Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

Yeah. Its really cold on the models so anything you can get will stick and good ratios out of very little. I'd like to get into the range of the HRRR.

We always do best with surprise events when expectations are low

[Ralph's Weather]

Yeah. Its really cold on the models so anything you can get will stick and good ratios out of very little. I'd like to get into the range of the HRRR.

We always do best with surprise events when expectations are low

Ratios could be very good. Just wish the wish Gulf low wasn't there to cut off the moisture.

[aggiecutter]

I'm officially dusting off the snow shovel:

[Theepicman116]

So from I'm seeing from you guys is that there's a chance of snow or ice accumulation in the DFW area.
How I'm feeling right now:


But I'm sticking with my gut, the NWS Fort Worth, the meteorologist on CBS 11 and Pete Delkus of WFAA and my prediction is flurries or a few snow flakes but no accumulation.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Not sure when you guys up north are exactly expecting the snow, but its pretty close to the HRRR range. Keep checking there.

Looking at the last 5 days worth of runs and the 500 MB chart is showing the plunge of air is more direct into texas than expected. This should help, im not sure if the models have changed their forecast based off of this but its a positive adjustment.

[jasons2k]

Here is an update from Jeff Lindner for SE Texas:

Arctic air mass will move across the area tonight…bringing a period of cold conditions through the weekend.

Arctic boundary entering the northern panhandle this morning will surge southward across TX today. Temperatures north of this boundary are very cold with Amarillo currently at 12 degrees. Ahead of this boundary weak warm air advection is ongoing across SE TX with a stratus cloud deck having moved into the region overnight. Radar is showing a few light returns along the coast which may actually be some drizzle or very light rain. Cloud deck will lower and thicken today with patches of light rain or drizzle and generally lowering visibilities occurring by this afternoon. Not expecting much rain ahead of the front with moisture fairly limited over the area.

Main impact will be the onset of strong cold air advection tonight and a very cold Friday under cloudy skies, strong N winds, and patchy drizzle/light rain. Temperatures around midnight in the 40’s will fall into the 30’s during the day on Friday and likely hold in the mid to upper 30’s for most areas all day. Wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s are likely Friday. Air mass is looking colder and drier with each model run which helps to reduce the threat of any freezing rain or sleet. Will maintain everything liquid…and what falls show be light anyhow. Freezing line will advance into SE TX early Friday evening, but think all the drizzle will be over by that time.

Saturday morning low temperatures will fall into the 20’s over a large part of the area even with clouds and strong winds. Wind chills Friday night will be miserably cold with values solidly in the 10’s. May need a Wind Chill Advisory for our N/NW counties Friday night as values could fall below 13 degrees. Since winds will remain elevated freeze event Saturday morning will be advective in nature which tend to be more damaging than the more normal radiative freezes in this area. Most areas have already experienced a freeze back in mid December…so a freeze warning will not likely be issued…although the recent warmth of late has resulted in some vegetation budding…and this sensitive growth will be damaged or killed.

Highs on Saturday will be cold in the low 40’s even with clearing skies and as the arctic high pressure cell develops down the plains and into TX Saturday night…clear skies, light winds, and dewpoints in the upper 10’s/low 20’s point to a very cold night over the area. Latest GFS MOS numbers take IAH down to 25 and CLL to 22. Could be looking at hard freeze warning conditions north of HWY 105 for Sunday morning with several hours in the low to mid 20’s. This looks a little more questionable for areas between I-10 and HWY 105…but is possible especially as models have been trending colder. Areas that look to fall toward the lower 20’s for more than a few hours is where concern for any exposed pipes would increase. Will likely see upper 20’s all the way to the coastal counties.

[Ralph's Weather]

Not sure when you guys up north are exactly expecting the snow, but its pretty close to the HRRR range. Keep checking there.

Looking at the last 5 days worth of runs and the 500 MB chart is showing the plunge of air is more direct into texas than expected. This should help, im not sure if the models have changed their forecast based off of this but its a positive adjustment.

Yep, tomorrow night is coming into Hi-Res range. nothing real interesting at first glance though HRRR H18 does have precip further east into southern OK.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS continues to deepen/trend further south than expected...particularly the position of the 700mb front

[Ntxw]

12Z GFS continues to deepen/trend further south than expected...particularly the position of the 700mb front

Yeah, its looking better that NTX and NE Tx will see snow fall. Question is will it be enough to dust or more vs novelty. Small changes in temp profiles or dynamics/moisture can yield rewarding results.

