Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ntxw]

I know that wxman57 and I will enjoy the warmup the next 10 days. However, unfortunately, it looks like both the EPO and NAO will go negative later this month ... meaning a return to colder weather.

The -EPO looks to return pretty quickly. +PNA will kick in before then I think. The question remains how much the AO will help for storms.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

We still have Tuesday and Wednesday to watch before the advertised warmup!

[dhweather]

12Z PGFS looks progressive, no precip this week, but a promising system dropping out of northwest, down to near north Texas then breaking off northeast towards Illinois.

Promising for rain, wintry precip well to the north, Nebraska.

The potential might be there for some significant severe weather, Far East Texas into ark/la/miss , we will get to hurry up and wait, and watch. As always, models > 3-5 days out are usually wrong, but if the trend of a significant system stays, then we may have hope for rain.

[wxman57]

I know that wxman57 and I will enjoy the warmup the next 10 days. However, unfortunately, it looks like both the EPO and NAO will go negative later this month ... meaning a return to colder weather.

I thought you also hate cold weather (now)?

[Portastorm]

I know that wxman57 and I will enjoy the warmup the next 10 days. However, unfortunately, it looks like both the EPO and NAO will go negative later this month ... meaning a return to colder weather.

I thought you also hate cold weather (now)?

Of course I do! That's why I used the word "unfortunately" when referring to the possibility of cold weather returning. Give me 95 and sunny!

[aggiecutter]

These are the types of systems that on occasion can bring wintry surprises to the state. Shreveport AFD:

A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL EXIT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLOWLY MOVE ITS WAY INTO THE
TX HILL COUNTRY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH...ENOUGH SO SUCH THAT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE WED
INTO WED NIGHT.

[vbhoutex]

Heck after this last week in Houston I think of our current temp of 45f as warm!!! May have to break out the shorts and tank tops when the January thaw arrives next week.

[Ntxw]

ENS all generally look very similar. It's a high confidence forecast, thaw mild next week after midweek. Then complete 180 from +EPO back to -EPO

[Ntxw]

Something pretty out of the ordinary just happened to start January. Through the 10th, the AO was very positive along with the NAO. The MJO was strongly going through it's warm phases and very strong through the 5th octant which typically signals torch for most of us. Yet it was some 5-10 below normal and a very cold start for much of the eastern half US including Texas. The EPO overwhelmed the other signals being modestly negative. What beast it is.



If you followed the EPO forecasts from November through now, it pretty much tells you the story. Cold, Warm, Cold. This index needs better monitoring tools. It's so difficult to get good sources as few agencies actually have substantial information on it unless you have paid subscription.

[Texas Snowman]

Sigh. I may need to take a short break from this forum.

Why? Because we've had a fair amount of chilly air since early November (the mild December conditions not withstanding). But there's been nothing to show for it so far in terms of a big winter storm in Texas.

This week, it would appear that our beloved Portastorm has gone back to the dark side (again).

And the Dallas Cowboys lost today in heartbreaking fashion.

Sigh. Again.

[orangeblood]

I know that wxman57 and I will enjoy the warmup the next 10 days. However, unfortunately, it looks like both the EPO and NAO will go negative later this month ... meaning a return to colder weather.

The -EPO looks to return pretty quickly. +PNA will kick in before then I think. The question remains how much the AO will help for storms.

Need desperately for the AO to tank, these airmasses are wimpy in comparison to some of the analog years we were looking at....it seems the - AO is what's been missing to really get this winter crankin!!! Not going to get too excited until I see the downward trend....

[weatherdude1108]

We received over an inch of rain from this weekend's freezing precip and last night's chilly thunderstorms. It's not snow, but I'll take the liquid gold!

[gatorcane]

I know that wxman57 and I will enjoy the warmup the next 10 days. However, unfortunately, it looks like both the EPO and NAO will go negative later this month ... meaning a return to colder weather.

The -EPO looks to return pretty quickly. +PNA will kick in before then I think. The question remains how much the AO will help for storms.

Need desperately for the AO to tank, these airmasses are wimpy in comparison to some of the analog years we were looking at....it seems the - AO is what's been missing to really get this winter crankin!!! Not going to get too excited until I see the downward trend....

Long-range GFS sniffing out a possible pattern change that brings another very cold arctic airmass into the lower 48 the last week of this month. Let's see if future GFS model runs continue to show this or not as it is super long-range. The GFS model did pretty well with detecting the last pattern change well in advance that brought the severe cold to much of the lower 48 the first week of January.

[Portastorm]

There was online chatter this weekend from a couple of pro mets who specialize in medium to long range forecasting indicating a significant pattern change late month. In fact, Michael Ventrice from WSI tweeted that the projected MJO indices were unparalleled in terms of an analog. In other words, they haven't seen this type/strength of MJO in 50 years or more. The MJO is progged to be very strong and would usher in very cold air for the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. We shall see.

I would hate that ... you know me ... I love warm weather.

[Ntxw]

3 more days of raw, chilly weather then wxman57 takes over. Im noticing models are showing extensive cloud cover to start the thaw. If thats the case lows would be higher and highs would be a little lower. -EPO tank is likely to end the thaw the end of next week. If we avoid any 70s (with clouds, I doubt that happens) the negative departures could make this a top 10 cold January.

[BigB0882]

:uarrow:

There was online chatter this weekend from a couple of pro mets who specialize in medium to long range forecasting indicating a significant pattern change late month. In fact, Michael Ventrice from WSI tweeted that the projected MJO indices were unparalleled in terms of an analog. In other words, they haven't seen this type/strength of MJO in 50 years or more. The MJO is progged to be very strong and would usher in very cold air for the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. We shall see.

I would hate that ... you know me ... I love warm weather.

Well the GFS long range is cold for the WESTERN 2/3 of the country. That darn southeast ridge would have us over here torching. I am so sick of that ridge. GO AWAY!

I hope your post is right and that the cold can funnel all the way down to Florida. so we all get a chance at something. But I suppose if we don't get any snow out of it, I'd rather be warm. I don't really like the cold. I hate it, actually. I just love snow, sleet, freezing rain! Give them all to me. The problem is, you can't have those without the cold.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 14Z RAP is showing a narrow band of mixed precipitation developing across western Texas and moving east-northeastward into northern Texas this evening. The HRRR is also showing signs of this band developing at the end of its range.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow:

There was online chatter this weekend from a couple of pro mets who specialize in medium to long range forecasting indicating a significant pattern change late month. In fact, Michael Ventrice from WSI tweeted that the projected MJO indices were unparalleled in terms of an analog. In other words, they haven't seen this type/strength of MJO in 50 years or more. The MJO is progged to be very strong and would usher in very cold air for the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. We shall see.

I would hate that ... you know me ... I love warm weather.

Yes the MJO is really strong (currently in the warm phase for the US) at this time but almost ALL models project it to crater over the next few days....so I'm not sure where WSI is getting their projections ??

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS out. It's two weeks away, but still advertising an impressive widespread arctic intrusion into the lower 48 and Texas

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Can't believe no one is talking about the RAP and HRRR for tonight. I know it's not showing an epic or widespread snowstorm, but there's hope for some light wintry precipitation tonight across northern Texas (especially for western Texas where some banding may occur).