Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[txagwxman]

ECMWF 2m temps are near 5F DFW next Friday with 18F Houston. ECMWF has been overdoing the cold.
GFS probably more realistic teens DFW/low 20s Houston this Friday, although I would prefer the milder GEM.

I hope it is more moderate like the GEM suggests, otherwise it maybe a pipe buster.

in 1983, we had 1-3" of snow east side of Houston in some snow burst...

No snow DFW yesterday, boundary layer 950 to 1000 mb were too warm, just drizzle. GFS op was a little too cold.

In the excitement of watching the guidance that some may feel, we need to remember it's been a long time since our part of the world has seen such an event. If guidance is correct we may have more issues than many have experienced before. Going to be a long and ineresting week. We'll also need to watch how the Upper Air feature exits the Great Basin and where it tracks as well as any STJ activity that might be involved. This situation should be followed closely IMHO.

I don't think it is that unusual...it has just been a while...1990 Dec was the last serious Arctic outbreak into Texas I can remember with lows to 16F IAH. Of course there was 1989 (7F IAH). 1996 it was 14F in College Station...when I was there. We haven't seen teens since 1996 at IAH. Long overdue.

[Portastorm]

Another thing to keep in mind: source regions. Let's keep an eye on the temps from where this air is coming from. Another day of the models showing the same scenario and we can lock in to the certainty of the frontal passage. The next logical question is source regions of air.

BTW, if the 0z Euro verified, high temperatures in Austin next Friday would be in the low 20s! My kicking shoes would be frozen!

[txagwxman]

Another thing to keep in mind: source regions. Let's keep an eye on the temps from where this air is coming from. Another day of the models showing the same scenario and we can lock in to the certainty of the frontal passage. The next logical question is source regions of air.

BTW, if the 0z Euro verified, high temperatures in Austin next Friday would be in the low 20s! My kicking shoes would be frozen!

In Dec 1983, the high in Houston was 27F after a low of 11. I don't think you will see high in the low 20s in Austin, that is almost unheard of. The current cold over the NW Territories is in the -20s to -10s.

[Portastorm]

Another thing to keep in mind: source regions. Let's keep an eye on the temps from where this air is coming from. Another day of the models showing the same scenario and we can lock in to the certainty of the frontal passage. The next logical question is source regions of air.

BTW, if the 0z Euro verified, high temperatures in Austin next Friday would be in the low 20s! My kicking shoes would be frozen!

In Dec 1983, the high in Houston was 27F after a low of 11. I don't think you will see high in the low 20s in Austin, that is almost unheard of. The current cold over the NW Territories is in the -20s to -10s.

Thanks txagwxman for checking those temps ... in that case, I would agree with you that the Euro is probably too extreme with those temps.

I seem to recall that both the 1983 and 1989 outbreaks had highs coming down on the magnitude of 1050 mb or 1055 or maybe even 1060. I don't see highs quite that strong this time.

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF 2m temps are near 5F DFW next Friday with 18F Houston. ECMWF has been overdoing the cold.
GFS probably more realistic teens DFW/low 20s Houston this Friday, although I would prefer the milder GEM.

I hope it is more moderate like the GEM suggests, otherwise it maybe a pipe buster.

in 1983, we had 1-3" of snow east side of Houston in some snow burst...

No snow DFW yesterday, boundary layer 950 to 1000 mb were too warm, just drizzle. GFS op was a little too cold.

In the excitement of watching the guidance that some may feel, we need to remember it's been a long time since our part of the world has seen such an event. If guidance is correct we may have more issues than many have experienced before. Going to be a long and ineresting week. We'll also need to watch how the Upper Air feature exits the Great Basin and where it tracks as well as any STJ activity that might be involved. This situation should be followed closely IMHO.

I don't think it is that unusual...it has just been a while...1990 Dec was the last serious Arctic outbreak into Texas I can remember with lows to 16F IAH. Of course there was 1989 (7F IAH). 1996 it was 14F in College Station...when I was there. We haven't seen teens since 1996 at IAH. Long overdue.

Point taken. I also agree that this is not a 83 or 89 aimass we are talking about and have stated many times in this Topic that the pattern does not fit those years. Looking forward to your analysis in the days ahead.

