Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

[Yankeegirl]

I cant stand this warm winter weather it just sucks....

[weatherrabbit_tx]

see where abc 13 had a high of 82 for tomorrow, it will get there being that bush hit 80*F today

[Extremeweatherguy]

see where abc 13 had a high of 82 for tomorrow, it will get there being that bush hit 80*F today

I agree. I think 82F is certainly possible for tomorrow. However, the 80s should end by Monday when more cloud cover should help keep us in the mid to upper 70s.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well, IAH has officially hit 80F at 2pm. This means that the news stations and the NWS were actually wrong, not right for today. This leads me to believe that tomorrow may also be warmer than expected.

I hate this warm weather in December!

Can't wait until next weeks front..

I'm not overly impressed with next week's front. I don't see it getting extremely cold, just back to about normal with no snow.

and I'm with you. I was ok with the warm weather for a couple of days but today I've had it, looks like we've got another 4-5 days of it. Ugh.

I'm not overly impressed either, but I am just happy that it should bring temps. back to more seasonal levels (or may be a tad below) by the end of next week. There is also a chance that if the low pressure tracks further south that it could be much chillier than predicted, but ATM I am not making any bets on it until I see more model consistancy.

Hopefully that shot of cold air around Christmas day will be more impressive temperature-wise. I am really hoping for a sub 55-degree day for Christmas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

One thing I am perplexed about in the Houston NWS AFD this afternoon is this...

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH THE
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE 500 MB PATTERN...EACH
HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE MAIN LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL HELP DETERMINE THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS SE TX
THURSDAY. THE GFS KEEPS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT.
BECAUSE OF THAT AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING...KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE FRIDAY.

This is not the case. The 12z GFS is actually much further south than the 0z GFS was with the low pressure area. So I am not quite sure how it has trended further north?

See for yourself:

0z GFS for Thursday morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

12z GFS for Thursday morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

The 0Z shows the low around the southern WI border while the 12z shows it on the NE/KS border. That is the difference of more than a whole state southward and would make a big difference in the forecast outcome.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the 18Z GFS is weird. It now brings the front in Wednesday, stalls it Thursday, then slowly sags it southward Friday with increasing cool air into the area by next weekend. This is different from the last few runs though (as they all have been) so it looks like the flip-flopping continues with the models.

We will likely not get a good forecast from any source until these models can come into more agreement/consistancy.

Here is the 18Z loop (so far):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

One interesting thing though is the 1044mb high it is showing moving southward by the 23rd. This probably means that the Christmas period outlook (days 8-10) will continue to look cold on this model. As of now though, those days have not come in yet.

Update: The model now seems to be showing highs in the 40s to near 50F for Christmas eve with clouds and a few showers and then it shows highs likely in the lower to middle 50s on Christmas day. The low on Christmas morning will likely be in the 30s for Houston. However, even this scenario could be too warm as the model tries to weaken the high to quickly (down to 1027mb by the time it reaches TX just after Christmas). If the high doesn't weaken as qucikly or as much, then even cooler air may be filtered southward (especially in the upper atmosphere). No true arctic air should be involved though, so extreme cold is not likely. However, a "chilly" Christmas time is looking more and more likely.

[HarlequinBoy]

Hmm, well maybe it will get cold around Christmas or just after.

The NWS in Lubbock is forecasting some freezing rain next week. They have an SWS out.

[Ptarmigan]

I cant stand this warm winter weather it just sucks....

This is December, it is suppose to be cold. I hope it does get cold soon.

[JonathanBelles]

I cant stand this warm winter weather it just sucks....

This is December, it is suppose to be cold. I hope it does get cold soon.

it just doesnt feel like christmas

[jasons2k]

Wow, Bush will hit 80F today for sure! Looks like the TV guys were right again.

what? It is only 77F there right now, and the NWS is calling for 77F as the high. Though it is possible they hit 80F, there is just no way to make a call like "they will hit it for sure" just yet. Also, what TV guys are you talking about? Though Fox26 forecasted 80s a few days back..many other local stations only forecasted upper 70s.

BTW, the latest TV station forecasts for today look like this:

NBC Chan. 2 = 79F
ABC Chan. 13 = 79F
KHOU chan. 11 = 77F

Doesn't look like any of them are forecasting 80F for a high this afternoon.

Whatever - when I made my post it was 79F. I pay for real-time obs. I knew for sure it was going to hit 80F and it did. If you have an issue with the number, put one of your own out.

Also, the only comment in the thread earlier this week was about 26 forecasting 80s. That's what I saw on Fox last night, and it was right.

[f5]

i miss that warm weather back home i hate being stationed up in washington state

[CajunMama]

jschlitz...in the daily obs for houston it's recorded that it hit 80°. You were correct. They're official and it's recorded.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 0Z GFS is very interesting! It now shows a major winter storm hitting TX on Christmas Eve and Christmas day! Check it out:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _180.shtml
^^Christmas Eve morning. Cold front is pushing through Houston with heavy rains/storms. In west and central TX, winter precip. is falling.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Christmas Eve evening. Winter precip. reaches SE Texas! Surface temperatures are in the 30s, but most of the atmosphere is falling near or below 32F with the 540 thickness line not too far away.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml
^^Christmas morning. With the atmosphere now below freezing and the 540 thickness line reaching Houston...most of the remaining precip. falls as flurries or light snow. Surface temps. fall to freezing or below for many in the state.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^Christmas evening. After a very cold day, temperatures are back into the 30s by evening with a pocket of cold atmosphere overhead. By this point, most of the moisture should be moving out, however a small flurry chance still seems possible.^^

For all of you wanting a white Christmas...PRAY this run verifys! I know I will be! (However, I need at least a 3 more runs showing a similar solution before I buy into it as being a true possibility. The GFS at day 7/8 cannot be fully trusted.)

[wxman22]

I saw the same thing it deffentily looks intresting if this paned out not only would we get frozen precipe but also HEAVY frozen precip... BEARS WATCHING

[Johnny]

I bet you were glad to see that huh EWG? I know I was. lol I sure hope the GFS shows this again in future runs!

[KatDaddy]

From this mornings Houston-Galveston AFD:

LOOKING EVEN FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED AND ASSUMING ECMWF/GFS BOTH
END UP BEING RIGHT...XMAS EVE AND XMAS DAY COULD GET KINDA
INTERESTING. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WHILE A DEEP MID
LEVEL TROF EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO CNTRL MEXICO PROVIDES
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE

[Portastorm]

Even JB this morning said snow into "central Texas" by the weekend.

Did I say I love the GFS?

[JonathanBelles]

i love the GFS too. i like the 27ths forecast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From this mornings Houston-Galveston AFD:

LOOKING EVEN FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED AND ASSUMING ECMWF/GFS BOTH
END UP BEING RIGHT...XMAS EVE AND XMAS DAY COULD GET KINDA
INTERESTING. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WHILE A DEEP MID
LEVEL TROF EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO CNTRL MEXICO PROVIDES
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE

wow, that is interesting katdaddy. I am amazed the Houston-Galveston AFD is even mentioning something like this a week in advance.

[double D]

Even JB this morning said snow into "central Texas" by the weekend.

Did I say I love the GFS?

It is a bit more encouraging since it is showing snow on day 8 instead of day 16. Although this is a flip flop from yesterday runs, it will be very interesting to monitor the future runs of the GFS.
Btw, what is the EURO showing for Christimas day?