Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

alright Atlanta's getting their winter storm(probably, GFS would be biggest storm in over 20 years)... when is ours?

We already had our biggest in 2010! A foot of snow's return rate at DFW is once per 40ish years so maybe in 2050!

[Brent]

alright Atlanta's getting their winter storm(probably, GFS would be biggest storm in over 20 years)... when is ours?

We already had our biggest in 2010! A foot of snow's return rate at DFW is once per 40 years so maybe in 2050!

Yeah except I wasn't here then...

I wonder if that snow band in Oklahoma will be worth going after... sad times...

[Ntxw]

Yeah except I wasn't here then...

I wonder if that snow band in Oklahoma will be worth going after... sad times...

I don't think this one is worth the chase in Oklahoma. Panhandle possibly 3-6", really windy and really cold. But that's a long drive...

[TheProfessor]

Yeah except I wasn't here then...

I wonder if that snow band in Oklahoma will be worth going after... sad times...

I don't think this one is worth the chase in Oklahoma. Panhandle possibly 3-6", really windy and really cold. But that's a long drive...

Ah, but windy snow is the best snow imo(when you don't have to drive) Snow squalls are incredibly fun to walk in.

[Brent]

Euro appears to be snowing at DFW Friday afternoon. Could be a dusting or so this run

[Longhornmaniac8]

Mabye I read it incorrectly? It said snow was blue, purple was a mix? My screen at work has color issues sometimes..... That makes me sad. I want WINTERWX!!!!!

Yeah, that was the Precip Type map, which I'm approximating to mean their evaluation of the air column. It's not indicating the actual presence of moisture, it's just saying "if there were moisture, this is how it would likely fall." You have to go to another model output graphic to see where the moisture is.

Cheers,
Cameron

[Ntxw]

Euro appears to be snowing at DFW Friday afternoon. Could be a dusting or so this run

There is lift, just got to find moisture and its cold so dry snow and sticks. 850s are also really cold, wouldn't take much qpf for some snow.

And still has flurries/fzdz/sleet down west of I-35 near Austin

[Ntxw]

Looking at the euro compared to 12z at 850mb, 12z had dfw -6 to -7C. This run is -9C while snowing. Perhaps the model sees that it will be colder/further south solution.

[JayDT]

Euro appears to be snowing at DFW Friday afternoon. Could be a dusting or so this run

Well this just made me a little more excited!

[JayDT]

Euro appears to be snowing at DFW Friday afternoon. Could be a dusting or so this run

There is lift, just got to find moisture and its cold so dry snow and sticks. 850s are also really cold, wouldn't take much qpf for some snow.

And still has flurries/fzdz/sleet down west of I-35 near Austin

Dry snow accumulates faster, right??

[TheProfessor]

Wow, if it weren't for a large warm nose(Still below freezing throughout the whole column) We'd be seeing as good of a snow growth as you would see in Texas. The Dendritic Growth zone would be fairly low, The 850 temp on the Euro is about -9 degrees C, the zone lies between -12 and -17 degrees C before it begins to rise again in the upper levels. If we could get the upper levels to cool a bit more we could be in for a surprise. Euro show .1 liquid QPF, Accuweather is showing a 5-1 ratio(this might be too low, but a little bit of upper level cooling could drastically change this). But on this Euro run it seemed to have about half a inch for a quite a bit of northern North Texas(including Dallas). I couldn't tell how far west the strip of snow extended, but it's at least as far west of Lake Grapevine where I live.

[TheProfessor]

Also the column between 600 and 800mb is very moist, this is where you'd want the dendritic growth zone to be so all of the moisture could be used up.

[TheProfessor]

The Skew-t for the GFS would actually be better if it wasn't so dry at the surface, there's also a little bit less moisture in the 600-800 level. The skew-t still isn't perfect, but it's a lot closer to -10 C. If we could get the GFS upper level temps and the Euro's Moisture, we might be pretty happy. The NAM's temp profiles is, not good, way to dry. Let's hope it's wrong.