[Ntxw]

Warm up next week is looking like it may be undercut for some. Near record warmth then weak front brings us down to earth

[weatherdude1108]

0z Euro suggests a minimal freezing drizzle/maybe light sleet threat for a few hours Friday here in Austin. None of the other models are showing it. The morning AFD out of EWX is superb today in detailing the considerations. Unless the Euro is too warm on temps or precip starts in early morning hours, I expect cloudy and cold and nothing more.

Meanwhile my brothers in the Carolinas will be getting snow.

Have fun with your light snow/flurries North Texans.

Maybe it's time to move.

Yeah, I'm not even excited about this cold snap coming. Cold, dry fronts, chapstick/humidifier weather. Same ole' same ole.' I"ll take upper 20s and snow/sleet any day over this.

[Ntxw]

0z Euro suggests a minimal freezing drizzle/maybe light sleet threat for a few hours Friday here in Austin. None of the other models are showing it. The morning AFD out of EWX is superb today in detailing the considerations. Unless the Euro is too warm on temps or precip starts in early morning hours, I expect cloudy and cold and nothing more.

Meanwhile my brothers in the Carolinas will be getting snow.

Have fun with your light snow/flurries North Texans.

Maybe it's time to move.

Yeah, I'm not even excited about this cold snap coming. Cold, dry fronts, chapstick/humidifier weather. Same ole' same ole.' I"ll take upper 20s and snow/sleet any day over this.

Beats 80s and warm, dry with AC going . We will never forget what wxman57 did to us Christmas week...always remember

Big trough in the west, SE ridge 200 or so hrs on the GFS with height rises in the NE Pac, we will not go out in peace!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'll take 20s and dry over 80s and humid.... 38 times out of 10.

[orangeblood]

The mid-month system continues to pop up in the long range...becoming more intriguing considering all of the eastern Pacific energy poised to finally come ashore in the 7-10 day range

[Portastorm]

Beats 80s and warm, dry with AC going . We will never forget what wxman57 did to us Christmas week...always remember

Big trough in the west, SE ridge 200 or so hrs on the GFS with height rises in the NE Pac, we will not go out in peace!

We shall hold on to this glimmer of hope ... we shall persevere!

[stormlover2013]

I really think Beaumont area/Lake charles area could see something....could be close

[wxman57]

I'm lovin' the above-normal temps in each GFS run from early next week through the 21st. Still no cold indicated in Canada for the next 2 weeks. We're definitely going to see a break in this harsh winter (that has lasted several days) after Sunday.

[MississippiWx]

I'm lovin' the above-normal temps in each GFS run from early next week through the 21st. Still no cold indicated in Canada for the next 2 weeks. We're definitely going to see a break in this harsh winter (that has lasted several days) after Sunday.

You need to move to Mexico and take your heat loving with you! It is above 80 degrees in the South 10 months out of 12 (at least)! Let us have some extended cold.

[weatherdude1108]

0z Euro suggests a minimal freezing drizzle/maybe light sleet threat for a few hours Friday here in Austin. None of the other models are showing it. The morning AFD out of EWX is superb today in detailing the considerations. Unless the Euro is too warm on temps or precip starts in early morning hours, I expect cloudy and cold and nothing more.

Meanwhile my brothers in the Carolinas will be getting snow.

Have fun with your light snow/flurries North Texans.

Maybe it's time to move.

Yeah, I'm not even excited about this cold snap coming. Cold, dry fronts, chapstick/humidifier weather. Same ole' same ole.' I"ll take upper 20s and snow/sleet any day over this.

Beats 80s and warm, dry with AC going . We will never forget what wxman57 did to us Christmas week...always remember

Big trough in the west, SE ridge 200 or so hrs on the GFS with height rises in the NE Pac, we will not go out in peace!

Yeah, true that. 80s and warm during Christmas was ridiculous. I would definitely take cold and dry over that heat-miser non-sense.

[wxman57]

You need to move to Mexico and take your heat loving with you! It is above 80 degrees in the South 10 months out of 12 (at least)! Let us have some extended cold.

NO! 2 months is too long. Maybe a day or two. Being a miser, I'm very stingy. Forgot the graphic on my earlier post about extended above-normal temps in the U.S. and Canada: