Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ralph's Weather]

Knock temps down 5 degrees and things start to get real interesting tomorrow afternoon in N TX. And chances are non-zero for wrap around flurries tomorrow night across northern N TX. Grasping at straws for anything interesting right now. After Christmas we can see what New Year's weekend looks like.

[Cpv17]

Looks like the northeast is the place to be for winter fun. What’s new? Seems like they get hammered every winter.

[Brent]

Yeah I wanna see if the end of next week storm is still there in a few days

Thats been the problem... nothing good gets inside 5 days.

still can't believe we were talking about sub freezing highs Christmas week and now its in the 50s

[weatherdude1108]

Temperatures look a lot colder up in Canada next week. A lot colder than they are right now, anyways. And more widespread. (to my amateur eyes, at least.) Winter has technically just begun. Enough with the negativity and loss of hope!

Just kidding.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Knock temps down 5 degrees and things start to get real interesting tomorrow afternoon in N TX. And chances are non-zero for wrap around flurries tomorrow night across northern N TX. Grasping at straws for anything interesting right now. After Christmas we can see what New Year's weekend looks like.

Actual temps 5 degrees colder than what is being shown or forecasting wouldn't surprise me at all, especially the closer you are to the river.

[WeatherDuck]

Is the front in the Panhandle moving any faster than expected?

[Ralph's Weather]

Knock temps down 5 degrees and things start to get real interesting tomorrow afternoon in N TX. And chances are non-zero for wrap around flurries tomorrow night across northern N TX. Grasping at straws for anything interesting right now. After Christmas we can see what New Year's weekend looks like.

Actual temps 5 degrees colder than what is being shown or forecasting wouldn't surprise me at all, especially the closer you are to the river.

I could see your area getting some mixed precip if tomorrow if temps are just a tad colder, the longer the precip hold on the better your chances are. Also if the shortwave tracks along the river vs north of it yall will see some snow tomorrow night. It will be a close call.

[Brent]

looks like just some 40s and rain on the Euro late next week

[Ralph's Weather]

Is the front in the Panhandle moving any faster than expected?

Maybe a tad ahead but not by much at this point. The front is currently just south of Amarillo. Along a Muleshoe to Memphis line.

[Tireman4]

I am just tired. Pooped. Done. Just give me highs in the mid 40s and lows in the 30s.

[orangeblood]

I am just tired. Pooped. Done. Just give me highs in the mid 40s and lows in the 30s.

Keep the faith...Euro is going in the right direction for late next week, slowing down the 500mb pattern/retrograding the PV back towards central to western Canada

[wxman57]

In other news, the DuPage GOES-16 satellite website is back up and it's loaded with many new sectors, sub-sectors, and bands:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like from Waco to San Antonio is in a Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow as the front approaches. Could be rotating updrafts.




Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from
Texas to the Tennessee Valley Friday into Friday night. A marginal
threat for a severe storm or two may exist across central/eastern
Texas, primarily during the day.

...Central/Eastern Texas...
A closed mid-level circulation currently centered over the Great
Basin will gradually open while concurrently shifting east/southeast
tonight towards the southern Plains, with the associated trough
becoming more neutrally tilted. Coupled with modest height falls
aloft, southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture
northward across parts of Texas, with surface dew points rising into
the mid/upper 60s over central/southeast Texas ahead of a
southward-moving cold front Friday morning. The combination of some
cooling aloft (ahead of the approaching trough) and richer surface
theta-e should offer around 300-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE during the day.

Some concern exists regarding the potential for sustained deep
convection within this pre-frontal warm sector, due to the
possibility of non-trivial convective inhibition aloft from a
dry/subsident layer. However, it appears a weak impulse or two
within the sub-tropical southwesterlies may yield adequate forcing
for ascent for isolated deep convection over central Texas early in
the period. Considering the ample mid/upper southwesterly flow over
the region, any such updrafts will have the potential to
organize/rotate, yielding a marginal tornado/wind threat and some
possibility for small hail. Therefore, the marginal area has been
shifted westward some. Mean flow/storm motion would likely transport
any such storm rather quickly atop the stable frontal layer,
however, thereby diminishing the threat of surface-based convection
and related tornado/wind hazards.

Potential for stronger convection may also exist farther
east/southeast later in the day, but continued uncertainty regarding
sustained deep convection ahead of the front (farther away from more
robust mass ascent to the northwest) suggests the threat may be even
more conditional here than over central Texas.

..Picca.. 12/21/2017

[Rgv20]

Currently 83F outside Looking forward to our next front!

[Brent]

Doesnt feel like the first day of winter thats for sure lol

[Cpv17]

You know you could always go up north to see cold and snow, but it’s not the same. There’s nothing better than seeing snow at your own home. It’s something very special.

[bubba hotep]

I wish u were right, but not looking good right now

Late next week isn't off the table quite yet...Dec. 28-30th still has the winter storm potential. Should know more by later tonight/tomorrow as we move into the 6-7 day strike zone

That has been the timeframe that I have been sticking to all along and was only mildly interested in the system tomorrow. The GFS has the system, Euro has it but is too progressive but does bring down very cold air. It is our best chance in years here in N. TX.

[srainhoutx]

Cold New Years Eve? The ECMWF roll of the dice today say maybe with a 1054 High over Wyoming. Any takers?

[Brent]

You know you could always go up north to see cold and snow, but it’s not the same. There’s nothing better than seeing snow at your own home. It’s something very special.

Yeah I am going to Chicago in under 3 weeks but it still wont be the same up there

[dhweather]

In other news, the DuPage GOES-16 satellite website is back up and it's loaded with many new sectors, sub-sectors, and bands:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

That's sexy - Goes 16 is to Weather Satellites as High Def digital was to Analog TV.