I'm not sure if any of you have heard of the Kuchera ratio(Government mets like to scoff at it) But it is used when the basic 10-1 ratio might not work. The GFS' Kuchera ratio for the time that the Euro shows snow is 13-1 for Southern Denton and Collin counties(even higher north of here), 12-1 for most of Tarrant and Northern Dallas County, and 11-1 in Southern Dallas County. However as I said before the temp profile for the GFS is better for snow growth than the Euro. Euro is better for precip amounts. The Euro still had snow falling at hour 54 so if it had the same ratio as the GFS at 54 hours then the Kuchera ratio would be 15/16-1 for these counties. The Nam also has some decent kuchera ratios for this time period, it's just really dry in the atmosphere. The CMC actually has better Kuchera ratios but I can't see the skew-t for it on pivotal weather.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the current 700mb forcing tomorrow morning has shifted north to near I40. At 850mb the forcing has shifted south though I don't think the 850 front is what will produce much precip. The late day system still looks good for accumulating snow in the NE Texas with around the Texarkana area possibly getting a couple inches and further west areas getting at least a dusting back to the Tyler area. Also watch the northern extent of the Gulf low's precip shield for icing late Friday in inland SE Texas.

[opticsguy]

Been watching these episodes for quite a while. The NAM always seems to be too dry. My theory is that the winter moisture comes from the SW where there are no soundings and much of this is outside the initialization to be modeled more than 24 hours out. E.g, take the temps from the NAM and moisture from the GFS/Euro and cross your fingers.

[Portastorm]

0z Euro suggests a minimal freezing drizzle/maybe light sleet threat for a few hours Friday here in Austin. None of the other models are showing it. The morning AFD out of EWX is superb today in detailing the considerations. Unless the Euro is too warm on temps or precip starts in early morning hours, I expect cloudy and cold and nothing more.

Meanwhile my brothers in the Carolinas will be getting snow.

Have fun with your light snow/flurries North Texans.

Maybe it's time to move.

[Yukon Cornelius]

0z Euro suggests a minimal freezing drizzle/maybe light sleet threat for a few hours Friday here in Austin. None of the other models are showing it. The morning AFD out of EWX is superb today in detailing the considerations. Unless the Euro is too warm on temps or precip starts in early morning hours, I expect cloudy and cold and nothing more.

Meanwhile my brothers in the Carolinas will be getting snow.

Have fun with your light snow/flurries North Texans.

Maybe it's time to move.

If it even happens here either. It still seems pretty back and forth with getting snow or it staying north of the river. The forecast is slowly decreasing our chance. Was 50%, the 40%, now I think it's between 20-30%.

[bubba hotep]

The Skew-t for the GFS would actually be better if it wasn't so dry at the surface, there's also a little bit less moisture in the 600-800 level. The skew-t still isn't perfect, but it's a lot closer to -10 C. If we could get the GFS upper level temps and the Euro's Moisture, we might be pretty happy. The NAM's temp profiles is, not good, way to dry. Let's hope it's wrong.

I'm not sure if any of you have heard of the Kuchera ratio(Government mets like to scoff at it) But it is used when the basic 10-1 ratio might not work. The GFS' Kuchera ratio for the time that the Euro shows snow is 13-1 for Southern Denton and Collin counties(even higher north of here), 12-1 for most of Tarrant and Northern Dallas County, and 11-1 in Southern Dallas County. However as I said before the temp profile for the GFS is better for snow growth than the Euro. Euro is better for precip amounts. The Euro still had snow falling at hour 54 so if it had the same ratio as the GFS at 54 hours then the Kuchera ratio would be 15/16-1 for these counties. The Nam also has some decent kuchera ratios for this time period, it's just really dry in the atmosphere. The CMC actually has better Kuchera ratios but I can't see the skew-t for it on pivotal weather.

Ratios should be very good N of I20 and it wouldn't take much to get accumulations across Denton and Colin counties. That is the main reason I've been holding out hope for MBY the past few days.

[orangeblood]

Well overnight Euro and it's ENS members have become more bullish with measurable snow around DFW and the northern half of North Texas....Euro Deterministic showing over 1/2 inch @ DFW with an ENS mean a little under that, around 0.4 inch. Pretty drastic difference from previous runs which were showing almost nothing measurable, instability seems to be increasing enough further south to potentially overcome the very dry lower levels.

Some of the Euro ENS members do warrant WWA criteria for North Texas...if 12Z package comes in a little more robust, wouldn't be surprised for WWA to be hoisted for the northern 2-3 counties in North Texas

[Kennethb]

This setup is looking to be surprises for some and disappointment for many others. Lots of dynamics, timing, upper level development to occur for the ultimate outcome.