Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Stormcenter]

That's probably good news if you want to see snow in the deep south.
We all know "most" snow events (including the one last Dec.) were not
predicted by the models or the NWS.

[Brent]

Good point... I'm not feeling this storm AT ALL though. Going to be 60 on Sunday!

As of now looks like the typical crap that never amounts to anything.

NWS Birmingham:

THE BIG FOCUS OF THE UPCOMING 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THE THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER.
WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT RAIN WILL START SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL ULTIMATELY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW AT
SOME POINT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION
REMAINS WHETHER THESE TWO RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENTS WILL
HAVE ANY OVERLAP.

BASED ON THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL RUNS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS FAIRLY SMALL -- ON THE
ORDER OF 1 TO 3 HOURS...RIGHT ON THE TAIL END OF THE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT. THIS DOESN`T AFFORD MUCH TIME TO GETTING SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN AN WEST-EAST STRIP NORTH
OF A LINE FROM VERNON...TO ONEONTA...TO HEFLIN. EVEN THERE...RIGHT
NOW I DON`T SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING OR
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. PERHAPS A BIT MORE ABOVE...SAY...1200 FEET
ELEVATION...BUT STILL NOTHING THAT APPROACHES LOCAL WINTER STORM
CRITERIA. OF COURSE...THINGS COULD CHANGES AS THE COMPUTER MODELS
START TO BETTER SAMPLE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS.

[AL Chili Pepper]

It's like playing the power ball, you know you're probably not going to win but it's fun thinking about it.

Mobile NWS:

IT APPEARS FROM THE NEW DATA THAT THERE WILL BE AN
ABRUPT END IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY...QUICKLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY EVENING. THUS...FORECASTERS ARE CALLING FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END BY MONDAY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE SHOT AT SEEING THE WHITE STUFF. IT MUST BE SAID THOUGH...THERE IS A FINE LINE IN THE TIMING THUS FAR AND ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCE IN LOW TRACK EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES AND ITS POSITIONING WITH REGARD TO THE COLDER AIR. STAY TUNED. THE STATEMENT FROM THE LAST SHIFT SUMS IT UP FOR THIS PACKAGE AS WELL. WE
CAN ALWAYS POKE A STICK IN THAT HORNETS NEST THIS WEEKEND.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This is an excerpt from this afternoon's (1-29-09) NWS New Orleans afternoon discussion. If memory serves me well the same thing was said in Dec. before the snow event in New Orleans about "not supporting any accumulations". It should be an interesting start to next week.

LONG TERM...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN BEGINNING SUN EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NW GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MON MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE TS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM MANLY OFFSHORE. SOME OF THESE COULD STRAY JUST ONSHORE OF A FEW COASTAL PARISHES. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BRINGING LOWERED HEIGHTS AND A STRONG COLD AIR SURGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS THE LOW AND TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...SOME MOISTURE STAYS BACK OVER THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND STRONG VORT MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL LIFT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE BY LATE MON EVENING. SOME THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILE ARE HINTING AT A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN TO PRODUCE FLURRIES MON NIGHT. THIS IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT AND DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT MOISTURE THICKNESS IS NOT SUPPORTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

Stormcenter, this as you posted earlier today, is the second afd mentioningthis in a row. Even TWC has started talking about this potential as well. I am not holding my breath though. Seems as of now if the storm were to develop it will move out to quick before the cold air has a chance to build in. Our forecast is for rain early monday with highs in 50's then partly cloudy monday night lows in upper 20's. I know things can and probably will change this weekend. Would not surprise if low is a lot weaker if it forms at all. Anyway so far this winter snow has been mentioned quite a few times 4-5 days out only for nothing to happen with temps a lot warmer than forecast. Guess I just have to see it to believe it.

This is from todays AFD...THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRYING OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH...THAT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS
THE COLDEST AIR MOVES IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE FORECAST.

Looks like I was right. Models now are showing weaker system moving out really quick. These model runs remind me of hurricane season. Get everbody uptight and start preparing for the worst then nothing develops and only a wave with some rain moves through. Maybe if I keep being negative mother nature will get really mad and surprise us with the storm of the year

[MGC]

In any event, a welcome much needed rain. Hopefully this low will help out with the drought situation......MGC

[Brent]

0z NAM continues the shift south and weaker. Still looks like a narrow window for snow nearby but continues to trend away from anything very noteworthy.

