Texas Winter 2012-2013

[wxman57]

Why do I feel like wxman57 is grinning from ear to ear with his dream squashing posts? lol

I'm not grinning. I'm sitting at my desk with my coat zipped up, dreaming of the next time temps rise well into the 80s so that I can go on a 5hr bike ride without fear of hypothermia.

Umm sir, the sun is out where you are working....LOL. You can have that...

There is no sunshine anywhere around Houston. Haven't seen much of the sun this month. Perhaps we'll see some sunshine late next week.

[Tireman4]

[
Umm sir, the sun is out where you are working....LOL. You can have that...[/quote]

There is no sunshine anywhere around Houston. Haven't seen much of the sun this month. Perhaps we'll see some sunshine late next week.[/quote]

Well it was out (briefly) here at Gulfgate....

[richtrav]

Why do I feel like wxman57 is grinning from ear to ear with his dream squashing posts? lol

I'm not grinning. I'm sitting at my desk with my coat zipped up, dreaming of the next time temps rise well into the 80s so that I can go on a 5hr bike ride without fear of hypothermia.

At least someone on this board has some sanity. You can have as much snow as you want up in Dallas as long as we're at least 65 and sunny down in deep South Texas (preferably mid-70s or higher but given the nasty weather recently I'll take the upper 60s and above all some freakin' SUN!!) It's starting to feel like the gloomy 2007 winter, which wouldn't be so bad if we had another 2007 summer.

Very glad it doesn't look like any major cold outbreak (like 2011 or worse) is headed towards the state.

[Ntxw]

Maybe we should re-lable this the winter of doubters! If its not snowing or delivering zero degrees its 2011-2012. I guess the chilly averages since the solstice says nothing. Cold is overwhelming the pattern, how have those warmups come along? Sure the next arctic attack may aim towards the east but how many believed it was even coming at all not long ago? It's supposed to be on the other side of the world right? . It's going to overwhelm, if its not this front it will be the next or the next, the factory is up and running.

Regarding Weds/Thurs I've preached this and will preach it again. Air Force Met taught me several years ago follow the wind vorticity. Wind vorticity means lift, lift means precipitation. I can't point out how many times models and forecasters get burned by 'surprise events' not looking at this they are too focused on surface moisture. Look at the Christmas storm, so many people wanted to put it north into Oklahoma and Kansas when the vorticity (even the GFS) moved it between I-20 and the red river and afterwards saying it went more south than expected.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah we have seen the sun for one day since Christmas at least. I too am thinking we will miss out on the major cold as well. The PV i believe will be too far east in Canada.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Maybe we should re-lable this the winter of doubters! If its not snowing or delivering zero degrees its 2011-2012. I guess the chilly averages since the solstice says nothing. Cold is overwhelming the pattern, how have those warmups come along? Sure the next arctic attack may aim towards the east but how many believed it was even coming at all not long ago? It's supposed to be on the other side of the world right? . It's going to overwhelm, if its not this front it will be the next or the next, the factory is up and running.

Regarding Weds/Thurs I've preached this and will preach it again. Air Force Met taught me several years ago follow the wind vorticity. Wind vorticity means lift, lift means precipitation. I can't point out how many times models and forecasters get burned by 'surprise events' not looking at this they are too focused on surface moisture. Look at the Christmas storm, so many people wanted to put it north into Oklahoma and Kansas when the vorticity (even the GFS) moved it between I-20 and the red river and afterwards saying it went more south than expected.

Thats what i was looking at this morning. The vorticity is actually quite strong in certain areas, but not a wide area. The low is taking a similar plan to the storm from Feb. 2011, except i believe it a tad bit more east. With the gulf being relatively warm still, especially compared to temps here on land, there will be moisture no doubt. I think the GFS is wrong about this system. Will it snow for us in SE TX? No idea, but in 2008 and 2009 we had snow from similar setups.

[jeff]

THis is not a snow setup for areas around Houston. The temperatures above the surface are warm through about 17000ft....no snow. There is a small threat of freezing rain if the surface temp is 32 or below.

