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TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:This one is really starting to look interesting.....Euro ENS, All Operationals and Euro Control going pretty wild with storm next week
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/z500_anom/1643112000/1643803200-tkJcrEvxmBA.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850/1643112000/1643889600-HjReyOzS2Jg.png
Models have done some sig flip flopping in particular the ensembles. -PNA is now gone early Feb. Ridging east and west coast, good for TX.
I really hate to compare Feb '21, but i dont remember what factors led to the over the top blocking and the PV dropping down. The look at the end of the run does look good for Texas. I noticed that cyclonic wave breaking on the east coast is what leads to the PV coming down some and setting up the pattern at the end of the run. Is that what happened in the week or so leading up to 2/21?
I love looking at long range for educational purposes. It shows what we want to see, often, but it also shows what it takes to get there in the hours leading up to epic freezes or snowstorms in the long range.
Feb 21' was the classic case of a January Strat Warm event setting the stage for PV displacement further south during February....the location of the PV displacement happened to occur in just the right location (southern Canada) and for an abnormally long period of time that made the event so extraordinary for the Southern Plains.
The potential this Feb looks to be more Negative EPO/WPO driven, cross Polar flow with an occasional PV displacement across southern Canada....could go extreme if the Teleconnections line up just right
Last nights Euro illustrates the potential - cross polar flow digging into a Central US long wave trough with a lob of the PV heading due south out of Northern Canada. To go extreme, I'd imagine we'd need either a Greenland Block to lock the cold in or the negative EPO/WPO regime to lock in for an extended period of time sending PV lobs down every few days
