Texas Winter 2012-2013

[wxman57]

I want some frozen precipitation in Houston. Snow, perhaps? Dadgummit.

No snow for you! RUC sounding for Houston indicates a shallow layer of cold (near freezing) air right near the surface but rising temps above that - up to 50F just 5000 feet above the ground. Can't get snow in that environment, though sleet is possible in northern Harris County as that shallow cold air layer near the surface is JUST below freezing about 1000 ft up.

By tomorrow morning, model soundings indicate that the air aloft cools down enough to allow for snow, but there is no moisture apart from a thin mid-level cloud deck.

[Stormcenter]

Too much model love here folks.....we all should know by now they're not always correct. Just look how good of job they did during the past hurricane season. So why should it be any different during the Winter? If you like cold air then you'll love next week even more. IMO

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Gotta love the SW flow. This kind of reminds me of 1997 when we had the ice storm. The last few days were similar except we were about 10 degrees cooler lol. Remember we had 3 or 4 days of below or near freezing temps with frz rain about every 12 hours. Similar setup.

I was also reminded of a time in high school, around 2001, where there was thunder and lightning the morning just before school, and it was 34 degrees I was broken hearted driving to school that morning.

It was worse then since it NEVER snowed very often in the 90's for us.

[South Texas Storms]

It looks like there is plenty of moisture out there right now, courtesy of the subtropical jet.
Water vapor satellite image: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... duration=0

[GaryHughes]

I have been up since 1:00 this morning watching the radar when the first blip on the radar showed up, needless to say I've been working ever since.

The guys have been working hard to keep the roads safe as possible.

[somethingfunny]

I have been up since 1:00 this morning watching the radar when the first blip on the radar showed up, needless to say I've been working ever since.

The guys have been working hard to keep the roads safe as possible.

Thank you so much. The job that y'all do really goes underappreciated around here. Now if only they'd add winter driving to driver's ed courses, the roads would be perfectly safe!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Third time this winter DFW airport has recorded snow, and it likely won't be the last. Winter of can do!

I hope that you are all satisfied up there now. You've had your winter, now it's time to move on to spring and summer. Unfortunately, the coastal water temps are so cold now that it's going to make for a miserable spring. Any onshore flow will result in clouds, drizzle and fog vs. warm sunshine.

Tell me about me it. Fishing for trout around here is a lost cause right now as water temps have been below 50 since new years eve.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... LATEST.jpg


Another look at the Pacific

[dhweather]

I have been up since 1:00 this morning watching the radar when the first blip on the radar showed up, needless to say I've been working ever since.

The guys have been working hard to keep the roads safe as possible.

The often "unthanked" warriors that have to get up and go on little notice on events like today. I'm sure in some cases, they've had to try and navigate through terrible traffic just to get to the really bad spots on bridges/overpasses/onramps just to get in position to try and help.

I think I can speak for all of us, we greatly appreciate what you guys do!

[dhweather]

What a mess driving my 3rd grader to school. Roads were slippery. The ISD should've delayed for 2 hours like many others had done.

After navigating through all that to get mine dropped off at school on time, I get a text around 8:30 from Rockwall ISD that "your student won't be counted as tardy if they are late" gee, thanks.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Can we get an update on the next's week potential Arctic outbreak?

Current model guidance indicates next week will not be as cold as this week. Models backed off on any Arctic air intrusion several days ago.

Are you talking about Texas specifically? Cause this is from Jackson ms long range discussion

FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD ON THE
ANTICIPATED CLIPPER-TYPE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SPURRED BY
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING POLAR VORTEX BREAKDOWN (WHICH OCCURRED SOME 5
DAYS AGO). THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRY...BUT DEFINITELY HAS A
SHOT AT BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEX GUIDANCE IS TRENDING IN THIS
DIRECTION...BUT IS HAMPERED BY RELIANCE ON CLIMO THAT FAR OUT.
THEREFORE I GENERALLY CUT TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT YET FULLY REPRESENT HOW COLD IT MIGHT GET
DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME RANGE.

[Rgv20]

Interesting tidbit from the NWS in Brownsville..

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BROAD TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
US WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST TO MAINTAIN A DRY
MID TO UPPER NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER TEXAS WITH A SLOW
RECOVERY OF GULF MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. CHILLY NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS WITH A SLOW RECOVERY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. DONT SEE THE
SUBTROPICAL JET MAKING A BIG IMPACT ON CLOUD COVER SO EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A
LOOK FARTHER OUT INDICATES AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS ENTERING TEXAS NEXT MONDAY AND WORKING ITS WAY INTO OUR
REGION NEXT TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST AIR TO MISS US TO THE
EAST BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING AS THIS WILL BE ADVERTISED AS
A TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS.

[Portastorm]

I think for the Mississippi Valley, both the GFS and Euro prog some very cold air early next week. For Texas, the European is much colder than the GFS namely because the European has a sharper ridge on the West Coast.

[somethingfunny]

[gboudx]

What a mess driving my 3rd grader to school. Roads were slippery. The ISD should've delayed for 2 hours like many others had done.

After navigating through all that to get mine dropped off at school on time, I get a text around 8:30 from Rockwall ISD that "your student won't be counted as tardy if they are late" gee, thanks.

Yeah, got the same text and phone calls. Then my 7th grader texts my wife to say they aren't taking attendance so she can come get him from school. Yeah, nice try. See you at 4.

[Ntxw]

I concur with somethingfunny and dhweather, keep up the good work!

Hopefully the crews had ample time to prepare for such an event. Kudos to FW for keeping mention late last week about possible wintry precip. Pattern recognition sometimes perform better than models. NE Pac ridge in heart of winter = be ready

[CaptinCrunch]

I think the .5 should be all of Tarrant Co as I had at least that on my car and in the yard this morning.

[somethingfunny]

I had about an inch. That leaf sat in the shade and is all melted now - so we're above freezing.

Check out the texture of this stuff though... at least at my house in southern Garland, it was mostly DippinDots. Thundergraupel.

My uncle called it Snaufel.

[wxman57]

Can we get an update on the next's week potential Arctic outbreak?

Current model guidance indicates next week will not be as cold as this week. Models backed off on any Arctic air intrusion several days ago.

Are you talking about Texas specifically? Cause this is from Jackson ms long range discussion

FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD ON THE
ANTICIPATED CLIPPER-TYPE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SPURRED BY
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING POLAR VORTEX BREAKDOWN (WHICH OCCURRED SOME 5
DAYS AGO). THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRY...BUT DEFINITELY HAS A
SHOT AT BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEX GUIDANCE IS TRENDING IN THIS
DIRECTION...BUT IS HAMPERED BY RELIANCE ON CLIMO THAT FAR OUT.
THEREFORE I GENERALLY CUT TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT YET FULLY REPRESENT HOW COLD IT MIGHT GET
DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME RANGE.

Was talking about Houston, specifically.

[TrekkerCC]

folks - if you want to play around with dual polarization data, you can download and use this free software (it's available for PC and Mac) that has the ability to display dual polarization data: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/weatherscope <---- I would recommend it not just for the radar data it can display, but it is a fantastic free weather software in general as you can display temperature, wind, etc. It's was developed to be used as part of the OU mesonet, but you can download NWS data as well. You do have to play around with the software to learn how to use, but once you get the hang of it, you should have no problems with it.