[Portastorm]

In comparison to my earlier post, both the 0z GFS and Euro have the high coming down the Canadian Prairies into the USA at 1048 mb. Yesterday I think the 0z GFS had a 1052mb high. Good thing to watch as well.

[HockeyTx82]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2010

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2010/
AFTER ABOUT A WEEK OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF QUIET
DAYS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. UPPER PATTERN STILL REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE
THOUGH AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN CANADA. THE
BRUNT OF THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST BY THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LIKELY JUST BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME ISOLATED RAIN
DEVELOPING SUNDAY IN WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME...BUT WILL
LEAVE POPS AT 10 PERCENT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.

THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...AS MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR
BREAKING OFF AND HEADING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING A BLOCKING HIGH OVER
NORTHEAST CANADA/GREENLAND AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US AND
EASTERN PACIFIC IS FAVORABLE FOR COLD AIR TO MOVE SOUTH. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST CPC FORECASTS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US OVER THE NEXT 14 DAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO
FINE TUNE THE FORECAST BUT FOR NOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS NEXT
THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THU NIGHT POSSIBLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS.

[Ntxw]

Everything seems to look promising since almost all of the models agree some kind of cold is coming. The NWS is even betting on the cold and possible winter weather stuff as they usually never put it into their forecast almost a week out unless there was a good level of confidence. Extreme surges of cold air are rare but hey we're entering a new decade and we're long overdue!

[Portastorm]

12z GFS running ... through 132 hours, the high looks the same as it did on the 0z. Still 1048mb strength. Still coming down through eastern Montana, down the leeside of the Rockies into Texas. This run suggests frontal passage in the Panhandle by 6 p.m. Wednesday.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS running ... through 132 hours, the high looks the same as it did on the 0z. Still 1048mb strength. Still coming down through eastern Montana, down the leeside of the Rockies into Texas. This run suggests frontal passage in the Panhandle by 6 p.m. Wednesday.

I was looking at JB's vids regarding next week. One thing he mentions is that the models by nature try their hardest to form a low\storm along the polar front between the warm\cold air deep south into the gulf. But what they fail to notice is that the boundary between an arctic air mass and a local cold air mass has a tendency to generate a significant storm. Hmm...

[Portastorm]

I dunno. This Arctic airmass is pretty stout and is going to push far south. With that in mind, the subtropical jet is going to be pushed well south of the state. Doesn't lend itself to precip, at least within the first day or two of frontal passage. Like most of you, I don't care much for dry cold but that is what the GFS is showing.

[HockeyTx82]

How long does it show it staying around once and if it gets here?

[Ntxw]

How long does it show it staying around once and if it gets here?

If GFS were to verify we could go 3-4+ days without getting above freezing for N Tx.

[Portastorm]

How long does it show it staying around once and if it gets here?

The run is through 204 hours and the model erodes most of the cold airmass over the state by then ... so roughly what, 60-72 hours of big-time cold? However, the GFS has a known bias of eroding cold airmasses much too soon.

[gofrogs]

Alot of weathre forecasts i have seen have said snow in my area fort worth for wensday and thursday of next week. News channels, and NWS.

[Ntxw]

Alot of weathre forecasts i have seen have said snow in my area fort worth for wensday and thursday of next week. News channels, and NWS.

As of right now according the gfs, there would be some snow with the frontal passage, but no real major storm to put down a lot of snow as the cold suppresses the moisture way south into the gulf. Too far out to really know details of that.

[Texas2Florida]

TWC local forecast saying snow/rain for Sunday, then rain showers with a high of 40 on Thu, based on all the model runs and NWS, Hmm..I'm thinking not rain but snow if the precip does pan out. The broadcast personalities are talking about a setup for a deep south snowstorm Wed/Thu which includes TX..this should be QUITE interesting!

[gofrogs]

Iam sorry but what are the broadcast perosnalities.

[wxman22]

Iam sorry but what are the broadcast perosnalities.

The meteorologist (weathermen)

[gofrogs]

Who, and why is a model even showing it.