Texas Winter 2016-2017

[JayDT]

I just recorded a winter weather video (not my favorite) and I did mention snow flurries up in the D-FW area for tomorrow. Possibly some light accumulations in grassy areas, but not enough to cause any travel issues. Possibly light freezing drizzle with sleet for you in Austin, Portastorm. Cold rain for me, though I wouldn't rule out a stray sleet pellet. I suppose I can tolerate 3 days of cold, followed by 3 weeks of not-so-cold. Might need to put my second electric blanket into service on the couch this weekend.

One of my cats is also a heat-miser. She doesn't leave me much room for my feet. Oreo was one of two of my mother's cats that we inherited after she passed away last Mother's Day.

http://i68.tinypic.com/2yxn8cm.jpg

Well now im definitely hopeful for some snow around here! Even if it's not a lot.

[hriverajr]

Three weeks 57? Now your trolling us

[orangeblood]

Porta - checked out the HRRR Model yet ???

[orangeblood]

Even less than 36 hrs from this event, the Euro ENS members vary quite significantly for portions of North Texas and even South Central Texas...tough forecast considering anything that is falling will likely freeze on contact

[gboudx]

Snippet from Steve McCauley:

...
And now that we are within 24 hours of the predicted wintry precipitation, it is possible to tell with even more confidence just how light the snow will be. It will be less than 1 inch in most areas, but about 50% of north Texas will see snow in the air tomorrow afternoon. The best - but perhaps not only - chances to see snowflakes will be north of I-20 with the best - but perhaps not only - chances for the light accumulations expected along the Red River Counties and perhaps even the northern portions of the Metroplex.
...

[Portastorm]

Porta - checked out the HRRR Model yet ???

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_18.png

Hadn't seen it yet. Thanks orangeblood!

[Ntxw]

Second day in a row DFW's high is 40. Next two days will likely not hit 40. Pretty good for a cold snap...remember last year when we couldn't even buy a day in the 40s? GFS MOS is 27/15 for DFW, 30F and low Sat 16-19 is a good call I think

[CaptinCrunch]

A cold front continues to advance south through the region with
wind speeds picking up out of the north as the front moves
through. Temperatures across all but our far southern counties
will remain nearly steady and/or fall a few degrees for the
remainder of the day. Cloud cover will persist for much of the day
behind the front, and with wind speeds of 10-20 mph producing
wind chill readings several degrees lower than the actual
temperatures, it will feel down right chilly behind the front.
Overall the forecast was in good shape and only made minor changes
to update hourly trends. Also, removed the mention of light
drizzle in the southeast for this afternoon.

Regarding the potential for snow tonight through Friday...at this
time, the current forecast still looks valid and will not make any
changes at this time. The best snow chances remain north of the
Red River where all the models agree the best lift and
frontogenesis is forecast to be. Some lift is expected to drift
south of the river, especially in the mid morning through
afternoon hours. The latest model data indicates this lift will
not be overly strong but enough to produce at least light snow
mainly north of Interstate 20. If there are going to be any
impacts to travel due to accumulations of snow on roads (snow
totals <1"), it appears the most likely area will be along and
north of a Bowie to Sulphur Springs line. Closer to the I-20
corridor, a light dusting of snow may accumulate. Farther south, a
few flurries will be possible Friday afternoon and/or evening but
drier air is quickly invading the region by that time and the
overall lift across our Central Texas counties looks minimal at
this time.

[Snowman67]

Im going to Colorado and Oregon for a few months soon. So I know i'll see at least some snow, but theres nothing like seeing some snow at HOME... It's more exciting for some reason.

Considering that I live in southern Dallas County, i'm pretty sure I have even less of a chance of seeing at least some snow than those in the northern parts. I guess i'll just hold off any excitement till I get to Colorado and Oregon.

You have a pretty decent chance of seeing snow. Just a dusting+ is more likely in the northern counties. Mesoscale features for these light events can sometimes give you a little more

NTW -Your comment reminds me of a time several years ago when my children were young. They were forecasting a good bit of snow for the Waco area, so I packed up the car and kids and headed to visit my parents in Waco the evening before. By the time the afternoon NWS discussion came out the next day, they had taken the chance of snow completely out of the forecast, so I decided to head back home. I think I was somewhere south of College Station when my phone rang - it was my mom letting me know that the snow was really coming down. They ended up picking up a quick couple of inches. Just my luck...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Currently 28 with a windchill of 14. Looks like they have changed the forecast again to a 30% chance of snow tonight and a 60% transitioning to a 30% chance tomorrow.

[weatherdude1108]

The EWX region mentions a few spots in the 10s Saturday morning for a few counties in the NE part of the CWA. All this wasted cold, then a dry, warm pattern with no rain. Good jogging weather I must admit, but blah.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 052050
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed zonal flow across most of
the country. At the surface, a cold front was stretched from
Victoria to Fort Stockton. Behind the front winds were from the
north while ahead of it they were light and variable. This front
will continue to the south and much colder air will move in behind
it. There will be a chance for rain over parts of the south and
east, but any precipitation should be in areas where the
temperatures will remain above freezing and should be rain.
Strong, gusty northerly winds will move in tonight and continue
through the day Friday especially over the eastern half of the
CWA. Temperatures will be much colder with lows below freezing
along and northwest of I-35. High temperatures Friday will be
mostly in the 30s and lows Saturday will be mostly in the 20s with
a few spots in the northeast in the 10s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Saturday will begin a slow warming trend with highs in the middle
40s. Lows will again be in the 20s Sunday. Sunday an upper level
ridge will begin to move in from the west and move slowly across
the Southern Plains. This will bring an extended dry period that
will last to the end of the period. Temperatures will warm each
day until Wednesday and then flatten. We should see middle 70s by
the middle of the week.

[TheProfessor]

Man the air felt amazing on my legs, much better then the 60s and 70s.

[aggiecutter]

NWS Shreveport just issued a winter weather advisories to the counties just to my north. I woudn't be surprised to see those advisories shifted to the south to include the adjacent counties of NE Texas and SW Arkansas:

[Brent]

I really wish I was in North Carolina on Saturday.

Otherwise I won't lie... I'm looking forward to a warmup. This cold and blah is getting old.

[JayDT]

Did they just update the high for tomorrow to 27??

[WacoWx]

Same here. High 27, and upped the 20% snow to 30%.

[Cerlin]

When was the last actual accumulative snowfall in DFW? March of 2015? However long it's been, I'm ready for snow now.

[Brent]

When was the last actual accumulative snowfall in DFW? March of 2015? However long it's been, I'm ready for snow now.

Yep March 4-5, 2015... best snowstorm I had seen in years.

I haven't even personally seen flakes since..

[Wntrwthrguy]

You Dallas folks crack me up. I'm not sure those in Austin want to hear complaints about not having snow in 22 months. I can't remember the last time I actually saw flakes fly. It has been almost 6 years since I saw snow on the ground. We have either been too far south or too far north (2004 as well as a few others). The Omega block sure is strong in these parts.

[Brent]

To be fair it's supposed to snow most years in Dallas...

I'm still annoyed last year had a trace because 10 flakes fell at the airport...