[Portastorm]

Based on everything I have seen, I think this forecast discussion out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio (EWX) is sensible and well thought out. Kudos to them!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF THIS WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES SLOWLY MOVES EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH... WEAK
SHORT-WAVES ROTATE ACROSS TEXAS INDUCING PERIODS OF MAINLY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES INDICATE THAT A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...NO SLEET OR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUNDS AND LIGHT
INTENSITY. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SNOW FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING AT
THAT TIME AND WILL NOT MENTION IN FORECAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A WARMUP ENSUES AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. NEXT MONDAY...ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR NOW...EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

[dhweather]

The short version: close but no banana.......



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS DIFFICULT AS
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE OCCURRENCE OF WINTER WEATHER THREE
TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETUP ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A
DISTURBANCE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN IN EASTERN MISSOURI AND IT WAS
THIS DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AN IMPULSE
OF ENERGY CAN BE SEEN ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXPECT
THIS FEATURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF DEEP LIFT ON ISENTROPIC
SURFACES...IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE SHARP MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT IS EVIDENT ON 700 MB
THETA-E PLOTS BY 12Z. THIS WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION...AS LONG AS MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ADEQUATE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL
HAVE PROFILES THAT SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM...IS
DRIER IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND WOULD ONLY SUPPORT TRACE AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP. THE NEXT VARIABLE TO DETERMINE WINTER PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TEMPS BY
MORNING SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...AND A
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE WOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.
IF TEMPS ARE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THEN RAIN/SLEET WOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP/ACCUMULATIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE IS LOCATED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT FROZEN PRECIP
WILL IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT
CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT HIGH AND WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL HANDLE THE EXPECTED
IMPACTS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND IF COVERAGE OF WINTER
PRECIP APPEARS TO BE HIGHER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY UPGRADE TO AN
ADVISORY. MODELS...SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
METROPLEX...BUT LIFT COULD BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO WHAT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND PRODUCE SNOW GRAINS OR SLEET SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT. WILL MENTION SLEET WITH A 10 POP...BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE FOCUS AFTER TOMORROW MORNING WILL SHIFT TO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THERE REMAINS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ON A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST WEST OF THE CWA AND
REMAINING IN ITS POSITIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE 850/700 MB FLOW FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WHICH ALLOWS FOR NO MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA...AND THUS THESE SOLUTIONS FORECAST DRY WEATHER. THIS
POSITIVE TILT ALSO PROVIDES FORCING FOR THE 850/700 FRONTS TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEREFORE WE
WOULDNT HAVE A THIRD MORNING OF WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES NORTH TEXAS...IT IS
FORECASTED TO BECOME NEUTRAL AND PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR
LA/MS/AL...BUT THE TROUGH WOULD BE WELL EAST BEFORE MOISTURE IS
ABLE TO BUILD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER AND CUTS OFF THE SYSTEM A BIT SOONER
THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND GIVES IT A NEUTRAL ORIENTATION
BEFORE IT ARRIVES INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MOIST
ADVECTION/WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND RAIN WOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE THEN WOULD BE ABLE TO BE
TRANSPORTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF WINTER PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER GUIDANCE AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL ONLY
CARRY A 20 POP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHEN THE BEST LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS PRECIP WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. WE STILL HAVE 48 HOURS TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AND
ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE.

COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
NORTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S...BUT ANOTHER FRONT
COMES MONDAY AND HIGHS COULD BE BACK INTO THE 40S.


HAMPSHIRE

[Ntxw]

After going through the models from last night and today here's what I think may play out. After Thursday's system things quiet down for a few days. From Jan 21st to the 25th most models agree an Arctic high will come south from NW Canada. Various models put between 1045-1052 mb. The Ukmet and Euro seem adamant on this. Trajectory will likely aim for the lakes and northern plains dependent upon the PNA rise. Historically dense cold air will bully so it's still not impossible for a chunk to move more than expected down the plains. This is for the FIRST air mass that we have been following.

At the same time both Euro/Ukmet maintains a 1060mb high just north of Alaska as the Aleutian low continues to pump ridging into the region. Whether or not the whole piece comes down or parts at a time (like the first wave of cold) is yet to be seen. This time frame is beyond model forecasting time at this moment and would likely be around Jan 28th and Feb 2nd. Ensembles have been very consistent to follow for the pattern.

