Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

Man, I may hit 28-29. Temp is skyrocketing.

Now is about peak of day. 28-29 might be a stretch but low-mid 20s could do. There is a little CAA going on so it shouldn't get out of hand. But if it stays clear then tonight will be optimal radiational cooling with HP overhead.

[bubba hotep]

FWD tweaking the grids. Noticed that my point forecast low for Wednesday morning has been rolled back from 18F to 13F.

[Cpv17]

Where’s orangeblood at with a positive long range post?

[Ntxw]

Where’s orangeblood at with a positive long range post?

Not orangeblood but...the next wholesale favorable 500mb pattern is towards the last days of January and early Feb. MJO movement through 5-6-7 is mild until the latter part where an Alaskan Western NA ridge connect. This will be favorable for fluky deep south/gulf coast wintry weather.

Anomalous cold should reappear in S-Central Canada and northern Us by then.

[Ralph's Weather]

NWS with the huge adjustment to afternoon temps here from 25 to 17F. We are going to go over 50 hours consecutive without temps >20F. Today will set the low max for the date which was 33, temp reached 19 early this morning before falling into mid teens for the afternoon. Today will be just the 4th Jan day ever on record in Tyler with a sub 20 high. Tomorrow has a good chance for the record low of 15 with a forecast of 12. Tomorrow has a shot at the record low max of 26 with forecast of 26. If the next front has can take better aim straight down the Plains the Sat record low max of 27 is reachable.

[Itryatgolf]

Where’s orangeblood at with a positive long range post?

Not orangeblood but...the next wholesale favorable 500mb pattern is towards the last days of January and early Feb. MJO movement through 5-6-7 is mild until the latter part where an Alaskan Western NA ridge connect. This will be favorable for fluky deep south/gulf coast wintry weather.


Anomalous cold should reappear in S-Central Canada and northern Us by then.

Do you think we will have a few more opportunities at wintry weather this winter or a pattern that favors such a setup? Just curious

[Ntxw]

Where’s orangeblood at with a positive long range post?

Not orangeblood but...the next wholesale favorable 500mb pattern is towards the last days of January and early Feb. MJO movement through 5-6-7 is mild until the latter part where an Alaskan Western NA ridge connect. This will be favorable for fluky deep south/gulf coast wintry weather.


Anomalous cold should reappear in S-Central Canada and northern Us by then.

Do you think we will have a few more opportunities at wintry weather this winter or a pattern that favors such a setup? Just curious

More than likely. It's what El Ninos do. Warm Dec, cold Jan and Feb. Several more chances I think. In any El Nino concern is lack of true cold, but we have dismissed that this year.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at January records for Tyler, this will go down as the coldest multiday outbreak since 1962. The last sub 20 degree high in Jan here was 1963.

[Cpv17]

Not orangeblood but...the next wholesale favorable 500mb pattern is towards the last days of January and early Feb. MJO movement through 5-6-7 is mild until the latter part where an Alaskan Western NA ridge connect. This will be favorable for fluky deep south/gulf coast wintry weather.


Anomalous cold should reappear in S-Central Canada and northern Us by then.

Do you think we will have a few more opportunities at wintry weather this winter or a pattern that favors such a setup? Just curious

More than likely. It's what El Ninos do. Warm Dec, cold Jan and Feb. Several more chances I think. In any El Nino concern is lack of true cold, but we have dismissed that this year.

From the beginning of December I’ve been reading what Cosgrove has been saying and all along he’s made it seem like the biggest event was coming late January into February.

[Itryatgolf]

Not orangeblood but...the next wholesale favorable 500mb pattern is towards the last days of January and early Feb. MJO movement through 5-6-7 is mild until the latter part where an Alaskan Western NA ridge connect. This will be favorable for fluky deep south/gulf coast wintry weather.


Anomalous cold should reappear in S-Central Canada and northern Us by then.

Do you think we will have a few more opportunities at wintry weather this winter or a pattern that favors such a setup? Just curious

More than likely. It's what El Ninos do. Warm Dec, cold Jan and Feb. Several more chances I think. In any El Nino concern is lack of true cold, but we have dismissed that this year.

I definitely hope so. I ended up with just over half a foot from this event. I have a feeling the trough may stay out west because of the -pdo but could be wrong. It's fun tracking opportunities for winter weather here. Need lots of timing

[Cpv17]

Boy those precipitation forecasts today from the CPC have gone bonkers

[Ntxw]

Oh and DFW's January snow drought has come to an end .

[Texas Snowman]

Oh and DFW's January snow drought has come to an end .

Glad to hear that. We had enough light snow to dust the ground and windshields here in Denison, but that was it. Congrats to everyone who saw some snow with this system!

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like so far FW, Dallas and Keller are closed tomorrow that I know of…sure lots of others.

Sounds like primarily due to cold in DFW.

No word from my district, EM Saginaw. Moved from Keller this year.

Edit to add my temp is dropping after barely getting to 26.

[rwfromkansas]

Steve McCauley update:

“ the upper-air disturbance that passed overhead was a little stronger than expected, that does not account for the enhanced snowfall we saw, especially in the western half of north Texas.
There was an unexpected jump in relative humidity overnight which prevented the snowflakes from sublimating (i.e., disappearing) and thus they were able to pile up significantly more than anticipated.
Had the humidity stayed low, this would not have happened.
So where did this added humidity come from? It appears some of it came from area lakes.
As many of you have noted in the comments, there also appears to have been a "lake effect" that enhanced the snow potential. On satellite imagery and radar you could see "cloud streamers" coming off all of north Texas lakes. Snow clouds even streamed into the Metroplex from as far away as Lake Texhoma!”

[txtwister78]

Good signal from the 18z GFS (at least for now) which aligns more with the Euro and its ensemble at bringing some welcome rainfall to SC TX where it's still needed. Hopefully we can get these amounts to verify beginning Sunday into next week.

[Brent]

Our high was 14 after a high of 6 yesterday with a low of -3 this morning. This cold has been incredible up here

Oh and even if we have a brief break the rest of the month im sure February will have a setup at some point

[Lagreeneyes03]

Steve McCauley update:

“ the upper-air disturbance that passed overhead was a little stronger than expected, that does not account for the enhanced snowfall we saw, especially in the western half of north Texas.
There was an unexpected jump in relative humidity overnight which prevented the snowflakes from sublimating (i.e., disappearing) and thus they were able to pile up significantly more than anticipated.
Had the humidity stayed low, this would not have happened.
So where did this added humidity come from? It appears some of it came from area lakes.
As many of you have noted in the comments, there also appears to have been a "lake effect" that enhanced the snow potential. On satellite imagery and radar you could see "cloud streamers" coming off all of north Texas lakes. Snow clouds even streamed into the Metroplex from as far away as Lake Texhoma!”

So if we dig MORE Lakes

[Cpv17]

Our high was 14 after a high of 6 yesterday with a low of -3 this morning. This cold has been incredible up here

Oh and even if we have a brief break the rest of the month im sure February will have a setup at some point

Late January into February could be wild.

[rwfromkansas]

My school is open tomorrow, ugh. One of the few along with Northwest and Carroll staying open. So much for the ERCOT call etc. Parents are pissed on social media.