAST TONIGHT!! I like surprises!
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
645 PM EST Friday Jan 21 2011


Synopsis...
high pressure to the distant northwest will give way to a developing
area of low pressure southeast of the area tonight. The low will deepen
as it moves NE Saturday and could bring a wintry mix of precipitation to
some eastern areas during Saturday. High pressure will build in wake
of the low Saturday night and Sunday...with a strong high pressure
wedge to develop early next week. Low pressure will then impact the
area during the middle of next week...with dry high pressure for
later in the week.


&&


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
an area of Arctic high pressure centered in the Ohio Valley
tonight will slowly weaken as it elongates east-west tonight. At
the same time we are keeping a very close eye on a strong short
wave diving into the Southern Plains. That short wave will
strengthen as it reaches the northern Gulf Coast late tonight and
will trigger the development of a surface low along the baroclinic
zone in the area from northwest of the Bahamas and eastern Florida. Depending
upon how strong the short wave gets...how sharp the associated
short wave trough becomes and exactly where the surface low forms
and its future movement will have large bearings on the forecast.


With the back edge of the opaque cloud cover to clear pretty much
everywhere we look for temperatures to drop quickly with the dry air mass
this evening. Dew points just upstream are as low as the teens as
of late afternoon...and this will allow for temperatures to plunge with
sunset. There are some single digit dew points in the upstate and
Piedmont...but those are not presently expected to penetrate this
far south. While this is taking place as the short wave triggers
cyclogenesis over the SW Atlantic...isentropic lift will gradually
develop overnight with warm advection clouds to return back north
after midnight. How quick these clouds return will impact the fall
of temperatures...but we are anticipating that most places will be down
in the 30s when the blanketing effects of the clouds move back in.


While the initial upper jet will have shifted southeast this evening...a
secondary jet will move in late tonight...with the local area to
see upper divergence within the right rear quadrant of the 115-125 knots
jet. The upper forcing and the associated cyclogenesis suggests
that some wintry precipitation could break out late tonight...mainly in
the 09-12z time frame. However...the precipitation in the clouds will
need to fall through some dry air in the lowest few thousand feet.
This sets the stage for evaporative cooling...and we look for at
least a small chance of a winter mix of precipitation to begin close to
daybreak over the easternmost parts of the forecast area. This
would generally be near and east of US-17. With evaporative cooling
and surface temperatures down close to the freezing mark there would be
the risk of snow...sleet or freezing rain in the SC. But with a
little more of nose of warm air aloft and slightly higher surface
temperatures in southeast the precipitation would be more in the form of
rain...freezing rain or sleet.


On station meteorologists have considered issuing a Winter Weather
Advisory for the mix of precipitation. Given that there is still some
uncertainty as to whether or not the mixed precipitation will make it
onshore...and that the bulk of any winter weather event would be
Saturday...we have opted to not issue the advisory. The evening
and overnight forecasters will need to reassess the
situation...and a Winter Weather Advisory certainly could be
issued. All interests should carefully monitor National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio
all hazards for any changes that occur. And keep in mind that a
small change of the position of the low and its associated upper
short wave could mean a world of difference in the forecast.


There will be a sharp delineation between where we see wintry
precipitation and where nothing occurs late tonight. As a result...many
inland areas will not be impacted by anything more than some
clouds. And it is those far inland areas that will see the coldest
temperatures tonight...ranging from the middle 20s along the northwest tier...to
the upper 20s and lower 30s further east...except for a few middle
30s right along the beaches.


&&


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday/...
Saturday...challenging forecast this period as an area of low
pressure develops well off the northern coast of Florida early and
then strengthens as it tracks northeast well off the South Carolina
coast late in the day. There looks to be a trough extending from the
low back toward the coast which will be a source of surface
convergence while a sharp upper trough shifts across the southeast
states. The big question is how much moisture will make it onshore
and how strong the upper trough and associated shortwave are. At
this point...the 12z/21 GFS is most aggressive with the quantitative precipitation forecast and has
colder temperatures likely due to the significant low-level wet
bulbing effects. It gives 1-2 inches across the Charleston
tri-County area with the highest amounts along the NE portion of
Charleston County. Am not ready to jump on this one model run but
most of the latest models...including the 21/15z sref...do at least
show light snow accumulations...mainly south and east of Interstate
95. Will keep precipitation chances rather low and only mention snow
accumulations of around a tenth of an inch across Charleston
County/eastern Berkeley County...which should mainly be on
non-paved/elevated surfaces. There will likely be a mix of
snow...sleet and possibly freezing rain at the onset...ending from
the south by early afternoon...transitioning to mainly snow as it
ends across the Charleston area by late afternoon. Temperatures will
be tricky as much depends on the precipitation duration/intensity.
Went with highs in the middle to upper 40s...coolest north and near the
coast...but temperatures will likely remain in the 30s where
precipitation occurs.