Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

Both the 0z/6z GFS and 0z Euro showing a heckuva winter storm in Texas at 240 hours (around 1/22-1/23).

[TheProfessor]

Of Course there would be a Winter Storm on those days I'm supposed to head down to San Antonio of the Penny Arcade Exposition

[Ralph's Weather]

Anyone seeing icing issues across North Texas? We have heavy drizzle here with temps in the mid 30s so wondering about areas that are below freezing.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Anyone setting icing issues across North Texas? We have heavy drizzle here with temps in the mid 30s so wondering about areas that are below freezing.

I am confounded by this. My weather station says 32 with a dp of 30, my car says 31. There is a steady but drifting drizzle, but not a hint of ice. Par for this winter.

[Ralph's Weather]

Anyone setting icing issues across North Texas? We have heavy drizzle here with temps in the mid 30s so wondering about areas that are below freezing.

I am confounded by this. My weather station says 32 with a dp of 30, my car says 31. There is a steady but drifting drizzle, but not a hint of ice. Par for this winter.

Interesting, a degree or two colder and yall could have seen a surprise icy rush hour. I imagine some spots NW of you have some icing though it gets drier as you go that way.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Both the 0z/6z GFS and 0z Euro showing a heckuva winter storm in Texas at 240 hours (around 1/22-1/23).

Driving to Colorado on the 24th too. Yippie.

[BigB0882]

Both the 0z/6z GFS and 0z Euro showing a heckuva winter storm in Texas at 240 hours (around 1/22-1/23).

And let me guess, a blow torch just a little ways over to the East here in Louisiana?

[Portastorm]

Both the 0z/6z GFS and 0z Euro showing a heckuva winter storm in Texas at 240 hours (around 1/22-1/23).

And let me guess, a blow torch just a little ways over to the East here in Louisiana?

This far out, who knows. As it is, these aforementioned model runs show wintry precipitation primarily in west Texas and the Panhandle. It would be a cold rain east of there. As wxman57 has advised us, one should pay more attention to the 500mb pattern progged by the models at this range as well as the temperatures in the source region of where the air is coming from. Below is the 0z Euro at 240 hours. To me it looks like a cold trough but nothing which would bring air down from the Arctic as the polar jet and the southern jet do not look like they're in sync.



As someone mentioned on the local KHOU forum, this winter has actually been fairly typical for a weak El Nino for Texas (maybe Louisiana too). We've generally averaged below normal in November and January and slightly above normal precip. The air has been cold but not cold enough to create widespread wintry precip. That's actually fairly typical in these parts for a Nino. A neutral pattern or even a Nina pattern tend to bring down the coldest airmasses in the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast regions.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Last night or yesterday, one of the models was showing at 11-13 days out a huge winter storm in the rocky mountain region. Been watching that area since im going skiing soon

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ryan Maue. Models seeing -AO. https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/555030069505048576
Effect of SSW starting to show.
https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/5 ... 3040055297

[TexLady]

A friend of mine, living in San Angelo, said it was snowing, albeit very light, about an hour ago.

[wxman57]

Both the 0z/6z GFS and 0z Euro showing a heckuva winter storm in Texas at 240 hours (around 1/22-1/23).

I can't find anything but maybe some light snow in the northern Panhandle and northern OK around those dates, Portastorm. What are you looking at?

[Portastorm]

Both the 0z/6z GFS and 0z Euro showing a heckuva winter storm in Texas at 240 hours (around 1/22-1/23).

I can't find anything but maybe some light snow in the northern Panhandle and northern OK around those dates, Portastorm. What are you looking at?

[wxman57]

Had to look hard to find that, Portastorm. The frozen precip only shows up on the 00Z GFS, not the 06Z GFS or the GFS parallel run 00z/06Z or the 00z Euro. Any frozen precip would likely be confined to higher elevations in west Texas or the panhandle.

Aren't you tired of all this cold, nasty weather? Wouldn't some mid 90s feel good about now?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My friends in houston are depressed saying they havent seen the sun in weeks lol.

[dhweather]

There was a guy on KRLD (Dallas AM 1080) this morning talking about the El Nino, or lack thereof, and the decreasing chances of it happening. I paraphrase "It was 70%, then 60% now it's a 50% chance of developing"


I should look him up and tell him my official term for this is Faux Nino.

[weatherdude1108]

There was a guy on KRLD (Dallas AM 1080) this morning talking about the El Nino, or lack thereof, and the decreasing chances of it happening. I paraphrase "It was 70%, then 60% now it's a 50% chance of developing"


I should look him up and tell him my official term for this is Faux Nino.

I've also heard other terms like El Limbo and El Nono thrown around. Depressing.

[weatherdude1108]

Both the 0z/6z GFS and 0z Euro showing a heckuva winter storm in Texas at 240 hours (around 1/22-1/23).

I can't find anything but maybe some light snow in the northern Panhandle and northern OK around those dates, Portastorm. What are you looking at?

Aren't you tired of all this cold, nasty weather? Wouldn't some mid 90s feel good about now?[/quote]

Although tempting when it in the 30s and 40s and cloudy day after day, we can't give in to the dark side Porta! We will have our warmth in due time. All of the extremely long-range guidance models are unanimous in bringing mid 90s-100s in 3700 hours.

[wxman57]

There was a guy on KRLD (Dallas AM 1080) this morning talking about the El Nino, or lack thereof, and the decreasing chances of it happening. I paraphrase "It was 70%, then 60% now it's a 50% chance of developing"


I should look him up and tell him my official term for this is Faux Nino.

I thought it was almost a certainty (El Nino)?

Sept-Oct-Nov averaged +.5C. Oct-Nov-Dec averaged +.7C. All that is needed is for Nov-Dec-Jan to average +.5C or warmer to have an official El Nino (I believe), and that looks like a good possibility, though the Nino 3.4 region just dropped to +.4C.

[dhweather]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html


CPC says "El Nino WATCH"

Synopsis: There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions during the next two months, with ENSO-neutral favored thereafter.



So I think we can go ahead and nail that "El Nino" coffin shut, not happening.