[Lowpressure]

Why even have models this winter- thay have been worthless. I do not understand how they can get worse when the digest data each year to get better. Just look out the window. How come they are only correct with warm air and rain, but cannot seem to get it right with cold air and/or winter precip?

[Brent]

Why even have models this winter- thay have been worthless. I do not understand how they can get worse when the digest data each year to get better. Just look out the window. How come they are only correct with warm air and rain, but cannot seem to get it right with cold air and/or winter precip?

I don't get it either.

I am done with this sorry storm unless something drastic changes and I'm just about ready to be done with this horrible waste of time winter.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I guess this is it moving through south TX.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=5

[Daktar]

Well here we are on a Saturday evening and most everyone who was wishing for the monster snow storm are very disappointed.. I don't have a formal education in the science of predicting weather I only have the education of the love of weather.. I made a post a few days back about "HYPE". I have found over the years that man has not gained enough technology to look out a week ahead and make an accurate forcast. The problem is we have not become advanced enough to have real time data that can be sent to the super computers to make instant corrections in the forcast..Our weather is in constant change one factor will change a forcast..We are in the situation that all the data is collected compiled and enter in the computer system over a 12 hour period.. So much has already changed before the new model run come out..Remember the computer is only as good as the date entered.. I tell you (84) hours out is about only 30 something precent right give or take a few hundred miles as far as storm track...Now we talk about getting temps within 3 degrees over the same period I would say it is no better than 30 something precent.. Now we get down to 72 hours and the precentages go up to about 50% accurate..We get to 48 hours and we start getting a forcast a whole lot more accurate. Then 24 hours and forcasts can just about can be taken to the bank! The reason is "time" a small error in a 120 hour forcast is MAJOR an error in a 24 hour forcast is hardly noticed..

I seen several of the major providers compared this latest storm to the superstorm of 93! Now by looking at the newest runs it is clear that this will be a strong storm but it never should have been compared till hard data was collected and trends could be seen..

I will now make a statement that I am sure I will have some disagree with it goes as follows..The weather providers are part of the media. The major news outlets never ever report on good news it is always about death and destruction the news is alway negitive!!!! WHY is it that way??? because bad news makes a story that sells good news doesn't.. It is all about ratings that control the sponsers money.. In the world of weather it is the same way! STORMS sell clear skys don't..

You know there is very little accountability in making wild forcasts or HYPING a far out situation. You know I love the weather and I do respect some forcasters..However the truth is being wrong and making a bad forcast has very little effect on the forcaster..It is the only job you can have and wrong at more times than right and still have your job..

In closing with this long ramble remember everyone it is HYPE and will remain HYPE until the time frame is 72 hours or less..Just don't get caught up in it..

[Lowpressure]

You are going to like the 00Z NAM! 100 mile more NW, wetter and 9mb deeper!

[Daktar]

well yes that is a good sign however trends must happen we will have to wait for the next run.. It seems at this time here in the Tennessee valley we should see a little snow..Depending of the track of this soon to be low pressure along with a short wave diving though the valley area Tuesday.. If all come togeather we may see 1"to 2'' at best case I believe.. Really hard to call at this time along with the fact that this system will be coming out the north west..In this area it mean the moisture must cross the cumberland mountains this causes the elevation to ring the moisture out before it gets into the valley..Still have not seen the low forming in the gulf so everyting really remains HYPE for now..

[vbhoutex]

I guess this is it moving through south TX.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=5

Indeed, that would appear that it is the formation stages of the aforementioned low pressure area. IIRC, the low pressure wasn't/isn't supposed to be formed/wound up till sometime tomorrow, so it looks to me like it is just about right on schedule. Strength and track may be a whole other ball game but that low forming doesn't appear to be hype.

[Daktar]

Yes much agreed with the formation of the low..It has not closed off and finding a good fix on the center is still a problem.. we will have to wait to see if this system will begin to wind up.. My personal thought right now is that the low looks to be forming about 150 south of the Mississippi coast.. Now we wait to see how quick can the jet stream dig to the south..Problem is now the Jet does not have a west to east tilt..The forming storm will ride the Jet stream.. My thought at this time is that the storm will swing around a modified jet stream..I believe that this will be a slow turn around the bottom so this will allow the storm to cross Florida into the Atlantic..How far off the coast does the storm ride? Still has not been locked down yet.. I believe with the low forming where it looks to be a little north of the earlier runs.. This could allow the low to make landfall on the coast of North Carolina.. if so My area may see 1 to 2 inches of snow.. However looking over the given data over the last few hours I don't see the big push to the south with cold air.. my thoughts at this point all the large DEEP SOUTH cities will miss any snow fall off this storm..

