Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[wxman22]

12z GFS shows a little more moisture to work with but still most of it moves to the east by the time the cold air gets here(only resulting in a few flurries or sleet pellets at most) but non the less its a step in the right direction...

[srainhoutx]

What we need to watch is how far S the Upper Trough digs. This has been the fly in the ointment all year regarding these Upper system and that would be the feature that some of the WFO's are latching on to. You'll see places like Dodge City and MO NWS talking about this feature. If any precip issues happen for TX, it would likely be from the Upper disturbance in the 500mb level and for those further S any STJ or Coastal Trough development that has be persistant all season IMHO.

[Texas2Florida]

Iam sorry but what are the broadcast perosnalities.

The ones who are there giving the weather live on TV, their forecast is a bit different from the local on the 8's screen, at least for my zip code or however they do it.

[cheezyWXguy]

weather.com says for me, rain/snow on sunday w/ a high of 40, rain/snow on wed w/ a high of 39, changing to snow showers that night, and a high of 27 on thursday...

[Ntxw]

weather.com says for me, rain/snow on sunday w/ a high of 40, rain/snow on wed w/ a high of 39, changing to snow showers that night, and a high of 27 on thursday...

I wouldn't put too much money into TWC's forecast. Much of the time is straight out of the models without human input, that is why it hardly ever makes sense with the temps and precip amount\times\types lol...your NWS forecast is probably many times more accurate.

[iorange55]

Over at the KHOU forum wxman57 posted this of the 1989 arctic outbreak

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/figure8.png



http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/figure9.png



People had been saying it was a 1060+ high when that wasn't the case. It was 1054 dropping down into the U.S. which is not far from what this one is showing at 1052. This one weakens faster, but that is something that can change. Obviously other factors go into play like how cold the airmass is it's dragging down, and we won't know that till a little closer to the event. I'm not saying this will be like 1989, but just wanted to point out it may not be as an extreme different set-up than people thought. My opinion is that the event won't hold as it is it'll either modify itself, or it'll be considerably colder than what the models are showing. Just have to wait and see how cold the air is that it's dragging down.

[cheezyWXguy]

weather.com says for me, rain/snow on sunday w/ a high of 40, rain/snow on wed w/ a high of 39, changing to snow showers that night, and a high of 27 on thursday...

I wouldn't put too much money into TWC's forecast. Much of the time is straight out of the models without human input, that is why it hardly ever makes sense with the temps and precip amount\times\types lol...your NWS forecast is probably many times more accurate.

I know, its fun to look at though. Besides, NWS shows snow wed and wed night with highs only in the low-mid 30's on thursday. If the precip comes, this event seems to have a good chance of occuring

[srainhoutx]

Over at the KHOU forum wxman57 posted this of the 1989 arctic outbreak

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/figure8.png



http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/figure9.png



People had been saying it was a 1060+ high when that wasn't the case. It was 1054 dropping down into the U.S. which is not far from what this one is showing at 1052. This one weakens faster, but that is something that can change. Obviously other factors go into play like how cold the airmass is it's dragging down, and we won't know that till a little closer to the event. I'm not saying this will be like 1989, but just wanted to point out it may not be as an extreme different set-up than people thought. My opinion is that the event won't hold as it is it'll either modify itself, or it'll be considerably colder than what the models are showing. Just have to wait and see how cold the air is that it's dragging down.

It is also note worthy that wxman57 stated this does not look like a 1983 or 1989 event as well. He is posting regarding what we in Houston my see and I suspect he will be posting here as well in the not too distant future.

[gofrogs]

One intresting note would be that it is very common occurence for the gfs to have a storm only to loose it but bring it back on as we get closer to the event. I think that is what is happening here. we shall see.

[wxman22]

One intresting note would be that it is very common occurence for the gfs to have a storm only to loose it but bring it back on as we get closer to the event. I think that is what is happening here. we shall see.

I was thinking the exact same thing as the Gfs a couple of days ago was showing a winter storm across the south for next Wednesday /Thursday but then it suppressed it so it will be interesting to see if it brings it back in strength over the next couple of days.

[srainhoutx]

The GGEM continues the trend. What is note worthy is in the 144 hour time frame to our W along S CA in the Upper levels with another disturbance heading toward Northern Mexico. This feature has been on the ECMWF for a couple of days. We will see if that trend continues on the EC 12Z run.

[iorange55]

The GGEM continues the trend. What is note worthy is in the 144 hour time frame to our W along S CA in the Upper levels with another disturbance heading toward Northern Mexico. This feature has been on the ECMWF for a couple of days. We will see if that trend continues on the EC 12Z run.

Does it also show a 1057 mb high? Or am I seeing things/looking at it wrong?

[srainhoutx]

The GGEM continues the trend. What is note worthy is in the 144 hour time frame to our W along S CA in the Upper levels with another disturbance heading toward Northern Mexico. This feature has been on the ECMWF for a couple of days. We will see if that trend continues on the EC 12Z run.

Does it also show a 1057 mb high? Or am I seeing things/looking at it wrong?

It does.

[gofrogs]

So what does all of this mean.

[txagwxman]

Actually for DFW TWC is better than NWS for the first 2 days, NWS better days 4-5.
I keep track.

12z ECMWF probably more realistic, low 20s into Houston Saturday vs teens.

[mrgolf]

Would you mind posting the link to the 12zeuro?Hasnt updated on psuewall yet

[txagwxman]

Would you mind posting the link to the 12zeuro?Hasnt updated on psuewall yet

I pay extra for it.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF

Wow look at that line that goes from Mexico to Cuba.

[srainhoutx]

Brownsville thoughts this afternoon...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
204 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...THE 500 MB FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES
WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH
BROAD AND DEEP TROFFING PREVAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. A STEADY PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SUPPLY OF
COOLER CANADIAN AIR OVER THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMALS FOR EARLY JANUARY. A E-SE LOW LEVEL WILL RETURN TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHOT CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN INTO MON AND TUES. MORE WAA IS EXPECTED
ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS ANOTHER MIDWEST SURFACE LOW SPINS UP
RESULTING IN A S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEN YET ANOTHER STRONG
CANADIAN COLD FRONT BULLDOZES THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WED
WITH PRETTY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT THURS THROUGH NEXT SAT.
DECENT OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED IN BOTH THE SHORT
TERM AND LONGER RANGE PERIODS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPAS. WILL
PLACE THE BEST POPS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO
CWA WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SURFACE COASTAL TROFFING WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE MOST ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. FOR BOTH
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM TEMPS WILL UNDERCUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE A
BIT AS BELIEVE THAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO AGGRESSIVE FOR HIGH
TEMPS. WILL GO WITH THE LOWER MAV POPS IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE
NAM POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MEX
TEMPS AND POPS LOOKS GOOD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

[gofrogs]

any precip with it.