Courtesy of the MJO strong storms off california will arise as the wave moves closer to North America. These systems will throw fits around for forecasting as they are giving the GFS problems on where to put ridging. They are also a part of the subtropical jet . So the next 2-3 weeks wxman57 can pick his poison, misery via the arctic or misery via the jet

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Was Rankin Inlet one of the places you ghouls were eyeing?

if so this is being reported from there (and there it can stay or head down, via the East, to you folks ):

WarningsRankin Region including Whale Cove
2:44 PM CST Monday 14 January 2013
Wind chill warning for Rankin Region including Whale Cove continued

Extreme wind chills over the next couple of days.

This is a warning that extreme wind chill conditions are imminent or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions. Listen for updated statements.

Brisk northwest winds combined with temperatures near the minus 40 mark will result in wind chill values in the -56 to -62 (that would be -79.6F ) range over much of the region tonight and Tuesday. In addition visibility will be reduced at times in blowing snow.

At these extreme wind chill values frostbite on exposed skin will occur in less than 2 minutes.

[KeriCarter]

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-112-125-126-
136>138-149>153-165>167-150600-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0002.130115T0900Z-130115T1800Z/
HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-
WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-
JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-
LA SALLE-BOWIE-CASS-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-
RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOPE...PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...
LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...
MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...
BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...
WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...JENA...ATLANTA...GILMER...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...
CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...
HEMPHILL
400 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY.

* EVENT...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION...WHERE NEAR FREEZING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE.


* TIMING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO FALL BEFORE DAYBREAK
WILL BEGIN TO FALL MAINLY AS SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOME AREAS. BY NOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...ALLOWING CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN.

* IMPACT...RAIN COULD BECOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
MIXED WITH SLEET. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ELEVATED OBJECTS
SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD BECOME SLICK.

[angelwing]

Be careful driving down there, if you got chains use them

[PTPatrick]

Be careful driving down there, if you got chains use them

That's sarcasm right, lol? Nobody south of the mason Dixon that doesn't live in the smokey mountains has chains. Heck, nobody in Denver even owns chains.

[KeriCarter]

i don't think I have ever seen tire chains.

[Portastorm]

The 0z NAM is much more aggressive with moisture overnight for east central and northeast Texas. Perhaps some overnight wintry fun for College Station, Tyler, and Texarkana? Aggiecutter ... what do you think?

[DougNTexas]

Porta, I live 17 miles or so south of Kilgore. Snow I am excited about. Sleet and freezing rain not so much. But bring it on.

[Portastorm]

Porta, I live 17 miles or so south of Kilgore. Snow I am excited about. Sleet and freezing rain not so much. But bring it on.

Unfortunately then, you may not like what you see from the 0z NAM, assuming it ends up being right. Looks like primarily freezing rain and sleet for you in Kilgore with some minor accumulations. Could be a slick morning tomorrow in your area. Be safe and give us a report tomorrow morn if you can.

Link of interest ... if you go to it, click "Movie" at the bottom.

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=sc&model=nam&run=00&fhr=02&field=acctype

[aggiecutter]

The 0z NAM is much more aggressive with moisture overnight for east central and northeast Texas. Perhaps some overnight wintry fun for College Station, Tyler, and Texarkana? Aggiecutter ... what do you think?

The NWS out of Shreveport has issued a winter weather advisory for the Texarkana area. I pretty much agree with the advisory criteria in what does fall will be light. In spite of the light precipitation, there still could be travel problems as temperatures will be in the upper 20's However, I'm still keeping on eye on the ULL as it traverses the state Wednesday night. This is the type of system the models often have problems with.

[BigB0882]

I remember a few years ago when Baton Rouge got about 2-3 inches from a cold core low. I don't remember the models handling it well at all. We really didn't know what to expect until within about 24 hours or so. I am NOT saying that will happen here but it could happen for someone.

I have a question about cold core lows. I keep hearing that the air aloft is too warm. Do cold core lows take care of that problem or do they keep the cold temps at the surface?