[vbhoutex]

I haven't looked close enough to try and pinpoint the close off point for the low, but I can tell you it appears we have had all the spits out of it we are going to get here in Houston. Also have to agree on the Southern cities analysis per the OZ run of the models. All in all a good analysis daktar. This forming storm has been a confounder for those that want a big storm and all in all very typical of models performance with this type of weather.

[cycloneye]

Here is the low pressure in its forming stage.

[Daktar]

Good Morning all..Well it was a late night here stayed up to look over the data.. Early stages of a low forming in the gulf.. It is my opinion that this system does not have the upper level support needed for it to explode.. It is still hard to get a fix on the center however it appears that it will be in the south central gulf.. A few things I have noticed today is as follows.. visible satellite shows shows the cold air starting to push south out the upper mid west.. One interesting thing to me is what appears to be anti cyclonic rotation in the high clouds of the east coast.. My early thoughts this morning is will this move north in combination with the low coming out gulf. My second thought is will this cause the low to push more towards the coast? I also wonder if this upper air high may help the development of this storm as a high pressure aloft does with the case of a hurricane..?? However with the present structure of this storm tells me that it could be nudged around by other systems.. I will however stick to last nights thought and continue to believe this low will swing out across Florida turn NW into the gulf stream..I believe that at this point we will see this system begin to wind up..It appears now that this storm will be a fish storm.. It seems that the big cities in the NE will be where the major snows will happen.. My situation here look about the same as it did on my last post.. Dusting to maybe 2 inches this really all depends on how intense the storm gets while passing North Carolina. My moisture here looks to be coming in what the low pressure generates off the back side and a combination of a few short waves moving down the northern plains riding the jet stream.. I believe all the
big cities in the south will have that chilly rain..( I have always called a chilly rain a deep south snow storm)..Any way we will watch the system today an post later on it..afternoon all

[cycloneye]

Recon going on Monday.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011745
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EST SUN 01 FEB 2009
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z FEB 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....08-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. A63/ CARPS (30.4N 77.8W)/ 03/0000Z
B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK63
C. 02/1715Z
D. 4 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK PLUS
CARPS FOR A TOTAL OF 5
E. 30,000 FT/ 03/0200Z

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. A61/ CROAK (37.0N 73.0W)/ 03/1200Z
B. AFXXXX 04WSA TRACK61
C. 03/0630Z
D. 4 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK PLUS
CHAMP FOR A TOTAL OF 5
E. 30,000 FT/ 03/1400Z

NOTE: THE TASKING FOR TRACK A63, CONTROL TIME
02/1200Z FROM YESTERDAY'S WSPOD WILL DEPART TONIGHT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[breeze]

After a gorgeous, sunny 65°F day, today, we should see a "brief period of
snow showers" tomorrow morning. It WAS fun thinking about the possibility
of a big 'ole snow, while it lasted, but, I do hope that areas to the east
that have been in a drought get some good precip out of this system.

[Daktar]

Well no winter storm looks like it will track off the coast! Bummer..However I must say I was surprised today with snow falling! Started off as rain and quickly changed over to snow. It has been snowing for over five hours now.. Winds have been lite so the snow has been lite to moderate..Best I can measure is 2 inches on grassy surfaces with 1 inch on hard surfaces..It has been cool the last few days with temps in the 50's so ground temps have melted the first inch or so.. Temps right now 34.9.. Side roads are slushy combined with temps expected to go below freezing tonight this means a good setup for BLACK ICE.. Living in this area it is very dangerous because there is nothing flat around here.. Looks like to me that 2 maybe 3 inches total for the day so far..expecting the cold front to pull away slowly so snow should be ending soon.. Just look out side and plenty of snow still falling..To my friends on the gulf coast happy snow day..Off work looking out the window.."let it snow let it snow".. I still miss the smell of salt water but don't miss the humidity. "It's snowing that is so cool"..